Beginning of the End of German Support for NATO

Mish

Make way for the Greens and the Leftists. They do not want US nuclear weapons on German soil.

Angela Merkel will soon be gone. The next German coalition already shares new ideas in many areas including NATO.

Three Consequences

  1. Germany will cease its nuclear sharing agreement with the US.
  2. It will ask the US to remove its nuclear weapons from German soil.
  3. Germany will abandon plans to purchase US military equipment such as the F/A-18 Hornet.

Justyna Gotkowska from the OSW think tank in Warsaw, laments in a Twitter Thread that Germany may soon abandon a key pillar of its NATO defence policy.

Eurointelligence picked up on the thread in its report Will Germany cease to host US nuclear weapons on its soil?

Gotkowska argues that it is highly probable that Germany will end its participation in the nuclear sharing programme within ten years. While the government itself, including the SPD leadership, is committed to it, the programme is not supported by the rank-and-file of the SPD. We would add that it is not supported by the Greens either. 

Rolf Mützenich, the SPD leader in the Bundestag, has now formally come out supporting withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Germany, and quitting nuclear sharing. The SPD has also nominated an anti-nuclear MEP for the job of Bundeswehr ombudsman.

Gotkowska concludes that there is no longer a majority in the Bundestag for the procurement of the F/A-18 Hornet tactical aircraft, which forms a key component for the nuclear sharing strategy. The government has now pushed a decision on the F/A-18 into the next parliament, which is even less likely than the current one to support it. Germany's exit from the programme poses important questions for Nato: whether Germany can still be useful in other ways, and whether others member will, or should, pick up the slack.

Fake News Headline

Defense News reports NATO chief backs Germany’s vow to keep war-ready US nukes

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has waded into Germany’s fiery debate about the decades-old pledge to retain American atomic bombs in the European nation as a way of deterring Russia.

Stoltenberg argued that only sticking to the doctrine of “nuclear sharing” would ensure Berlin's continued seat at the table of strategic decision-making within the alliance. 

Led by Rolf Mützenich, the chairman of the Social Democrats in parliament, a group within the governing coalition’s junior party want to exit the NATO atomic arrangement, arguing that deal, too, has outlived its usefulness
.

Vow? What Vow? 

Both Eurointelligence and Gotkowska lament this result. I view this as a good thing. 

I suggest we remove the nukes and the troops, not just from Germany, but everywhere. 

If Germany or Japan or any other country wants US weapons or troops, they should pay for them, not US taxpayers.

Mish

Comments (36)
No. 1-22
Webej
Webej

Nobody will pay for American military presence. Without a presence in Germany, wait for other bases to follow. The Poles will still be all in, but Belgium, Netherlands, and Italy are unlikely to volunteer to keep nuclear weapons on their soil.

After dissing the F18, the F35 will be next everywhere (taking an objective measure of performance/price). No nukes in Germany and Turkey, will mean NATO largely withdrawing, and after the covid-19 bout, watch for countries to want to insource production of military gear and key industries. Eventually there will be European pressure to get rid of American missile launching sites adjacent to the Russian border, and Germany and the EU will try to come to a different understanding with Russia about trade, co-operation, and a mutual defense architecture. Because it makes sense. Because the people everywhere want it. Because it is win/win.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"If Germany or Japan or any other country wants US weapons or troops, they should pay for them, not US taxpayers."

...

But but US hegemony ...

Hoo cares.

Bring them home. Downsize. (A small) Start to live within our means.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Guess that whole rightwing nationalist thing they had on the rise just became a plain old nationalist thing. Good for them. People need to start minding their own business and looking out for their own interests.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Get it clear, Germany and France want an EU army and nuclear capability. Joint fighter development etc.

Germany was labelled, not so long ago, as an unreliable defence partner.

They don't value NATO. You don't know what you've got until it's gone.

Will increased defence spending and bailing out the EU the German tax payer will wonder what has hit them.

gregggg
gregggg

Eliminate all entangling alliances, Including with the Federal Reserve.

tokidoki
tokidoki

"If Germany or Japan or any other country wants US weapons or troops".

This is rich. The Okinawans have always wanted US Troops gone.

Delusion at the highest level i.e. "our allies wanted us to defend them". ROFL. It's the other way around, the US is imposing its will on other countries.

It's the same shit the Donald is pulling with "the Iraqis should pay us".

El_Ted0
El_Ted0

I miss the daily, 'Covid is a lot worse than those Tea Party folks think' article.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

It will be interesting when the countries around the Med decide that they are not so keen on having the 6th fleet around. Because you know that the 6th fleet has nuclear weapons...

America that spends more than any other nation on arms seems to want them all back home, and the rest of the world agrees.

It speaks volume for Pax Americana. But then the end of history happened as did Bush, Obama and Trump -- all North American centric policy makers -- that have little interst or appetite for dealing with the rest of the world.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

As US withdraws who will fill the vacuum? Everytime a dominant power withdraws there are periods of upsets and wars as others jostle for power and influence.

Some of the territories with US bases make very good $ in the vicinity. It is noticeable local spending that will need to be replaced.

Mdsea
Mdsea

We’re not there to protect Deutschland from Russia. We’re there to protect Mitteleuropa from Deutschland.

