Alleged Plot by Italy and Hungary to Sink the EU

Mish

Most conspiracy theories are bunk. Here's an interesting one from a reliable source.

Viktor Orban and Matteo Salvini Strive to Forge New European Anti-Migrant Alliance

Deutsche Welle reports Viktor Orban and Matteo Salvini Strive to Forge New European Anti-Migrant Alliance

> Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini made no secret of their mutual admiration ahead of their meeting in Milan on Tuesday.

> United in their anti-immigration policies and relentless bashing of the EU, the two right-wing lawmakers called for the creation of a pan-European anti-migrant alliance that would seek to prevent migration to Europe from besieged regions in Africa and the Middle East.

> Salvini, who heads the far-right League party, the junior partner in Italy's populist coalition, told reporters that Italy and Hungary would strive to forge a future union "that excludes socialists and the left, that brings back to the center the values and identity" that their parties represent.

> Orban, meanwhile, called on the European People's Party, the largest group in the European Parliament to which his Fidesz party belongs, to adopt a hardline stand against illegal immigration. Salvini's League party has since 2014 allied itself in the European Parliament with the likes of Marine Le Pen's National Rally and Freedom Party of Austria.

> What Hungary does on land, Italy does by sea

> Orban described Salvini as his "hero and companion" for turning away migrant rescue ships, claiming that such actions were crucial for Europe's security.

> "Hungary has proven that migrants can be stopped on land," said Orban. "And this is where Salvini's mission starts: "(Italy) must show that migrants can also be stopped at sea."

> Around one thousand demonstrators gathered on the streets of Milan to protest Orban's visit on Tuesday. "We do not want Orban's vison of Europe," Socialist MEP Emanuele Fiano said. "Orban calls himself Salvini's friend, but when it comes to taking in refugees from war-town countries, he slams the door."

> Salvini's senior coalition partners from the populist Five-star Movement (M5S) had also reacted angrily to the meeting. In Monday's La Stampa newspaper, Italy's deputy prime minister, Luigi Di Maio, chided Budapest's refugee policy, saying it ran counter to Italy's own interests. "Orban's Hungary is building barbed wire fences and refusing to redistribute refugees in the EU," Di Maio wrote.

Plot by Orban and Salvini

Normally I throw discussions like what follows straight into the ash can. However, this once caught my attentions because it's from Eurointelligence.

Although I disagree entirely with most of their Eurointelligence views and solutions on what should happen, Eurointelligence is generally excellent regarding what is happening at the moment.

So, please consider "The Plot"

> The meeting between Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orban gives us an important clue about the strategy of the far-right in Europe, of which the two are the most prominent leaders. It is true, of course, that Italy wants Hungary and other EU countries to take up refugees, and that Orban refuses. And yet here they are, in a united front against European liberals and against their favourite bogeyman, Emmanuel Macron. We observed a similar odd alliance between Salvini and Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader, who almost brought the German government to collapse with his demand to send secondary asylum seekers back to Italy.

> These oddities have a simple explanation. Salvini and Orban (and Seehofer) are playing a long strategic game: to deprive the centre-left of its built-in majority in the European Parliament. And Orban’s role in this is to usurp the EPP and move it from its current centrist positions towards the right. From the perspective of Salvini, Orban is the European version of Sylvio Berlusconi, a stooge on the way to power. And Orb'an probably sees Salvini in the same way. They will eventually fall out, but not now.

> The idea of a ultra-right takeover of the EU would have sounded completed absurd not too long ago, but if you do the math for next year’s elections, you can see the broader strategy behind their game plan.

> Federico Fubini noted in an analysis in Corriere della Sera this morning that the grand coalition between the European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) is almost certain to end. In 2009, the two groupings had two thirds of the seats. In 2014, their share went down to 54%, despite the landslide victory of Matteo Renzi’s PD in Italy. Judging by the latest opinion polls, the old grand coalition no longer has a majority in ten countries qhich account for two thirds of the seats. Together, both groups are set to lose some 60-70 seats, out of 412 MEPs. But there will be a shift within the EPP too, as Orban will almost certainly retain his 15 MEPs. So this is a two-pronged attack. The Lega of Legas is strengthening while the EPP is shifting to the right. A new coalition of the right is emerging.

> This also explains why Orb'an and Salvini see Macron as their enemy, rather than Merkel. They are planning for the post-Merkel era.

> Lucia Annunziata, a veteran observer of Italian domestic politics, notes that Salvini’s strategy should not be underestimated. Italy is at a juncture in its European politics from which there may be no return. The most important point she made in her comment is that Salvini’s game is not to persuade the EU, but for Italy to be humiliated by it and then to benefit from the outrage. We would add that this is the game fascists have been playing since time immemorial.

