Brexit, May's Way is Worst Way: Eight Hardball Cards
In a Mises wire, Daniel Lacalle explains May’s Way Is Not The Only Way.
In a nutshell, May’s Brexit is the worst solution for Leavers and Remainders. It tries to please Remainders, who are obviously not satisfied as they want a full reversal of the EU exit.
In essence, the plan is the worst of both worlds. Leaves the UK with all the perceived negatives that led to a “Yes” vote in the referendum and none of the alleged benefits of staying in the European Union.
May’s way is not the only way. The UK should deliver a strong Brexit proposal that creates certainty, that eliminates the excessive costs and regulations. There is a reason why the EU has a “Canadian” or “Norwegian” solution because they were created ad-hoc for those countries. May fails to recognize the strengths of the UK to achieve a specific “British solution” that is good for both parties. She seems to accept at face value that the EU rules, those that the EU itself bends at will, are untouchable.
This political crisis adds uncertainty to business, gross capital formation, and job creation, but also diminishes the UK government’s influence on crucial international matters. Instead of delivering a message of strength, May has delivered a message of uncertainty.
I would have preferred the UK to stay in the EU and be a driving force for change and renovation, for freedom. But Brexit happened. And now the government is putting the economy at risk by creating an unnecessary political crisis that may affect many important sectors, while ignoring the results of the vote.
Brexit should have been a serious warning to the increasingly interventionist European Union to change its ways and should have been negotiated swiftly from the position of strength that the UK had as the second largest net contributor to the EU. It should have been a fantastic opportunity for both the EU and the UK to thrive. Instead, May has done the job for Brussels showing the European Union is an unchangeable entity, like the Hotel California where “you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave”.
May’s “my way or the highway” plan has strengthened the EU’s stubborn resistance to change.
May's Way, the Worst Way
May's way is not the only way is accurate but fails to sum of the problem. May's way is the worst way more accurately sums up the current situation.
Lacalle was a bit too polite with his title.
Point of Disagreement
On what point do I disagree with Lacalle?
It a point that is irrelevant at the moment. I was in favor of Brexit. The EU is a slow, colossal, bureaucratic mess that take near-unanimity to do most anything, and absolute unanimity on some things.
For example, France will never agree to end subsides that protect inefficient farmers. That one point alone is why it took the EU 10 years to negotiate a deal with Canada.
Water Over the Dam
That's water over the dam now.
May's tactic has been to bow down to the EU instead of playing hardball. Se has a huge number of cards to play, and in this regard, Trump helped.
Eight Hardball Cards
- Iran sanctions hurt the EU, especially Germany.
- Trump clearly has it in for German autos.
- The German auto industry is already on the ropes over diesel emissions.
- The EU is hugely impacted by Trump's trade war with China.
- If the UK walks, the EU will lose the $39 billion Brexit fee.
- The UK can close fishing rights and take control of its waters.
- Germany cannot afford to get into multiple simultaneous trade wars with the US, China, and UK.
- The UK can further lower business taxes.
Think about that last point until it sinks in.
The UK is one of Germany's biggest export recipients.
Prepared to Walk
This is no time for May to cave into to nonsensical EU demand.
Rather, this is the time from May to lay those eight cards on the tables and say "We are prepared to walk. What are you going to do about it?"
Mike "Mish" Shedlock