Shares of K did decline in the 2008 to 2009 bear market, chart above, but the decline was nothing like the losses in the financial sector or the housing industry. It only took K about a year to recoup the bulk of its bear-market losses.
This one year chart of K, above, shows a mixed, but improving picture. K is above the rising 200-day Simple Moving Average after at least four tests to break below it in recent months. Prices are now poised to break above the 50-day moving average. The volume and momentum studies have not lent much support on this time frame.
In this longer-term view of K, above, we can see that it has, for the most part, traded between $60 and $70, until recently. K may now be in a new and higher trading range, with $65 the new lower band and the low $70s as a new upper band.
TheStreet Ratings team rates KELLOGG CO as a Buy with a ratings score of B. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:
We rate KELLOGG CO (K) a BUY. This is driven by several positive factors, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its expanding profit margins and increase in stock price during the past year. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
- 42.71% is the gross profit margin for KELLOGG CO which we consider to be strong. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Despite the strong results of the gross profit margin, K's net profit margin of 6.15% significantly trails the industry average.
- KELLOGG CO's earnings per share declined by 6.5% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has suffered a declining pattern of earnings per share over the past two years. However, we anticipate this trend to reverse over the coming year. During the past fiscal year, KELLOGG CO reported lower earnings of $1.74 versus $4.95 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($3.49 versus $1.74).
- K, with its decline in revenue, underperformed when compared the industry average of 6.5%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly dropped by 8.4%. The declining revenue appears to have seeped down to the company's bottom line, decreasing earnings per share.
- After a year of stock price fluctuations, the net result is that K's price has not changed very much. Although its weak earnings growth may have played a role in this flat result, don't lose sight of the fact that the performance of the overall market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, was essentially similar. The stock's price rise over the last year has driven it to a level which is somewhat expensive compared to the rest of its industry. We feel, however, that other strengths this company displays justify these higher price levels.
- Return on equity has greatly decreased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of major weakness within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Food Products industry and the overall market on the basis of return on equity, KELLOGG CO has underperformed in comparison with the industry average, but has exceeded that of the S&P 500.
- You can view the full analysis from the report here: K
Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of Jim Cramer, TheStreet or any of its contributors.