35% Face Major Loss in Michigan Poll

Mish

A new Michigan poll shows 35% of residents fear a major loss due to Covid-19. Another 12% foresee a catastrophic loss.

Please consider the Detroit Regional Chamber Statewide COVID-19 Impact Poll taken April 15-16.

Highlights 

  • 29% of respondents are furloughed, laid off, or unable to work.
  • 27.3% of respondents that were working prior to the outbreak have been forced to file for unemployment. 
  • 42.6% of respondents that were working prior to the outbreak, are now furloughed, laid off, or unable to work. 
  • 69% of furloughed or laid-off workers face catastrophic to major financial impact. 
  • 28% of respondents are worried about putting food on the table. 
  • The majority of respondents, 50%, believe Michigan is already in a recession.

Economic Impact at Individual Level

  • 12% said the impact was catastrophic.
  • 35% said the impact was major.
  • 36% said the impact was minor.
  • 15% said there was no impact at all.

Millennials had the hardest impact. 21% of respondents under the age of 30 said that the impact was catastrophic. 

Food on the Table

  • 54% of furloughed or laid off respondents are worried about putting food on their table.
  • 54% of African American respondents are worried about putting food on their table.
  • 45% of those aged 18 to 29 are worried about putting food on their table.
  • 40% of those aged 30 to 39 are worried about putting food on their table.

Unemployment

Respondents that felt forced to file for unemployment were asked whether or not they have been successful. 

  1. 48% of furloughed or laid off have been successful in filing for unemployment.
  2. 37% of furloughed or laid off have NOT been successful in filing for unemployment.
  3. 15% of these respondents are not sure if they have been successful in filing for unemployment. 
  4. 52% of unemployed workers under the age of 30 have not been able to successfully file for unemployment.

Calculating the Unemployment Rate

Point two highlights a huge pool of unemployed who have not yet filed and thus do not show up in existing claims. That is important for estimating the unemployment rate.

Recall that the unemployment rate is not determined by actual claims, but rather by the result of the household phone survey by the BLS.

Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment

On April 14, I commented Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.

At that time I came up with an unemployment rate of 28.9% assuming there would be another 250,000 claims.

Point two suggests something on the order of 400,000 unemployment claims to come, not 250,000.

New Calculation

1 million newly recorded claims + 400,000 claims to come + 180,000 existing unemployed / 4.95 million workforce = 31.9% unemployment rate.

The new calculation assumes that the poll is correct and that unemployment claims will match how people respond to the Household Survey.

That may not be the case. Regardless, Michigan rates to be a total disaster.

Mish

Comments (88)
No. 1-21
wootendw
wootendw

And we're probably just getting started.

BobSmith
BobSmith

My parents grew up in Eastern Europe and it was understood no matter how modest your wealth was, you would always keep enough savings for 6 months worth of bills at hand. Just perplexed by how many Americans face financial ruin without a job.

Zardoz
Zardoz

"48% of furloughed or laid off have been successful in filing for unemployment."

Our society has failed in a lot of ways, but this might be the one that takes it down. We're a few weeks from people starting to starve.

shamrock
shamrock

Unemployment payments now are $40k/year, minimum. That's a livable wage.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Don’t worry! Fed can print infinite amount of money from thin air!

Blurtman
Blurtman

A hungry mob is an angry mob.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

For those who are not aware that tRump have filed bankruptcy 7 times, wake up because he is filing bankruptcy the 8th time, only this time it is the bankruptcy of the good old USA.

AussiePete
AussiePete

Mish, your headline doesn't match up with the stats in your story - 12% say catastrophic, 35% say major

Realist
Realist

Not to worry. Kudlow says that they are going to suspend some tariffs for US retailers, in order to reduce the hardship of retailers paying these tariffs. Doesn't Kudlow realize that China pays the tariffs, not the US retailers?

numike
numike

6 to 7 weeks or whatever with businesses shut down and the whole house of cards is on the brink of falling down? What if it was a real war?

Jojo
Jojo

Re: the food lines:

Brother can you spare a dime?

Tom Waits

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

This begs the question out here in California how so many have antibodies and why the outbreak hasnt been as big as the one in other large population areas.

Palmer808$
Palmer808$

Biden/Obama 2020
Day after inauguration Biden steps down..
8 more years of Obama-nation
McCain/Palin showed the world that the fix was in

Palmer808$
Palmer808$

Michelle Obama...
Dultards

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

How representative is the potential unemployment claim backlog in other states?

Blurtman
Blurtman

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy.

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

The paper was very much too pessimistic

Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

The results will eventually be similar for all countries

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

I remember coming out of the last recession decent houses in Detroit (and a few other places) could be had for dirt cheap ($10K ish) to satisfy tax liens ... revisit on tap.

George Phillies
George Phillies

Low interest? Isn't that why we have Spyder and ETFs?


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