Thing to Watch: COVID-19 Death Rate Trend

DavidZelenka

At this point in the life of this virus, we should be watching the death rate trend. I don't see folks covering this, so I thought you might help in that regard. Looking at death rate trends will show us whether or not the virus is attenuating. And it seems to be. Globally, testing has now stabilized, so that's not the reason for the global drop.

A MishTalk user spoke about Houston. Here's the trend for Texas

Comments (5)
No. 1-3
njbr
njbr

Straight lines off the ends of a very irregular line is pretty funny.

And is a 1.5 to 2% CFR insignificant?

DavidZelenka
DavidZelenka

Clearly straight lines are not in nature, but we don't know how it's curve will work out: probably an asymptote toward zero. But it could go back up. However, novel viruses usually reduce in virulence. This is the graph to watch.

But the important issue is to watch is attenuation at this point. Once we get past the peak for the creature, we look for how and when it will go toward extinction.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Linear extrapolation? If you did that in april, what projection would you have gotten? I mean this methodology is useless.

1 Reply

Isaiah217
Isaiah217

I wonder if you would have said the same thing then...