Seems the market is expecting QE to be a permanent part of our monetary policy. Not just in the US. All the major central banks.

I don’t worry much about these things because I always have a balanced and well diversified portfolio. I get the impression that many people here try to “time the market” or “bet big on one or two things like gold and cash”. Then I see these people hoping or wishing for a market crash or recession in order to justify their investment position.

The majority of my investments are in “productive” assets. In other words, assets that produce goods, services, and jobs.

Though I have a small position in gold, I consider it mostly a waste of resources. Same goes for “collectibles” like art, baseball cards, beanie babies, etc.

Kid horn: I do expect QE forever, low and lower interest rates, skyrocketing deficits etc because that is what “the powers that be” will keep doing. Not because they should. But simply because they will. That’s reality.

Long Bond = Old Man River

Going to go where it wants (yield < 1%) in due time.

The way this old bond trader who started trading bonds on Wall St in 1981 and still trades for himself sees it new all time low yields. You have supply chains shredding with nonlinear second and third order
effects. You have Japan in recession,Germany and who knows China.
Latin America a disaster. Corona virus spreading ,believe the scientists, Weak retail sales, over leveraged corporations
collapsing shipping and intermodal volumes manufacturing in recession. What’s not to like?

The old bond trader forgot one other very important point. Credit demand has been to keep zombie Corp alive. No real capex demand.
Fed can push on a string all it wants but it won’t help demand much.

I'm beginning to think I may understand why Guy Clark didn't like his landlord:

Could be, he was Mr. Bond.

This blog never fails to accouter to Apocalyptic forecasts. Reminds of when that Hedgeye Blog flogged the stock, KMI, and said to get out before the company went bankrupt. Didn't happen.