Treasuries are sharply off as money poured into the stock market, which has been shrugging off bad earnings jitters and worries about the economy.
Lately, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note tumbled 1 3/32 to 99 14/32, moving the yield up 5.070%. The 30-year bond lost 1 22/32 to 96 11/32, raising the yield to 5.628%.
Indeed, earnings season for the first quarter has barely begun, yet investors today are acting as if the worst is over. Yesterday,
treated the market to some fairly optimistic earnings news, which gave stocks some buying momentum. And the perception that the economy may be in better shape than thought also has been fueling the bulls in the stock market.
William Poole, St. Louis Fed bank president, said this morning that the U.S. stands a "25% chance of falling into a recession." Poole also gave 50% odds for a "gradual increase in economic growth as 2001 progresses," according to
, though he maintained that a "recession scenario is not necessarily off the table."
With no economic data out today, the bond market will continue to watch movement in the stock market and listen to the latest comments by
Fed officials. Thursday's
retail sales report and
Producer Price Index numbers should also give the market more insight into the health of the economy and the mind of the Fed.