After the recent excitement in the bond market, things were a little calmer Friday. Dull, even.
"It's been boring," says Dana Johnson, head of capital markets research at
First Chicago Capital Markets
. "There were no economic releases, the Fed policy makers didn't say anything new. It was a quiet and almost featureless day."
What about the market's tone?
"There was no tone," says Johnson. "You're really reaching to make any fundamental comments about today's trading."
"It's like studying the plains of Nebraska," adds Fred Sturm, senior economist at
in Chicago. "There's not that much going on. There isn't going to be any government information flow to make the landscape more interesting until Thursday." That's when August
Nevertheless, the long bond was able to creep up another 9/32 to 99 29/32, taking the yield down to 6.38%.
"The market's bullish but a little hesitant," says Marilyn Schaja, money market economist at
Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette
. "There's a little nervousness going into next month."
That's when economists will begin to get a read on growth in the third quarter. Most people think that the Fed will base any decision on whether or not it should tighten before the end of the year on third-quarter data. "I think that they're going to be able to get away without tightening," says Schaja, who thinks that there's still head room for the 30-year bond. "The long end of the market could be a bit better," she says. "The short end should be a bit anchored because the Fed will not ease policy."
(all times EDT):
Federal Reserve official speech (7:30 p.m.)
: Alice Rivlin, the moderate and politically astute
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman
, speaks to the
Institute of International Bankers
in Hong Kong.
CNW Auto Sales Trak
for Sept. 11-20 (10 a.m.)
Federal Reserve official speech
(Noon): Jerry Jordan, the moderate president of the
Cleveland Federal Reserve
speaks to the
Cleveland Business Economists Club
on monetary policy.
(1 p.m.): The world's biggest borrower looks for $15 billion in three- and six-month bills to replace the $15.5 billion maturing.
for August (2 p.m.): Consensus estimate is for a decline of $37.4 billion, according to