Brazil Is the New Covid-19 Epicenter

Mish

Brazil just passed Russia in total cases. Population adjusted, Brazil is a disaster.

Deaths in the EU are on the wane, and more slowly in the US as well. But Brazil is another matter.

In addition to being the new epicenter, Brazil's Indigenous People are Dying at an Alarming Rate.

Far from hospitals and often lacking basic infrastructure, Brazil's indigenous people are dying at an alarming rate from Covid-19 with little help in sight.

The mortality rate is double that of the rest of Brazil's population, according to advocacy group Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB) which tracks the number of cases and deaths among the country's 900,000 indigenous people.

APIB has recorded more than 980 officially confirmed cases of coronavirus and at least 125 deaths, which suggests a mortality rate of 12.6 percent -- compared to the national rate of 6.4 percent.

US Deaths Approach 100,000

Meanwhile, the chart shows US deaths will top the 100,000 mark within a week, most likely a few days.

Daily Confirmed Covid-19 Deaths

Daily Confirmed Covid-19 Deaths 2020-05-23

Brazil, India, and Russia are in uptrends, Brazil alarmingly so.

Flattening Curves

Total Confirmned Covid-19 Cases

The European Union has flattened the case curve more than the US. 

Yet, whereas the US was the leading contributor of cases, it's now the rest of the  world.

Unfortunately, there are massive undercounts in Brazil, Russia, India, and Africa. So globally, it's worse than it looks.

In the US, the primary concerns have shifted significantly.

US Primary Concern Shift 

  • Reopening Too Soon
  • Abandoning Social Distancing Too Soon
  • Return of Covid-19 in Autumn
  • Vaccine will not be ready in time or will not work

Reopening is fine, and arguably overdue. But by all means, get out and enjoy the sunshine. 

But that does not mean throwing caution to the wind. Packed restaurants, bars, and churches are not good to say the least.

Sharing microphones in crowded bars is a definite no-no regardless of what officials permit. 

For now, my karaoke weekends will have to wait. 

Mish

Comments (59)
No. 1-18
TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Reopening = More Covid cases.

That was the plan all along. The closing was to allow hospitals time to get prepared. Then something happened. It became a solution.

It’s not a solution. It’s a stopgap. The solutions are herd immunity or a vaccine.

A warp speed vaccine is a pipe dream at this point. Mid-2021 would be a miracle.

There will be more lockdown. My state will be out of hospital beds by July at current climb rates.

Brazil looks smart for realizing this early.

Sechel
Sechel

Brazil is in the Southern hemisphere. Their spike now gives weight to the idea that cooler months are friendlier to the virus. As far as the indigenous and poor getting hit harder this also seems to be the pattern. With wealth comes living further apart and with less contact.

No shock that Europe is flattening better than the U.S. The major European leaders are acting responsibly and not contradicting their own countries health guidance recommendations. If ever there was a key metric for failing as a leader this is a huge one right here.

There's also this mistaken notion in the United States that social distancing and wearing a mask is a choice and if you're not comfortable with the risks of contact you can simply stay home. I guess we could adapt that model to traffic lights. We can make personal choices to follow them or not drive. But it's not just our own lives but the lives of others we risk when going through a red light or not wearing a mask. Simple concept. But we're a bunch of self-entitled children in this country encouraged by the President. The result can only mean more infections and death. Should be a simple concept but it eludes far too many.

Quatloo
Quatloo

Good analysis. I’m kind of amazed that India is managing to control things so well given the population density there, though I agree that reporting is probably not very accurate.

Sechel
Sechel

I suspect if you pulled NY out of the U.S. statistics things would be seen as worsening. Maybe if you pull out California it looks even worse. The areas of the country not hit hard initially believe the entire pandeic is a hoax and need to have the bejesus scared out of them to take it more seriously.

njbr
njbr

A new strain?

In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49.

By the way, direct flights from Brazil/USA are still operating...

njbr
njbr

<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYufcu3UYAE3RVd?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" alt="Image"/>

SyTuck
SyTuck

I think you're being quick to call reopening "fine" and Brazil the new epicenter Mitch. The US is still number one in many aspects of your chart above.

When looking at the new cases trend, there are early signs of a bottoming (here in Canada too btw). People are getting antsy and calling things "fine" too soon. We will have a second wave well before August. And because we're starting from a base of 1M+ (known) infections, the upswing will be brutal.

Jdog1
Jdog1

I fully expect a 2nd wave now that the people believe the danger is over. They will do all the wrong things and give this virus a second wind..

Montana33
Montana33

OMG! I didn’t realize you can still fly between US and heavily infected Latin American cities. We are acting like we want to fail.

Anda
Anda

"Population adjusted Brazil is new epicentre"

I think that is wrong. Brazil is "trending" , but for total cases per million (and leaving aside reporting errors from whichever country) it is 51st on the list at

Click the tab "total cases per million" on the data table for countries, click again if it lists lowest first.

???

aqualech
aqualech

"APIB has recorded more than 980 officially confirmed cases of coronavirus and at least 125 deaths, which suggests a mortality rate of 12.6 percent -- compared to the national rate of 6.4 percent."

It is still 1/10,000 in that group.

Jclaer
Jclaer

You say population adjusted Brazil is..., but looking at the deaths/million, Brazil looks better than all you list (except Russia).

Tengen
Tengen

I'd bet heavily that Brazil is generally not testing in the favelas, and therefore not counting infections/deaths there. Like India and some others, the slums don't exist in this crisis and resources are spent elsewhere.

Realist
Realist

Both Brazil and the US are going to remain ”hotspots” until an effective vaccine arrives (2021 at the earliest). Neither country is doing the testing or tracing necessary to slow the virus. Too many people in both countries are ignoring public safety recommendations such as social distancing, wearing masks, using hand sanitizer etc.

Net result: wave after wave of infections and an economic recession that lasts a lot longer than it has to.

Happy Memorial Day.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Don't forget Indonesia. The numbers are low there because of lack of testing. Social distancing has also been deemed a failure over there.

But then again hospitals aren't overwhelmed, so who knows.

Montana33
Montana33

Trump finally put a quarantine today on Brazil travelers. You can still fly to and from Mexico with no quarantine.

purelogic
purelogic

The only statistic I'm interested in is the year-over-year increase in number of deaths. Everything else is way too subjective.

Jojo
Jojo

It's time to open up the WHOLE economy and get rid of these silly masks.

The media, various MD's, politicians such as yourself and government health officers everywhere have seemingly joined together to try and shame people into continuing to wear silly masks, under the premise that asymptomatic transmission will result in others contacting the CV19 virus.

Yet, a bit of research turned up this rather important statement from the WHO itself, which all of the above conveniently ignore.


"Asymptomatic transmission
An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed case is a person infected with COVID-19 who does not develop symptoms.

There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries."

As you can see, there has NOT been ANY confirmed case of asymptomatic transmission of CV19 in the lab!


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