This column was originally published on RealMoney on June 4 at 8:05 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
One of the oddities of this market has got to be how so few have embraced the bull market with wild abandon. And now I see even many of the bulls who are interviewed on TV are cautious in here, and
has read pretty bearish for a few weeks now as well.
But it's the references to 1987 that keep cropping up that I don't quite understand.
You see, in 1987, the advance/decline line topped out in the spring and the Dow Jones Utilities topped out in the spring as well. So from my current perspective, those two factors don't jibe with the 1987 scenario. Right now, the a/d line keeps on ticking and the Utilities have only recently faltered.
However, on the sentiment side, I must share with you this cartoon that sits taped to my screen. It is from the summer of 1987, and I believe a client sent it to me.
It shows a cave with three bears inside. They are opening the door to a salesman who carries a briefcase that says "Stocks." The Papa Bear says, "Bears? There are no bears here, just us corrections."
I think the perfect cartoon for now would be to have a group of bulls being called upon by a salesman, and they would say, "Bulls? No bulls here, just us dip buyers."
my column on Friday where I calculated the measured target of the
to be in the 1540-1570 area, I received quite a number of emails. One bull told me to use a percentage (not point) calculation and that meant the S&P was going to 1750. So I looked in
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
by Edwards and Magee, the book I consider the bible of technical analysis, and I can find no reference to this sort of calculating of measured targets.
One bear wrote and wanted to know if I'd ever noticed that old highs act like magnets and if we tended to peak close to them. Old highs and old lows tend to be "points of interest" on a chart, and quite often they tend to be points where profits might be taken at highs and buyers might come in at lows.
If you look at this chart of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
dating back to 1985 you will notice that I've marked off, using a trend line, the old high from 2000 on the DJIA. The first time we got up there was spring of 2006. What now appears to be a minor correction on the chart was that big swoon down last May and June.
So you can see that the DJIA did get turned back from its old high the first time it visited there.
Now, just because I want to give the bulls something to chew on, let's do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculated measurement on that DJIA chart. If we take the approximate high of the pattern, 11,700, and subtract the low, 7300, we get 4400. If we add 4400 to the breakout at 11,700 we get a long term target on the DJIA around 16,000, or 16,100 to be precise.
There is no timing to measured targets, but if we're going to use the S&P as a quasi-example, it took it 2½ years from the time it broke out until it reached its target price.
For this coming week, we are now overbought, yet the 30-day moving average of the a/d line is not yet overbought. Therefore, I'd look for a choppy market that struggles to get through that target zone on the S&P.
At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information,
. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback;
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