> Centrist commentators keep on making the mistake to underestimate both Orban and Salvini, and to overestimate the power their old allies have over them. The EPP does not control Orb'an just as Berlusconi does not control Salvini. It is worth reading some of Orb'an's speeches to see the sheer radicalism of the man. We noted a speech in which he accuses the European Commission of acting in the interest of the large countries against the small. He does not hide the fact that he regards the European elections as an instrument to change the power within the Commission. We should therefore not take it for granted that the Spitzenkandidat of the grouping with the largest number of seats will automatically become the next Commission president. Whoever is nominated for the job by the European Council requires a majority in the EP. The Salvini/Orban coalition on its own may not have the power to block, say, a German candidate for the Commission, but a coalition of the right, the far left, and the non-aligned might make this possible.

Post-Merkel Plot?

Let's not confuse leaders of countries acting in their own best interests with an actual conspiracy.

Yet, the gist of the article rings true.

It is a mistake to underestimate Orban or Salvini. It is also a mistake to underestimate what a Salvini-Five Star coalition might do.

Grand Coalition Dead

The "grand coalition" is dead.

Interestingly, that has two distinct aspects.

  1. SPD+CDU/CSU in Germany
  2. European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) in the European Parliament

Conspiracy? Plot?

I do not detect a conspiracy here, at least in the traditional sense.

Italy does not want more refugees. Hungary does not want more refugees. Five-Star, which criticized the meeting between Salvini and Orban does not want more refugees.

No one is taking views contrary to their political position. On one is doing anything illegal.

Rather, what's happening is a natural alliance.

Eurointelligence just happens not to like it. That does not make it a "plot" or a conspiracy of any kind.

Yet, the bottom line result may very well be the same.

Mike "Mish" shedlock

Comments (15)
No. 1-9
oudaveguy98
oudaveguy98

Schengen Agreement was all about trading away security for efficiency gains. EU was about trading away sovereignty and security for those same efficiency gains. Now Europe is really having second thoughts about whether it was all worth it. My opinion remains that it was a mistake.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Also, not to defend anyone, but the terms Left and Right are determined by where an observer stands. I just don't trust the EU elite.

Macron himself is a populist riding in on the dissatisfaction of the electorate and the cult of personality and image. He's no better. Orban and Salvini may even be more authentic than Macron/Merkel.

The establishment don't like them because they represent "plebs" and the EU is institutionally scared of the electorate - hence the layers of isolation that have created between themselves and true democracy.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Bannon intends to set up shop too and Verhofstadt wants him banned from Europe but Soros is welcome. Hypocrites, the lot of them.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Teamwork!

ML1
ML1

Di Maio is an IDIOT. The more there is burden sharing of asylum seekers around EU countries through relocation of asylum seekers from Greece and Italy to around EU the more asylum seekers come to Greece and Italy.

Migrants are not going to Greece and Italy because they dream of living in Greece and Italy, they are going to Greece and Italy because they want to go THROUGH Greece and Italy to Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium and other EU countries giving away generous welfare and free apartments once your asylum claim is approved based on a story you tell in your asylum application interview (there is no way to reliably check claims of persecution in 99% of cases so learning a story about persecution is enough to get asylum or subsidiary protection and asylum seekers share stories that have gotten asylum or subsidiary protection in asylum seeker centers among themselves and they even share stories that have worked in Facebook.)

The 2015 rush of million asylum seekers started in huge numbers in June of 2015. In 27th of May 2015 EU countries had agreed after pressure from Merkel and Druncker-Juncker to create a temporary burden sharing system where EU would transport 40,000 asylum seekers from Greece and Italy around EU countries. This meant that EU GUARANTEED that even if one was caught in Greece and Italy and made to submit asylum application they could still get through Greece and Italy to other EU countries with most ending up in countries with generous welfare. So burden sharing was the signal that made the numbers of migrants explode higher.

Later in 2015 Merkel forced through another EU burden sharing of asylum seekers around EU because the numbers coming had exploded and first 40,000 burden sharing was no longer enough so Merkel had EU agree after qualified majority voting (4 eastern EU countries voted against, 1 voted empty) to another burden sharing of 120,000 asylum seekers around EU. These burden sharings only applied to Syrians and Eritreans because they were only groups with average EU acceptance rates of over 75% for their asylum application.

