A big rebound in oil prices and the specter of a flood of new corporate bonds put pressure on Treasuries today. But, with no economic data on the calendar, volume was light, magnifying the size of the downdraft, market analysts said.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 9/32 to 99 25/32, lifting its yield 4 basis points to 5.777%. Shorter-maturity yields rose by varying amounts.
The 30-year Treasury bond lost 13/32 to 107 12/32, boosting its yield 2.7 basis points to 5.729%. At the
Chicago Board of Trade
, the December
Treasury futures contract shed 13/32 to 99 25/32.
Oil was the prime mover of bonds today. In the wake of
decision over the weekend to boost output by just 3%, the benchmark futures contract, which had tumbled nearly 5% on Friday, regained 4.5% to close just below the 10-year high of $35.59 a barrel it hit on Thursday.
While high energy prices have the potential to slow economic growth, a scenario in which bonds usually find favor with investors, they can also stoke inflation, which is negative for bonds. The second dynamic continues to have the stronger hold on bond investors, who have been selling on upticks in oil and buying on downticks.
Treasury investors are also nervous about the heavy slate of corporate bonds expected to be issued this week. Issuance of corporate bonds can prompt selling of Treasuries. According to
, at least $11 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds are slated, compared to a year-to-date average of $7.5 billion. The largest of the issues is $5 billion ($4 billion of dollar-denominated and the equivalent of $1 billion euro-denominated) by
"There's a lot of corporate supply in the pipeline,"
debt strategist Michael Maurer said. "People are just looking for some other product than
government bonds to provide some yield."
However, Maurer also noted willingness to buy Treasuries on dips in their price, a development he called "very encouraging." And he pointed out that low volume exaggerated the price movement, which otherwise might have been quite small. According to tracker
, just $20 billion changed hands, 5.7% less than average for a Monday over the last month.
While no major economic data are slated till Thursday, which brings the
retail sales report and the
Producer Price Index, both for August, bond market participants tomorrow will turn their attention to Rep. Richard Baker's (R., La.) 1:30 p.m. EDT hearing on government sponsored enterprises -- entities like
, which issue bonds that compete with Treasury securities. Baker has proposed legislation, not expected to pass this year, which would make GSE bonds less appealing to investors.
To some extent,
Treasury market analyst Roseanne Briggen said, the prospect of the Baker hearing has "paralyzed all the bond markets."
"If it's negative
for the GSEs, you'll see a big shift out of
GSE, or agency, securities and into Treasuries," she added.
Currency and Commodities
The dollar fell against the yen and rose against the euro. It lately was worth 106.02 yen, down from 106.13. The euro was worth $0.8568, down from $0.8660. For more on currencies, see
Crude oil for October delivery at the
New York Mercantile Exchange
rose to $35.14 a barrel from $33.63.
Bridge Commodity Research Bureau Index
rose to a two-year high of 230.93 from 229.78.
Gold for December delivery at the
rose to $277.00 an ounce from $276.80.