NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Hardly a week goes by that one doesn't see something negative in the headlines about Brazil: the plunging real, the struggling economy, problems of poverty, crime and the growing gap between rich and poor. All this negative news is playing out in a dramatic downtrend on the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) - Get Report .
Like its economy, the chart of the EWZ shows some wide swings over the years, see below. A huge rally in the first half of the last decade was followed by a sharp decline and subsequent rebound.
Two other points jump off the long-term chart of EWZ, above. First, while other global stock markets went on to exceed their 2007 highs, Brazil did not. Second, unlike other global markets, Brazil has slumped below its 2008 bottom!
This shorter-term chart, above, can give us an idea on how low this ETF can trade in the weeks ahead. From 2014 and into 2015 the EWZ declined from around $55 to $30: a $25 leg lower. Prices recovered for about two months to around $37 before resuming the downtrend.
There is a chart pattern called a measured move -- or an A-B move. Typically seen on weekly charts like we show above, the security makes a relatively long move up or down, which is interrupted by a correction of a few months. This is the A-move. After the correction, the B-move follows. Chartists found, from real-time observation, that the distance covered in the A-move is roughly repeated in the B-move.
Subtracting the $25 decline in the A-move from the end of the correction at $37 gives us $12 as a potential downside price objective. A decline to just $12 for this ETF suggests more pain ahead for the Brazilian economy, and their currency, see below.