Greece had stopped registering migrants and Greece had also stopped detention in spring of 2015 and Greek PM Tsipras and leftist Syriza party government just LET people go north with Greece pushing and ferrying and bussing over 1 MILLION migrants north from the Greek islands near Turkey coast until the migrants were on the Macedonian border and could go through Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria to Germany and onward through Denmark to Sweden. In the beginning people went through Serbia-Hungary-Austria but Orban closed borders in autumn 2015 so they started going through Serbia-Croatia-Slovenia-Austria until early 2016 when Slovenia and Austria closed their borders and other countries followed and the route from Greece to north was closed and arrivals to Greece from Turkey CRASHED since everyone was already SAFE in Turkey and the only reason to go to Greece was to get through and reach Germany or Sweden. Greece itself registered only 11,000 asylum seekers in 2015...

There should be NO burden sharing of asylum seekers or migrants around EU. Instead it should be made clear that getting to Europe means staying in Italy or Greece with NO WELFARE and NO FREE APARTMENT or going back home so there would be just a few that would come.

Italy has also PUSHED migrants north with Italy first giving sea taxi rides from near Libyan Coast to Italy since 2013 and then NOT registering MOST as asylum seekers but instead pushing them north. In 2014 Italy saved 170,000 people at sea and brought them to Italy but only registered 70,000 as asylum seekers so Italy "lost" 100,000 asylum seekers which went to France or Austria or through France and Austria to other EU countries. Italy's shenanigans forced France to start strict border checks on it's border with Italy since summer of 2015 where French border police stop migrants at the border, they DO NOT accept asylum claims at the border and if migrants sneak into France they are returned by van back to Italy. There is checks on the first train station on the French side where migrants are removed from the train and there are also patrols of French border police in the mountain areas between Italy and France to stop the migrants.

People saved at sea or coming themselves to Greece or Italy need to be sent BACK to Turkey or BACK to Libya or Tunisia and then EU must provide funds for Turkey and Libya/Tunisia to send these migrants either back home for those whose countries are SAFE and those who might have a claim need to be sent to UN refugee camps in Africa where they can live in safety until returning home.

Spain also needs to stop attracting these migrants like it has done since the new leftist prime minister came to power summer of 2018. Spain has return agreement for all migrants with Morocco so they need to use it and tell Morocco to send people back home or to UN refugee camps in Africa.

ML1
ML1

Horst Seehofer is a TOTALLY INCOMPETENT Interior Minister.

Germany has 700,000 FAILED asylum seekers and Seehofer let's these walk around on German streets and deal drugs and commit other crimes if they want and they are still paid social welfare money by German authorities and can live and sleep and get food from their nice OPEN accommodation centers until going out in to German cities in the evenings to get drunk and try to meet German girls which many times leads to harassment and regularly also leads to rapes.

Under EU directives ALL failed asylum seekers can be placed in DETENTION until their DEPORTATION or REPATRIATION back home succeeds.

Seehofer and Merkel have CHOSEN to let 700,000 FAILED asylum seekers walk German Streets drunk and commit crimes if they wish and German Authorities are totally INCOMPETENT in removing FAILED asylum seekers.

Right now Germany is in chaos because a Syrian asylum seeker and Iraqi asylum seeker stabbed a 35-year old German man dead in Chemnitz. The Iraqi asylum seeker is called Yousif A. and he is a FAILED asylum seeker so he should have been sent BACK HOME to Iraq but instead German authorities have let him stay in Germany and wander streets freely and ultimately stab the 35-year old German to death in the middle of the street.

In addition to him being a FAILED asylum seeker Yousif A. also has committed lots of crimes in Germany but still German authorities allowed him to walk the streets freely: Yousif A. has six criminal records, amongst others because of fraud and drug possession, and he was most recently sentenced in July 2018 to a suspended imprisonment of eight months because of dangerous bodily injury.

According to EU directives asylum seekers who commit violent crimes can be put into DETENTION so Yousif A. could have been put into DETENTION because he is a FAILED asylum seeker but he could have also been put into DETENTION because he caused a dangerous bodily injury.

Still Merkel and Seehofer let him walk freely in German streets like they let all other FAILED asylum seekers and criminal asylum seekers and asylum seekers convicted to suspended sentences for rapes, harassment and assaults walk freely in German streets.

IF Germany was a company Merkel and Seehofer would have been both FIRED for gross INCOMPETENCE.

ML1
ML1

That "Euro Intelligence" report seems clueless: "We noted a speech in which he accuses the European Commission of acting in the interest of the large countries against the small."

Merkel has TOLD Juncker what EU Commission must do for years. In 2015 Merkel told EU commission that borders MUST stay open so both Merkel and EU commission told countries they need to keep their borders open and let migrants come and go through them and Merkel and EU commission insulted Orban relentlessly for closing borders.

MntGoat
MntGoat

Sovereign nations should have 100% control on who and how many they want to immigrate to their country. And how they deal with illegals.


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