Sechel
Sechel

Don't see it.

njbr
njbr

The American Century--1920 to 2020.

Hard power irrelevant

Soft power squandered

.

awc13
awc13

"If Germany or Japan or any other country wants US weapons or troops, they should pay for them, not US taxpayers."

agree. we can't afford to subsidize the world

awc13
awc13

it is time for us to end our occupation of germany

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

You could have made the argument that ze German left has abandoned all reason in all matters politic. Probably through the state emaculation system, the next generation brain has been turned into mush. That's the biggest threat to Europe, and NATO cannot protect against that.
A missed opportunity.

Invigilator
Invigilator

The EU is fragmenting before our eyes. Its original purpose, like NATO, being to deter 'world' war is now irrelevant due to global supply chains, global financing and other more active economic hubs such as SE Asia. As one fragments so will the other ....

LauriL
LauriL

Generally, I like your insight, but this exclamation falls into ranting category, Mish. Of course, there are border-countries, that really seem to need US military presence. I am from one of them. Then, there is a large part of Europe, who can do without Americans and often are even annoyed by their presence and political/cultural demands. I'd say Americans have made it a habit to barter their military aid for the legitimacy to commit things in global scale, that are in the long-term interests of US corporations. These agendas can be tracked back to the claim of natural, political or intellectual resources or pressing others for not putting in a competitive claim, that will increase the price for Americans.
Basically, this kind of bartering power for Americans has been weakening since the collapse of USSR. From one side, Western Europe does not feel themselves much threatened, because Russia has been a diminishing power of local importance, and China is far away. The other side is, Europe has seen many reckless wars started by US, based on false claims, straight-out lies, arrogance and malignant wishes. These wars have resulted in many problems, that have left the consequences to others.
It is one thing, that is also wrong with the modern "business-as-usual" approach: take the profit and leave the costs for environmental/social/health to the society.

Knight
Knight

But we are in the business of war! A lot can happen in 10 years time—certainly more than enough time for the MIC to change hearts and minds. Expect more instability in the future...not less.

LegitJerry
LegitJerry

Uh-oh starting to sound like Donald Trump...

ipso_facto
ipso_facto

Seems like withdrawing the nukes will make it more likely American nukes are used on German territory to slow down or stop Russian advances. When nukes are based in Germany I'm sure the plans Germans agreed to focussed using the nukes to hit Russian forces outside German territory. But US be willing to have a nuclear exchange with Russia in order to protect only France?

Herkie
Herkie

Russia collapsed and the world stopped being a three way detant between Russia the US and China. It became UNIPOLAR. We were the only super power left, but we cold not leverage that because to do so would mean using the very weapons we could not use. They were mutual suicide weapons, once the other side collapsed so basically did we. Russia had by far the most nuclear weapons when the Soviet Union fell. The US had fewer but they were better more targeted which the Soviets had larger because they could not target as well. China has never had more than 250 nuclear weapons, and to my thinking that is wise, just as France and UK have that many about. It says to the world we do not have enough nukes to kill you, but if you ever make war on us we have enough to ruin your day for years to come.

The reality of nuclear weapons is that they can never be used. Recent estimates of the Pakistan India border show that if they got into a nuclear war where about 250 bombs were used not only would both nations be wiped out it would trigger the nuclear winter we all have heard about. Extrapolate that by thousands and tens of thousands of bombs. It would be an extinction event.

So I don't worry about nuclear weapons much, if they ever get used we will all die anyway. And mind you I was in the Strategic Air Command stationed at March AFB from 1976 to 80. We were 15th Air Force Headquarters, we took care of everything west of the US and 8th Air Force took care of everything east. We had a large B52 base with nuclear magazines capable of destroying the world.

Most of that has since been shipped to Hanford in Washington and a huge amount to Hawthorne Army Depot in the absolute middle of nowhere in Nevada. It is not advertizes or even admitted to, but I know a nuke bunker when I see one, and they go on for miles and miles.

Nuclear war is something I just think will never happen, because all people capable of it would just be committing suicide. Could a crazy like Kim Jung Un do it as he lay dying? Of course, but his ability to kill is so limited it is not funny. The reason the US is not really worried about that is our technology is so much better we can stop any bombs from hitting us. Does not mean we are immune from fallout from other nuclear wars we had no part in. But, I can say with confidence that American soil will never be hit by nuclear weapons, unless a Trump type sees political advantage in that happening.

tinkertaylorspry
tinkertaylorspry

it is funny, from a more distant view to see how Americans feel about anything other than themselves.
German military has enough ammunition for approximately one day of full blown conflict and their equipment is only at about 60% readiness, at best.
Like a drug dealer, America has been dictating doctrine and been reliable, throughout administrations, until Trump; until then, shortsighted squandering of resources on fighting ideals, rather than enemies, have drained coffers and desires.
Anti nuclear sentiment has been prevalent since the sixties, nobody in free europe wanted nukes on their soil, but recognized the necessity thereof.
Nobody really wants YOU here, but they have been cowed into believing in the importance of these anachronisms.
89% of the voters would vote against nukes, if it were on a single ticket.

The world has had to recognize the Evil does not just come from communism
Stay away, good riddance
pay for your own demise


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