The Treasury market is only marginally weaker this morning, but it's enough to push the yield on the 30-year bond to its highest level since June 26.
Again, weakness in major foreign bond markets has pushed the Treasury market underwater, as investors continue to shift assets away from the U.S.
"The action in the foreign markets is so terrible," said Michael Krauss, chief technical strategist at
German Bunds and
British Gilts closed lower, and JGBs
Japanese government bonds have been trading sideways for a month or so now."
Of late, the 30-year Treasury bond was down 7/32 to trade at 88 1/32. The yield rose 2 basis points to 6.14%. The 10-year Gilt closed at a yield of 5.31% today, up from 5.26% yesterday, while the 10-year Bund's yield rose 3 basis points to 4.90%.
Two factors are working against Treasuries through the foreign bond markets. For one, other world economies are recovering, making the U.S. dollar and risk-free Treasury bonds, the quintessential safe-haven investments, look overvalued. The dollar is at 115, up against the yen today but down from 120.97 a month ago. Meanwhile, the euro is trading at 1.0654 dollars, compared with 1.0245 a month ago.
"We're slowing down, or at least we're slowing down a little, and they're coming off the bottom," Krauss said.
Secondly, as European economies improve, investors there are selling benchmark bonds to diversify into riskier assets. The Bund has tacked on 34 basis points in yield in the last month, while the Gilt is yielding 25 more basis points than its 5.06% rate a month ago. Global bond yields tend to swing together -- as investors sell lower-yielding instruments in order to invest in higher-yielding ones.
Economic data are scarce today, with the
index of leading economic indicators the day's only monthly release. Leading indicators rose 0.3% during June, just as it did in May. The next important piece of economic news is probably Thursday's
productivity and unit labor costs
release, followed by Friday's
Tomorrow the Treasury will announce details of its quarterly refunding, which includes sales of five-, 10- and 30-year securities. Analysts expect some selling in anticipation of this auction.
reported volume down 36% when compared with the average Tuesday in the past month, as just $10.7 billion in securities had changed hands by 10 a.m. EDT.