Trade-Ideas LLC identified

Harley-Davidson

(

HOG

) as an unusual social activity candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Harley-Davidson as such a stock due to the following factors:

  • HOG has more that 20x the normal benchmarked social activity for this time of the day compared to its average of 2.00 mentions/day.
  • HOG has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $179.4 million.

Identifying stocks with 'Unusual Social Activity' tends to be a valuable process for traders looking to capitalize on the 'talk of the town' stocks that are basking in far more attention from the StockTwits financial community than normal. Good press? Bad press? It ultimately doesn't matter if it's good or bad if you know how to trade around the sentiment. Certain hedge funds use such data for their proprietary algorithms and it is not uncommon to see shared social sentiment play itself out in a stock's price trend.

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More details on HOG:

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles & Related Products and Financial Services. The stock currently has a dividend yield of 3.1%. HOG has a PE ratio of 11. Currently there are 6 analysts that rate Harley-Davidson a buy, 1 analyst rates it a sell, and 11 rate it a hold.

TST Recommends

The average volume for Harley-Davidson has been 2.8 million shares per day over the past 30 days. Harley-Davidson has a market cap of $7.4 billion and is part of the consumer goods sector and automotive industry. The stock has a beta of 0.70 and a short float of 10.3% with 5.34 days to cover. Shares are down 15.1% year-to-date as of the close of trading on Wednesday.

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TheStreetRatings.com

Analysis:

TheStreet Quant Ratings

rates Harley-Davidson as a

hold

. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, notable return on equity and expanding profit margins. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself, deteriorating net income and generally higher debt management risk.

Highlights from the ratings report include:

  • Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 9.5%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 1.2%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displaying stagnant earnings per share.
  • The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Automobiles industry and the overall market, HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC's return on equity significantly exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • Net operating cash flow has slightly increased to $407.01 million or 2.70% when compared to the same quarter last year. Despite an increase in cash flow, HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC's average is still marginally south of the industry average growth rate of 12.59%.
  • The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed compared to the Automobiles industry average, but is greater than that of the S&P 500. The net income has decreased by 6.5% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, dropping from $150.07 million to $140.35 million.
  • HOG's stock share price has done very poorly compared to where it was a year ago: Despite any rallies, the net result is that it is down by 36.47%, which is also worse than the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Although its share price is down sharply from a year ago, do not assume that it can now be tagged as cheap and attractive. The reality is that, based on its current price in relation to its earnings, HOG is still more expensive than most of the other companies in its industry.

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