NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Tuesday started out well enough, with the Dow Jones average and other major indexes rallying over 2% following the worst trading day in several years.
Yet the rally seemed unlikely to last because of jittery investors and concerns about China.
Yet the fundamental view on U.S. equities and the global economy has not changed. The U.S. economy continues to grow at a reasonable pace, the employment picture is solid, and the U.S. housing market is on firm footing.
Globally, interest rates will remain low, growth will likely continue to be benign for the next decade and while there will be chatter of inflation, odds are overwhelming that the world won't see commodity or wage inflation that exceeds 3% for some time.
So, what does this mean for investors?
It could mean a lot for investors who let emotions get the best of them, and little for patient, long-term ones. The longer-term future investment landscape will likely look like this:
- Market volatility will return, meaning 10% corrections will occur once or twice a year
- U.S. and European (developed world) equity returns will likely average 6% or so from capital appreciation, plus dividends
- Performance divergence by countries and sectors will widen
- Interest rates will remain low, by historical standards, for the next decade
- While the broad-based rally in bonds is over, fixed income will continue to offer select attractive investment opportunities
- Don't expect any broad-based, long-term commodity rebound, especially not in energy-related names
U.S. stocks are comparatively well positioned for further gains, albeit with lower expectations for the size of the gains. There are greater opportunities in large-cap European multi-nationals, which are currently trading at low multiples.
That said, those approaching or already in retirement, will have to reassess their investment strategy.
The assumption of a sustainable 4% withdrawal rate, coupled with relatively low taxes and near double-digit investment returns may prove overly optimistic.
The good news for investors is that there are plenty of strategies to diminish the impact of "the new normal" as Bill Gross has dubbed it.
The best strategy right now is don't overreact.
This correction will likely be short-lived and new highs should come in the next 12 months.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.