4th Time a Charm for the Long Bond?
Treasury Curve Details
- There is now a solid wall of inversions. Every Treasury Note and bill from three-year down is inverted with the next lower duration except for the Fed Funds Rate.
- The 10-year yield is inverted with 6-month and shorter durations.
- The 30-year long bond dipped below 2.0% for the fourth time and is just 6 basis points from a record low.
The same thing happened on January 31.
At that time I discussed My Conversation With the 30-Year Long Bond.
My Conversation With Mr. Bond
Hello Mr. Bond. You just cannot seem to stay away from 2.0%.
We missed you. Welcome back. Will this be a longer visit? Are you calling for a recession?
Unfortunately, Mr. Bond did not answer. He just winked.
Today, I asked Mr. Bond the same questions.
Once again, he did not answer directly.
Instead, he just shrugged his shoulders and responded with three questions of his own:
- Did you notice Half the Population of China, 760 Million, Now Locked Down?
- Is Japan Headed for Recession, or In Recession?
- Do you really believe the US can avoid a recession?
With that, Mr. Bond said: I have to run, but here's another question for you to think about: If not now, when?
On his way out the door I thought I heard him singing Do It To Me One More Time by Captain and Tennille, but it might have been Tonight's the Night.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock