Advance Indicators: Trade Deficit Widens, Wholesale Inventories +0.3%, Retail Inventories -1.0%


The advance (first) estimate of third-quarter GDP comes out tomorrow. The final economic report before the BEA's GDP announcement is the Census Bureau's advance indicator report for September. The report will likely lower GDP estimates.

Econoday Comment

"Wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent in September but retail inventories, also released with today's report, fell a sharp 1.0 percent reflecting a 2.6 percent draw in vehicles, sales of which were unusually strong in the month. The large retail draw could trim back estimates for tomorrow's GDP report."

Mish Comment

The change in trade deficit will not impact the GDP report, much if at all, simply because it's too small to matter.

Inventories are a huge wildcard in tomorrow's GDP report. I have a comment on change in private inventories (CIPI) from Pat Higgins, author of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Report, coming up shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Global Economics