After the drama of Tuesday's U.S. elections, global investors this week will continue to predict the impact of the President-elect's arrival at the White House on different asset classes and attempt to separate the equity winners from losers.
(This week enthusiasm about Trump's planned infrastructure spending spree boosted commodity prices, and therefore mining stocks, and hopes he will peddle back on banking regulation lifted that sector. Defense stocks were also an early gainer, whereas bond prices have been hammered by worries his spending will stoke inflation).
In Europe the uncertainty about Trump's Presidency comes amid a background of still-weak eurozone growth and GDP figures from Germany and Italy on Tuesday will confirm that the recovery of the bloc as a whole remains fragile.
The two countries' third-quarter GDP reports come after quarterly estimates from France and Spain and after the EU's statistics arm estimated that the eurozone as a whole expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter, and by 1.6% year-on-year, unchanged from the second quarter.
Credit Suisse expects the German economy, which is perceived as the growth engine for the whole region, grew at a pace of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, and 1.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the second quarter, with Italy expanding by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after second-quarter stagnation.
Eurostat will also give a second estimate for eurozone growth on Tuesday
On Thursday final eurozone inflation data is expected to confirm an annual rate of October price growth of 0.5%.
Banking investors will be watching the events at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress on Friday for clues about how that sector will develop. Deutsche Bank (DB) - Get Report CEO John Cryan, pictured, and Commerzbank (CRZBY) chairman Martin Zielke are among the speakers. At a recent banking pow-wow in Frankfurt over the summer, Cryan sparked several days of excitement by advocating mergers in the sector across Europe. It emerged at the time Deutsche Bank had held abortive merger talks with Commerzbank. Since then interest in Deutsche Bank has intensified with news it is attempting to negotiate lower a threatened $14 billion fine from the Department of Justice related to mortgage-backed securities it sold before the credit crisis.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will also address the event on Friday.
From the U.K. this week, inflation data on Tuesday will be central. In September consumer price growth rose to a 22-month high of 1.0% and analyst are looking for 1.1% price growth in October. They predict that price growth will accelerate sharply next year as the weak pound pumps up the price of imported goods.
Average earnings figures for the three months to September on Wednesday will shed light on how far labor costs will add to the price pressures stoked by the weak pound. The FXStreet Ltd. consensus is for labor costs to have risen 2.3%. The three-month unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.9%.
British politicians will be hoping that retail sales data on Thursday build a picture of an economy not yet derailed by Britain's Brexit vote. The U.K. is reliant on the services sector for 79% of GDP, according to the Office for National Statistics. Credit Suisse is looking for 0.4% month-on-month growth in October retail sales.
From China on Monday comes a barrage of government data that will be scrutinized for clues as to how far growth will slow from last year's 6.9% rate. The figures include retail sales, urban investment and industrial production and analysts will be hoping for evidence of private sector spending, including expenditure by companies on capital goods.
In the second quarter Merck beat earnings expectations, thanks in part to its Gonal-f fertility treatment after the recall of a competing product in the U.S. At the time it lifted its full-year profit forecast, predicting it will make Ebitda of €4.25 billion to €4.4 billion ($4.6 billion to $4.8 billion) from a previous target range of €4.1 billion to €4.3 billion.
U.K. discount carrier easyJet (ESYJY) issues full-year results on Tuesday. The accompanying commentary will be watched for further news on the impact of Brexit on its business and any prediction on the eventual shape of post-Brexit aviation arrangements for U.K. carriers flying to Europe.
French telecom and construction company Bouygues (BOUYF) delivers third-quarter results on Wednesday.