Preliminary U.K. and French third-quarter gross domestic product figures and forward-looking purchasing managers' indices will be among the data highlights of the European week ahead, while a raft of third-quarter earnings reports should keep equity investors sated.
The U.K. GDP figures will be closely watched after the country's Brexit vote, though original fears of a sharp slowdown in growth have eased after a series of generally positive economic indicators. Analysts are looking for third-quarter growth of about 0.4%, down from 0.7% in the second quarter, when the economy expanded at an annual pace of 2.1%. The Office for National Statistics reports the numbers on Thursday.
With the pound under pressure in recent weeks as the U.K. government - and EU counterparts - each talk tough about the type of post-Brexit deal Britain can strike, the Gfk's U.K. consumer confidence indicator for October will provide a glimpse of whether the investor panic is feeding through to shoppers. Consumer confidence plunged in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote but has since recovered to pre-Brexit levels. The GfK index comes out after the U.S. business day closes on Tuesday.
The French GDP numbers on Friday, which follow a 0.1% economic contraction in the second quarter, are expected show quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3%, according to the consensus forecast.
For a glimpse of the economic outlook, as opposed to history, forward-looking Markit purchasing managers' indices for October will be more enlightening. The release flurry by Markit on Monday culminates with euro zone services, composite and manufacturing indices. Credit Suisse analysts expect the composite PMI will rise to 53.0 from 52.6, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 53.0 from 52.6 and services PMI rising to 52.8 from 52.2. Disappointing euro zone PMIs in September raised concerns that the euro zone economy was losing steam, as Germany contended with services sector weakness and a French manufacturing downturn continued.
October German business sentiment indicators from the Ifo research institute are due out on Tuesday.
In September the Ifo data eased worries about slowing German growth. At 109.5, the business climate index beat expectations for an unchanged reading and came in at its highest level since May 2014.
Credit Suisse expects the business climate index to edge up to 109.6 in October, with current assessment rising to 114.8 and Ifo's gauge of expectations flat at 104.5.
Preliminary October French, German and Spanish inflation figures on Friday will be scrutinized for signs that warming euro zone inflation is here to stay. Credit Suisse analysts expect the EU-harmonized inflation rate to rise in all three markets, with the German and French figure coming in at 0.6%, compared with 0.5% in September. They tip Spanish price growth of 0.2%, after price stagnation last month.
In September the euro zone inflation rate doubled to 0.4% from 0.2%. The Eurostat will publish preliminary October euro zone and EU-wide inflation numbers on Oct. 31.
The corporate diary is packed next week, with all eyes likely to be on third-quarter results from Deutsche Bank(DB) - Get Report , which became a lightning rod earlier this fall for worries about the European banking sector. Investors will be looking for news about whether it's managed to negotiate lower an otherwise crippling $14 billion fine from the Department of Justice, and for any news on widely expected - but frequently denied - fundraising measures and other restructuring maneuvers.
Elsewhere in the banking sector Lloyds(LYG) - Get Report and Santander(SAN) - Get Report report on Wednesday, Barclays(BCS) - Get Report on Thursday, and Royal Bank of Scotland(RBS) - Get Report and Monte dei Paschi di Siena on Friday.
The diary also includes third-quarter results from Philips on Monday. Reported Qualcomm(QCOM) - Get Report bid target NXP Semiconductors(NXPI) - Get Report follows on Thursday. The Dutch group was on Friday reported by CNBC and others to be close to agreeing on a $110 per share, or $40 billion, offer.
Pharmaceuticals companies Novartis(NVS) - Get Report (Tuesday); Monsanto (MON) bidder Bayer (BAYRY) , and GlaxoSmithKline, (GSK) - Get Report (Wednesday); and Novo Nordisk(NVO) - Get Report and Sanofi (Friday) also announce earnings; as do car makers Fiat(FCAU) - Get Report and Renault (RNLSY) (Tuesday), Peugeot Citroen (PEUGF) (Wednesday) and Volkswagen (VLKAY) (Thursday).