NEW YORK (
) -- Feel like some of the shine is wearing off QE3? John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., agrees.
"Six trading days after Fed Chair Bernanke & Co. launched the latest chapter of quantitative easing, investors who were looking for a party have instead received a near round trip ticket back to day one," he wrote in commentary released Monday. "Some who were nearly dancin' in the streets at the announcement, are now working hard at maligning the raison d'etre behind the launch and even projecting that the end result of QE3 will likely detract from, rather than add to, the process of economic recovery. Since the market first celebrated the arrival of QE3 last Thursday closing up 1.63% on the day, enthusiasm has indeed ebbed."
It's true. Aside from that initial burst, which to be fair was quite a leap, the major U.S. equity average haven't done much. And slowly but surely, market watchers are
that 2012 has to offer.
Stoltzfus thinks there's more upside ahead for stocks, though he believes it will be closer to the 10%-plus gain in the
during QE2 than the 36%-plus surge that accompanied QE1. He thinks the index will move "above and beyond" 1500 "before -- but not necessarily at -- year's end."
"We expect the effect of QE3 will be net positive for the economy and the markets during its tenure," he said. "Though likely not influencing such dramatic upside in asset class performance as QE1 launched in the depths of the financial crisis, the overall effect could well equal or rival the effect of QE2---boosting performance midst asset classes and elevating sentiment to good degree on Main Street."
Deutsche Bank, meantime, thinks the affinity that investors have exhibited for stocks so far in 2012 is about to be tried by a lackluster third-quarter earnings season.
"Although ECB and Fed actions have reduced tail risks, global growth, especially manufacturing and Asia construction have yet to show signs of an upturn," the firm said. "3Q is expected to be the first quarter of y/y EPS decline since the recession ended. The elections will influence whether fiscal policy adopts a stance as pro-growth as monetary policy. In our view, the period between now and elections will be a true test of market risk appetite."
As for Tuesday's scheduled news,
is reporting its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the closing bell, and Wall Street is looking for earnings of 58 cents a share in the August-ended quarter on revenue of $4.22 billion.
Shares of the St. Petersburg, Fla.-based provider of electronics manufacturing services are up more than 9% so far in 2012, but the stock has pulled back more than 20% since hitting a 52-week high of $27.40 in late March.
The sell side is bullish with 10 of the 13 analysts covering Jabil at either strong buy (6) or buy (4) and the 12-month median price target sitting at $27, implying potential upside of more than 25% from Monday's close at $21.37.
Deutsche Bank has a hold rating ahead of the report, saying the stock looks fairly valued vs. its peers at current levels.
"We expect results to be in line with guidance, which was for sales of $4.10-$4.35B and EPS of $0.54-$0.66," the firm said. "We are expecting another solid quarter from DMS
diversified manufacturing services, driven by Specialized Services, while we are incrementally more positive on HVS
high velocity systems (RIM business) but see further slow telecom and enterprise spending as a modest negative for E&I
enterprise and infrastructure. With macro weak, we anticipate moderately softer F1Q-13 guidance."
Check out TheStreet's quote page for Jabil for year-to-date share performance, analyst ratings, earnings estimates and much more.
Other companies reporting results on Tuesday include
FactSet Research Systems
The economic calendar features the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for July at 9 a.m. ET; consumer confidence data for September at 10 a.m. ET; and the Federal Housing Finance Agency housing price index for July at 10 a.m. ET.
was slumping in Monday's extended session after the heavy equipment company said it's taking a measured view of the global economy over the next few years. The Dow component gave a forecast for earnings of $12 to $18 per share in 2015 on sales ranging from $80 billion to $100 billion.
That outlook compares to the current average estimate of analysts polled by
is for a profit of $14.99 a share in 2015 on revenue of $97.13 billion and expectations for earnings of $9.61 a share on revenue of $68.77 billion in 2012.
"There are a number of geopolitical and economic factors driving uncertainty in the world today, but our base case scenario calls for modest global economic growth over the next few years," said Doug Oberhelman, the company's chairman and CEO, in a statement, also calling this "a reasonable view and the most likely outcome."
He then went on to pledge to keep up the company's dividend, which currently stands at $2.08 a share on a forward basis. "But just as we have done in the past, Caterpillar is ready to act if we enter a recession," Oberhelman said. "We don't think it's likely, but if it happens, we are prepared to react and would expect to remain attractively profitable and to maintain our dividend."
The stock was last quoted at $89, down 2.1%, on volume of nearly 600,000, according to
Also, shares of
fell in late trades after the software developer came in a
for its fiscal second quarter.
Written by Michael Baron in New York.
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