NEW YORK (Bullion Bulls Canada) -- In Part I, readers were again reminded of two of the primary reasons we should all be converting our decaying paper currencies to gold and silver. Currency dilution and price suppression are realities that don't merely suggest bullion prices might rise in the future, but rather indicate why they must rise substantially.
However, precious metals investors don't have to limit themselves to just those two reasons why bullion prices must rise dramatically over the longer term. There is a "third leg" to this argument, an equally powerful dynamic also unequivocally certain to lead to much higher gold and silver prices.
I refer to the third leg of the precious metals bull as "demographics," but in actuality this is just a reference to some of the extremely potent supply/demand fundamentals certain to drive bullion prices much higher.
In the global economy, it is common knowledge that there is a relentless transfer of wealth (and economic power) from West to East, as the thriving economies of Asia have
economic growth and
income growth amongst their populations.
In China, per capita income was only around $1,000/year (USD) in 2003. By 2011, that figure had exploded to nearly $3,500 (USD) per person and China's government is expecting
a further doubling of that total by 2020. Given the
explicit recommendation by official (i.e. government) media for the Chinese people to invest those rising incomes in bullion, we don't simply suspect that Chinese bullion demand will continue to increase, we can be certain of it.
In India, per capita income finally crossed the $1,000/year threshold in 2011, which has already unleashed a wave of
discretionary consumption as low debt-levels/high savings and a low cost of living mean that Indian households are already rising above a subsistence existence at even these modest income levels.
However, Indians were voracious consumers of bullion even before they rose above this subsistence level, as their peasantry (who lack access to banking services) use their bullion holdings (generally in the form of jewelry) as their means of saving their wealth. This deep, cultural affinity for bullion is obviously unlikely to diminish as incomes rise further.
Instead, as indicated in a
recent commentary, India has a huge, national gold-deficit -- requiring the importation of hundreds of tons of bullion per year to satisfy domestic demand. With silver also widely held among the populace, there is a large silver deficit as well.
in Indonesia -- another very large Asian population with rising incomes and a growing economy -- gold currency has already been introduced into the economy several years ago.
And the appetite for gold in the Middle East petro-economies is nothing short of legendary. This is still another demonstration of the general understanding in Asia of a principle which is (as of yet) beyond the ken of Western Sheep:
gold is money; paper is merely currency.
During the period from 2003 to 2011, as Chinese per capita income more than tripled, global mine-supply of both gold and silver only increased by approximately 20%.
The response by the banking cabal to this large-and-increasing supply deficit in the bullion market is to do what comes so naturally to bankers:
sell "paper gold" -- i.e., sell Chumps paper but tell them there is gold (or silver) "backing it." Western banksters have been scamming Chumps in the West with this
fraud for many years, with their
paper-gold (and paper-silver) frauds as of yet not fully exposed.
Not only is this form of gold-fraud already alive-and-well in China, but some of the bankster scams have already started imploding over there. Not surprisingly, the Western banking cabal is now trying to bring their
gold-fraud to India's huge, domestic market as well. However, as even
Forbes Magazine observes, such fraud does not prevent prices from rising, but rather leads to even more spectacular price-spikes.
The dynamic here is simple. As the paper-gold fraud unravels (as all fraud inevitably does), there will be first the shocked discovery that actual supplies of bullion are only a tiny fraction of all "bullion" holdings. How tiny a fraction? Just ask Jeffrey
"100:1" Christian, head of the CPM Group.
A panic then ensues, as holders of paper who
they were holding gold and silver suddenly scramble to attempt to obtain the real thing. Most of these would-be buyers will end up disappointed -- especially in the silver market. Global silver inventories have already plummeted by
at least 90% over the past quarter-century, while noted silver authority
Ted Butler estimates that global stockpiles have declined by over 80% in the past half-century.
Most of this silver has been consumed industrially (in
tiny quantities) and is now scattered across landfills all over the globe. This silver is now gone forever; unless much, much higher prices make the recycling of this metal economically feasible.
For the more parochially minded Westerner, oblivious to these global demand demographics; our own demographic picture is perhaps even more startling -- but equally bullish.
Typically, Western investors have held between 5% and 10% of their wealth in precious metals, with that ratio tending to rise significantly in times of economic uncertainty. Yet with hopelessly insolvent Western economies in the grip of the worst economic crisis in their history (and showing absolutely no signs of being able to cope with it), we see the average Western investor with roughly 1% of their wealth (on average) in gold and/or silver.
If Western investors have any doubt about their own, absurd folly; they need to merely have a look at the actions of the world's central banks. Gone is the lie that gold is some "barbarous relic." It has been re-elevated to being the premier monetary asset in our monetary system.
Meanwhile, the lying central bankers have gone from being net-dumpers of nearly 500 tons of gold per year to net-buyers of roughly 500 tons/year -- with their gold-buying
increasing exponentially over the past three years.
Demand demographics couldn't be more simple:
has as much bullion as either they want, or they need. Meanwhile, on the supply side the parameters are equally extreme.
The relentless price-suppression of bullion and the even more-rabid "shorting" of gold and silver miners means that these mining companies are in the midst of their second depression in the last five years. Under such conditions it is absolutely impossible for any significant increase in mine supply. This refers not merely to the short term (one to two years), but the medium term as well (three to five years).
We have massive supply deficits in both the gold and silver markets, due to voracious and rising demand amongst the world's largest populations and most dynamic economies (with rapidly rising incomes). Conversely we have a totally stagnant supply picture, with absolutely no possibility of any significant increase in supply to match this demand -- no matter how high bullion prices go.
"Scrap" sales of gold and silver cannot possibly suffice. As noted, almost all our silver stockpiles are already gone. Meanwhile, the poorer holders of gold have
already pawned most of what they possessed, while (for obvious reasons) more affluent bullion-holders are unlikely to part with what they hold, even at dramatically higher prices.
Looking at the Big Picture the investment message is clear: nothing can beat this three-legged argument for a bull run. Purchase only real, "physical" bullion -- and avoid the bankers' magic beans.
At the time of publication, the author held physical gold and silver bullion and shares in gold/silver miners.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.