ADP Shocker Estimate: Economy to Add Only 27,000 Jobs in May
The ADP National Employment Report for May is worth a look, because the numbers are a bit shocking, at least compared to consensus estimates.
Compared to BLS, sometimes ADP is much higher and sometimes much lower. Misses, assuming the BLS is accurate (not necessarily a good assumption), appear to be random.
ADP vs BLS
ADP and the BLS both heavily revise numbers over time, so the numbers eventually converge.
Trend Change or Outlier?
- The average for the year is 188.
- The 3-month average is 152.
- The 2-month average is 149.
If this is an outlier, then any of the averages are a better indicator than judging from the one-month total.
- The Econoday consensus estimate for ADP was 175,000 jobs.
- The Econoday consensus estimate for the BLS is 180,000 jobs.
Jobs vs Employment
Last month, the BLS said Jobs Rose by +263,000 but Employment Declined by 103,000.
In the past year, the difference between jobs and employment is a whopping 1,191,000. That's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs.
In that regard, 27,000 no longer seems shocking.
I suspect the BLS and ADP are double-counting part-time jobs. Neither weeds out duplicate social security numbers.
We hear from the BLS on Friday.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock