ADP and Markit Job Reports Are a Huge Warning Signal on the Recovery

Mish

ADP has been wildly wrong in its jobs forecast. Now Economists are wildly wrong about what ADP will estimate.

Wildly Wrong Economic Forecast

The BLS jobs report is this Friday. ADP estimates the economy added 167,000 in July. 

The Econoday consensus estimate of the ADP forecast was 1,888,000 a miss of over 1.7 Million.

ADP was way off in May, calling for a big payroll loss not the big payroll jump that surprised everybody. And though June's call for a big gain was short of the mark, it was at least in the right direction. For July, forecasters see ADP's estimate at 1.888 million.

Paychex / Markit Small Business Index

IHS Markit reports Small Business Employment Rebound Moderates in July

The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows that employment growth moderated as new COVID-19 hot spots emerged in the South and West regions of the U.S. The national jobs index slipped 0.24 percent in July to 94.59. Hourly earnings growth also slowed slightly to 3.29 percent last month, but increasing hours worked, spurred by the shifting workforce composition, drove weekly earnings growth up to 4.14 percent, with one-month and three-month annualized growth rates topping five percent.

“The jobs index fell slightly in July as a number of states were forced to backtrack on early reopenings,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS Markit.

The rebound in small business job growth has slowed mostly in regions where there has been a recent surge in cases,” said Martin Mucci, Paychex president and CEO. “We’re closely monitoring the status of the next expected stimulus bill for additional relief measures that may be necessary for many small businesses in the months ahead."

ISM Services

We find out the BLS number on Friday. The Econoday consensus is 2,000,000. 

I will take the "Under".

Mish

Comments (14)
No. 1-5
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

I'll go with whatever number Portnoy pulls out of his scrabble bag ...

July saw number still impacted by stimulus / moratorium / forbearance.

Going forward as all that waning ?????

Lance Manly
Lance Manly

The radical shaped recovery does not work for me, since in a radical the left hand side of the "V" is above right the hand side. I would call it a "mirror radical"

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

This morning I posted an article in the "Community" about people close to retirement age opting to simply quit and retire early and permanently. People in their 50's and 60's are more vulnerable to the ill effects of CV19 up to and including death so it makes sense. No job is worth dying for especially if you have a pension or retirement package waiting for you on the other side. Ride it out a few years and start collecting social security or get a doctor to declare you "disabled" and get on the social security rolls early.

Either way, it doesn't bode well for the economy long term. Let's not forget baby boomers keep leaving the work force every year and start collecting social security. I would assume they start withdrawing money from their 401k's too from the market. Long term, not good for stock market no matter how much the fed prints.

Smart boomers will pull money out of the stock market now, not so smart ones will be left with diminishing returns.

tokidoki
tokidoki

The President said "huge job number" this coming Friday.

You going to believe these people over the Prez?

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

This may be of interest. Texas sales tax revenue INCREASED in July. The article cites, increased online shopping, I would assume from places like Amazon. Maybe there will be a HUGE employment number. I think Amazon has a HUGE warehouse in Dallas somewhere.

"Hegar also said that revenue collections from other major taxes for the state were still significantly down. The oil production tax, for example, was down 40% from the same month last year, he said, while the hotel occupancy tax was down 42% from July 2019. The natural gas production tax, meanwhile, was down 71% from July 2019."


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