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The dollar is getting drilled today vs. the euro, which is what we were expecting with any kind of equity market rally, and we are still hoping to buy the
PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish
at lower levels.
The 50-day moving average for the UUP as of today is $24.86.
A new Administration and the potential for a sharp shift to the left in both the House and the Senate changes the dynamics of the trade somewhat.
Prior to the July 15 top in the euro, the U.S. dollar's weakness for the last few years was the longest bout of weakness prior to the late 1960s. You would think there would be more upside to the buck, if only from a mean-reverting perspective, but if the political center of the U.S. shifts solidly to the left and trade, tax policy and government regulation follow its typical course, then any expected U.S. dollar strength might not materialize.
The one saving grace to the stronger dollar trade is that Europe might go further to the left than the U.S., and with lower rates in the European Union and more regulation of the European banking system (as Sarkozy seems to want), the U.S. dollar just might turn out to be the best house in a bad neighborhood.
It is a fluid game plan. Stay tuned.
At the time of publication, Gilmartin held no related positions.
Brian Gilmartin, CFA, founded Trinity Asset Management (TAM) in 1995, where he is currently a portfolio manager. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Gilmartin appreciates your feedback;
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