The firm has a $215 price target on the stock.
The Denver-based restaurant chain has struggled recently after missing on 2016 second quarter earnings and revenue - at 87 cents per share vs. estimates of 93 cents, and $998.4 million in revenue vs. estimates of $1.05 billion - and following several food-borne illness concerns and rising competition.
Stifel argues that even without the recent food safety incidents, "2015 would likely have marked the arrival of 'Peak Returns' at Brand Chipotle."
The firm cited Chipotle's 60% U.S. saturation and a new breed of "quick-casual concepts" that are meant to compete with the restaurant as indicating of a peak return.
The firm said Chipotle could lose up to half its value in the coming months.
Shares of Chipotle closed down 2.42% to $430.85 today.
Separately, TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its "risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this articles's author.
TheStreet Ratings rated this stock as a "hold" with a ratings score of C.
The company's strongest point has been its very decent return on equity which we feel should persist. At the same time, however, TheStreet Ratings finds weaknesses including a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself, deteriorating net income and poor profit margins.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: CMG