FedEx shares were falling 12.94% to $150.87.
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FedEx reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.05 for the quarter, missing analysts expectations of $3.15. Revenue met estimates, coming in at $17.04 billion.
Management said it's looking for full year 2020 EPS of between $11 and $13, badly missing analysts hopes for $14.69 and its own previous guidance of $14.75. The weak outlook is very much attributable to a slowing Eurozone. Management called out the ongoing tariff war between the U.S. and China, which is damaging China's economy, and in turn, the EU.
Here's what analysts had to say:
Morgan Stanley, Equal Weight, Price Target Reduced From $131 to $120
"An ~20% fiscal year guide cut seized the narrative. The cut is big enough that earnings may have troughed but enough structural headwinds remain to keep earnings under pressure for a while. Now, we think this cut is big enough to finally call a potential bottom to earnings at the low end of the current guidance range. We note that 18 months ago the bull case on FedEx was "20/20/20" - $20 of EPS by 2020 at a 20x PE [20 times the EPS]. Both the earnings and the multiple have been cut in half since then. However, trough earnings alone is not a reason to buy the stock - we need to see a path to sustained growth in fiscal year 2021 plus as well, which remains a challenge."
- Ravi Shanker
Goldman Sachs, Buy, Price Target Reduced From $197 from $185
"While expectations were not high going into the quarter, the scope of the EPS reduction (y/y EPS now down 23% at the midpoint of the $11-$13 per share range) relative to the previous guide of down mid-single digits was quite disappointing. Management cited globally weaker conditions (China, UK, Eurozone) and softening U.S. Industrial production as providing the vast majority of the profit decrement relative to expectations from the June call (i.e. lower revenue run-rate). In addition, operating expense is running higher than expected on the back of expanded service offerings (purchased transport/rentals), greater mix shift to less dense consumer packages (exacerbated by the slower IP growth), and initial profit drag from lost Amazon business. While we admit concern regarding the pace of expected recovery due in large part to trade and macro uncertainty, we remain Buy-rated on FDX (on the CL). We are going to take the "forest through the trees approach."
- Jordan Alliger
Stifel, Downgrade From Buy to Hold, Price Target Reduced From $185 to $171
"If all goes well, the stock could be at $180 again next year. If not, there is still downside to the shares, so we will wait to see more favorable risk/return before getting interested again. Express (53% of revenue; 33% of EBIT) is where the main cuts were to management estimates, as both FedEx's global trade and global industrial production outlook has worsened. In our view, FedEx just pushed earnings out a year, as our new fiscal year 2021 estimate is basically the same as our prior FY20 estimate. In the near-term, the company needs to navigate through the TNT integration and global macro headwinds. FDX has been an underperformer and is unlikely to switch to an outperformer over the next few quarters unless this is finally "the sandbag event" and the global economy rebounds in 2020."
- David Ross