The U.S. economy grew at 3.1% annual rate in the second quarter, the best performance since early 2015, and labor markets appear to be nearing full-employment, but analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that wages seem to be an outlier.
"One complication in interpreting the wage numbers is that composition effects can distort the signal they provide about labor market tightness," Goldman explained. "Changes in the characteristics of the employed workforce are contributing about ¼pp less than average to wage growth."
But, Goldman acknowledged that isn't "abnormal" especially in a period where unemployment is falling.
"While composition effects alone cannot explain the wage puzzle, slower growth of average labor quality is just one part of a broader slowdown in productivity growth," the firm said.
And, while wage growth may appear "unimpressive," Goldman noted that it is "less of an outlier" among the broader range of labor market data that points to a return to full-employment.
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