The Federal Reserve meets again, and this time the spotlight will be even brighter when members convene for their two-day meeting on Tuesday. A rate hike in June isn't likely anymore, but investors instead will be on high alert for any clues as to when another increase could come.
The Fed meeting will conclude on Wednesday afternoon with a statement and fresh forecasts followed by a press conference helmed by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
The chances of a rate hike in June dropped to 2% probability, according to the CME Group, after the number of U.S. jobs added to payrolls in May came in well below expectations. Chances of a rate hike in June were higher than 20% at the end of May.
"TD is aligned with the market consensus in expecting the Fed to leave its fed funds rate unchanged," said David Tulk, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. "The proceedings will be viewed as hawkish since data dependence delays but does not eliminate the likelihood of a hike in the coming months."
According to CME Group Fed funds futures, a July rate hike currently has a 23% probability, September a 37% probability, November a 38% probability, and December a 59% probability.
The number of economic reports out next week also picks up the pace with a flood of insight on how the U.S. economy performed in May. Retail sales for May, out Tuesday, are expected to show a 0.3% increase, a significant slowdown after 1.3% growth in April.
Consumer prices data for May will be released on Thursday and are expected to show a 0.3% rise. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices will likely increase 0.2%.
Producer prices, out on Wednesday, are expected to grow 0.3%. Stripping out food and energy, producer prices are forecast to inch 0.1% higher. Also on Wednesday, industrial production for May is expected to show the continued pressure of weaker international demand, a strong U.S. dollar and general weakness in the manufacturing sector. The measure is expected to contract 0.2%.
Also on the economic calendar, import and export prices for May and business inventories for April will be released on Tuesday; the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June is scheduled for Wednesday; the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for June will be out on Thursday; and building permits and housing starts for May are set for Friday.
It's fairly quiet for earnings in the coming week, though be on the lookout for some key quarterly reports to be issued later in the week. BobEvans Farms (BOBE) will report on Tuesday afternoon; Ctrip.com (CTRP) - Get Ctrip.com International Ltd Sponsored ADR Report and Jabil Circuit (JBL) - Get Jabil Inc. Report on Wednesday; and Kroger (KR) - Get Kroger Co. (KR) Report , Rite Aid (RAD) - Get Rite Aid Corporation Report , Oracle (ORCL) - Get Oracle Corporation Report and Smith & Wesson (SWHC) on Thursday.
Trading could become more volatile on Friday during the quadruple-witching session, one of four days of the year in which futures and options contracts expire at once.