Abra Cadabra: Yellen “No Financial Crisis in Our Lifetime” vs Fed’s Kashkari “67% Chance of Another
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that she does not believe that there will be another financial crisis for at least as long as she lives, thanks largely to reforms of the banking system since the 2007-09 crash.
“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said at a question-and-answer event in London.
“You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” she said.
Yellen said it would “not be a good thing” if reforms of the financial services industry since the crisis were unwound, and urged those who had helped manage the fallout at the time to be vocal in preventing such a dilution.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said during his election campaign that he would cut banking regulation. The U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month proposed easing up on restrictions big banks now face in their trading operations.
Yellen declined to comment when asked about her relationship with Trump but said she had a good working relationship with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.
Reuters interpreted “our lifetimes” as her lifetime. It’s not clear what she meant, but “her” seems a stretch.
Bubbles An Illusion?
Asked about share price valuations by a member of the audience, Yellen said “by standard metrics, some asset valuations look high but there’s no certainty about that.”
Apparently, Yellen has lost her eyesight.
Fed’s Kashkari Says U.S. Faces Another Financial Meltdown
With a tip of the hat to “StockCats” for the link, inquiring minds may wish to consider this alternate view from November 17, 2016: Fed’s Kashkari Says U.S. Faces Another Financial Meltdown.
Banks are still too-big-to-fail according to Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari. He told the FOX Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo there’s a high probability of another financial crisis and bailout.
“I’ve heard from senators and congressmen and women on both sides of the aisle who are concerned that the biggest banks are too-big-to-fail. We analyzed the history of financial crises: we’ve now got a 67% chance today of another financial crisis in the next century and another bailout,” he said.
The Next Century?
Only 67%? That’s the best you can do? Can you narrow you down a bit? Will Yellen still be alive or not?
I have it figured out. If we all say the magic words, nothing bad can possibly happen.
More seriously, Yellen’s words are a huge contrarian indicator quite reminiscent of Bernanke’s “Subprime housing crisis is contained” statement.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock