The euro weakness of the past several days was maintained overnight. It fell toward the 92-cent level.

The euro is opening at an 8-week low of $0.9215, well down from last night's close at $0.9265.

Today's

international trade

(

definition |

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source

) numbers are not likely to have much impact on currency markets.

"Two or three things account for the euro weakness," said Tony Norfield of

ABN Amro

in London. "First, IMM data showed that spec accounts are still long of euros, and lack of upside may mean that they will get rid of them. Second, the IFO data this morning were weak. Third, the dollar has seen some reasonable numbers recently." The IMM is the International Monetary Market in Chicago. It offers futures contracts on currencies and financial instruments.

The well respected German

IFO

business indicator survey, released this morning, fell sharply to 100.4 in June from 102.0 in May. This was well below the market expectation of a steady reading. The index is expected to pick up again in July.

Norfield is not positive over the immediate outlook for the euro. "We see a drop below 90 in the next month and maybe an attack on the record low of 88.50," he said.

On the other hand, some analysts are focused on a better long-term view of the euro. As noted in its weekly report,

Goldman Sachs

now expects the currency to be at $1.02 in three months rather than the prior forecast of $0.95.

Dollar/yen weakened overnight to open at 107.80. The

Bank of Japan

upgraded its outlook for the Japanese economy in its monthly report. BOJ governor

Masaru Hayami

noted this improved outlook in comments to reporters and again indicated that interest rate hikes are likely in the near term.

Euro/yen is again lower and has again pushed below the parity level to open at 99.45, reflecting the continuing decline in the euro.

Dollar/Swiss franc has benefited from the dollar's gains vs. the euro and is at a new high of 1.6785. The euro/Swiss franc rate has edged in favor of the euro at SF1.5470.

The pound also lost further ground against the dollar and is opening at $1.4965. Euro/sterling is lower at 61.60 pence.

U.K. retail sales, reported today, rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in June for a year-on-year rise of 4.5%.

The Canadian dollar firmed modestly in the past 24 hours and is now around C$1.4745. This rally seems to confirm a significant breakthrough and should indicate further room for appreciation.

The Australian dollar lost further ground and is opening at $0.5775, 50 basis-points below last night's close at $0.5825. Traders see the break of the $0.5820 level as targeting new lows and, so far, that has proved valid. The New Zealand dollar is softer at $0.4555.

The South African rand weakened to 6.96 as the euro loses ground and is also somewhat affected by a bomb blast yesterday in Cape Town.

The Polish zloty is unchanged at 4.33 vs. the dollar but is firmer against the euro.

The Mexican peso is steady at 9.34.

The Indonesian rupiah continues to firm and is opening at 8,960 after yesterday's close at 9,230. The rupah, however, is still down by 22% since the beginning of this year.

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