This column was originally published on RealMoney on May 23 at 7:15 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
The biotech sector has sagged to 14.9% undervalued, and it looks as if there are bargains to be had.
March 31, I suggested that investors reduce holdings in the brand names with a market capitalization above $10 billion.
In the wake of their subsequent decline, they are testing value levels; investors who reduced holdings as I suggested should consider adding to positions.
A reminder: My evaluations are based on publicly available financial data and weekly and daily chart patterns -- I do not keep track of drug pipelines, FDA milestones or industry conferences.
I assume that investors know more about these factors than I do.
My guidelines should be used by those who know the details on the products and prospects to adjust their positions.
My benchmarks for biotech,
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund
Amex Biotechnology Index
( BTK), are down 12.5% and 11.3%, respectively, since March 31.
However, both appear poised to hold their October lows. With a potential tradeable bottom near, it's time to reset the profiles for the biggest biotech companies.
With shares of
still close to my semiannual pivot of $66.86, investors should pick up shares for a rebound to my monthly risky level of $72.19, where investors should reduce holdings.
If it falls through $66.86, wait to buy until it finds support at its 200-day simple moving average of $62.36, which is the next level at which to add to positions.
Add to positions in
on weakness to the 200-week MMA, $44.62, or a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average, $45.83. Investors should reduce holdings if it rises to my monthly risky level of $48.33.
The fair value of
( DNA) is up to $103.54 from $97.18 on March 30, which justifies adding to this position now. Investors should consider reducing this holding at my annual risky level of $84.48.
( GENZ) has tumbled to 18% undervalued and is worth a buy. The next buy level below is on weakness to the 200-week simple moving average, $51.01. Investors should reduce holdings if it rises to my annual risky level, $69.27.
tested its 200-day SMA of $53.64 on May 18, a level at which I previously said it could be bought back. With fair value up to $53.21, investors should consider adding to this position. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly risky level of $59.94.
Speculative Biotech Bargains
In my March 31 column, I suggested investing in a group of low-priced, ultra-speculative biotech names selling between $1 and $10 that were 50% undervalued. Only two stocks fit my criteria at the time, but due to the sector's slide, there are now 45 companies that are at least 50% undervalued. Six are rated strong buy or buy by ValuEngine.
The following are buy-rated names with market capitalizations over $200 million, but I must reiterate that my model does not take into account anything having to do with the companies' products and drug-development prospects. Buy these stocks only if you know that side of these companies:
traded as low as $6.29 on May 17. If it holds my quarterly value level of $5.72, there is upside to my quarterly risky level of $8.01.
The risk/reward in
is to my quarterly value level of $2.15 or up to my monthly value level of $6.06.
( RNAI) fell to $5.50 on May 19. I don't have a value level, but my monthly risky level is $7.42.
( SLXA) rises above my monthly pivot of $9.14, the upside is to my monthly risky level at $10.48.
fell to $7.69 on May 4. I don't have a value level, but a weekly close above my annual pivot of $10.87 should begin a momentum run for this stock.
If you own a low-priced biotech stock and want to know if it makes my list of 45, send me an email with the symbol.
P.S. from TheStreet.com Editor-in-Chief, Dave Morrow:
It's always been my opinion that it pays to have more -- not fewer -- expert market views and analyses when you're making investing or trading decisions. That's why I recommend you take advantage of our
premium Web site, where you'll get in-depth commentary
money-making strategies from over 50 Wall Street pros, including Jim Cramer. Take my advice --
Richard Suttmeier is president of Global Market Consultants, Ltd., and chief market strategist for Joseph Stevens & co., a full service brokerage firm located in lower Manhattan. Early in his career, Suttmeier became the first U.S. Treasury Bond Trader at Bache. He later began the government bond division at L. F. Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the technicals of the U.S. capital markets. He also has been U.S. Treasury Strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University.