All Continued Unemployment Claims Top 32 Million Again

Mish

All continued claims dipped slightly but still top 32 million.

Based on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, admittedly lagging, there is little or no improvement in the number of unemployed.

My "All Continued Claims" chart is the sum of state claims, federal claims, and various pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA) claims.

All claims lags state continued claims by two weeks.

State Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims in 2020 July 16 Report

State continued claims dipped slightly to 17.338 million but have remained above 15 million for 13 weeks.

Based on trends in PUA claims, any improvement at the state level is likely a mirage.

Primary PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 July 16 Report

Primary PUA claims rose for the 4th week to a record 14.283 million. 

Initial State Claims

Initial state Claims July 16 Data

Initial claims turn into continued claims in a week. But people drop off continued claims if they find a job or expire all their benefits.

The number of initial claims is down from the pandemic surge but is very elevated historically.

People must first file at the state level but some do not qualify. And some who did qualify exhausted state benefits and now need to apply for PUA.

Not a Pretty Picture

The trends suggest the unemployment picture is not improving much. Instead, people who qualified at the state level now need PUA assistance.

Add it up and there are 20 to 30 million people unemployed.

Things About to Get Worse

With reopenings in reverse, and airlines in severe trouble, things are about to get worse. 

  1. American Airlines is in Deep Financial Stress and will shed 16,000 or more jobs.
  2. United Warns It May Cut 36,000 Employees
  3. A Surge in Small Business Bankruptcies is Underway
  4. That Fewer People Pay Their Rent on Time in July suggests more people are struggling.
  5. Phone Data Shows the Retail Recovery Has Stalled in Covid Hotspots
  6. Patients Stranded in Emergency Rooms as Hospitals Fill Up

Trump Claims to Have Saved 51 Million Jobs

If you are looking for pure nonsense, here you go: Trump Claims to Have Saved 51 Million Jobs

Mish

Comments (32)
No. 1-14
ajc1970
ajc1970
  1. PPP funds are running out, small businesses are laying off their employees again
  2. states like Oregon have 6-figure backlogs on manually inputting/overriding the non-standard PUA claims into their system. In Oregon, they target getting them all in (and disbursing funds retroactively) by mid-August, but at current pace, it'll be October.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

These claimants are a little late in the game for the extra $600 week.

tokidoki
tokidoki

According to reports, people receiving the 600 a month were spending more than when they were employed.

Just throw those people to the wall.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

PPP loans were based on a maximum of 2.5 months of payroll.
Applications were accepted starting in early April.
Many businesses that received the funds have already used them up.
Rough seas ahead, mates.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Just goes to show that shutting down for fear of a virus is a very effective way to cause mass unemployment. And contrary to what Mish stated in an earlier post, Sweden demonstrated the correct way to respond and achieved herd immunity some time ago, whereas we have yet to get there everywhere though will soon do so. The damage from the shut-downs, though, especially since many of the largest Democrat controlled areas are deliberately prolonging it in order to help win them an election, will last for years.

America - and most Western countries - have proved beyond any reasonable doubt that they are in a decadent phase and will soon self destruct. The only question is if they will fall prey to globalist totalitarians, home-grown anarchists and criminal gangs, or libertarian traditionalists. Remaining as we are - a dysfunctional hodge podge of mutually despising cultural blocs, is no longer a viable option.

Trump showed that America could have become Great Again. 2020 shows that it is determined not to but also not yet ready for a mature process to address long-standing issues and move forward through them. Unless this election can be fashioned into an ipso facto referendum on how to go forward. Highly unlikely given the ubiquitous overreach of a deceptive, hyper-ventilating super childish Press.

numike
numike

when am I gettin the money?? Second stimulus check: 156 economists push for recurring direct payments

glr
glr

Thank you Mish for providing complete numbers. Most of the media don't understand what the real story is so they mislead the public. (Unfortunately I guess that is not news) I live in Texas. It took me 12 weeks to start to receive pandemic benefits and I have not received any benefits from the first 10 weeks yet. The unemployment office phone line is always busy. The online functions do not function the way their website describes. All of this is a huge mess that will take a long time to straighten out.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

The hurt is real in Trump’s/GOP’s dystopian America. Making coronavirus great again should be the tagline for campaign. Vote the idiots out!

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant

There is a drip, drip of reports that Covid-19 antibodies don't last but a few months in the majority of people infected. If true, then no herd immunity. If true, that would be a big story.

GeorgeWP
GeorgeWP

Certainly seems likely that antibody response is short term. Logical that it wouldn't be any better than our response to the coronavirus that cause common cold like symptoms. Possible good news was the vaccine test that indicated it also produced a t-cell response. So maybe that is also a natural response to COVID-19 and will last longer.

Other studies are reporting high rates of residual impacts post infection. So can't just go 'ok another flu strain'. Looking like ongoing adaption will be required. Which sucks but, will reduce the spread of other diseases as well. So gains in productivity to offset to the cost of that. And at some point more virus will arise and we will be better able to deal with them

Montana33
Montana33

Hey - those 30 million should just “find something new” ...the new catchphrase that Ivanka is selling along with Goya beans. They don’t need unemployment checks, Right, it’s their fault? Silly unemployed people should have seen this coming and learned to code years ago. Oh wait - are programmers losing jobs too?

pedrosantoros
pedrosantoros

I'd love you to do just a little fact checking before posting drivel...

moverman69
moverman69

Our drywall repairs are still working. Thank goodness we're considered essential! https://www.eriedrywall.com/

lol
lol

Fed pump trillions $$ (maybe quadrillions) into Wall Street and the banks,give billions in free money, no questions asked to Bezos and old man Buffett while major cities turn into homeless 3rd world crime riddled squalor!That's the Republicon legacy!


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