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EUR-USD: Further Downside Expected

With its pattern of higher highs and lows broken, risk of further downside has shifted to the 1.4176 level.

By Mohammed Isah of fxtechstrategy.com

EUR-USD: The pair's doji candle triggered declines that continued the past week pushing it to close lower at 1.4332 and through its strong support levels at 1.4479, its Oct. 2 high, and 1.4446, its Aug. 5 high.

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With its pattern of higher highs and lows broken, halting its medium-term uptrend, risk of further downside has shifted to the 1.4176 level, its Sept. 1 low, with a turn below there paving the way for a run at the 1.4044 level. Further out, support is located at its big psycho level at 1.4000.

This view is supported by its weekly studies which are bearish and trending lower suggesting further downside weakness. On the other hand, resistance starts at 1.4444/79 levels at which we expect a reversal of roles. If that fails, further upside could shape up towards the 1.4625 level, its Nov. 3 low, and then the 1.4799 level, its high on Nov. 20. If the latter level fails to hold, we may see a further climb higher towards the 1.4949 level, the back of its invalidated LT rising trend line.

On the whole, with its key support levels taken out , further downside weakness is expected towards the 1.4176 level and possibly beyond.

Mohammed Isah is a technical strategist and head of research at FXTechstrategy.com, a technical-research Web site. He has been trading and analyzing the foreign exchange market for the past seven years. He formerly traded stocks before crossing over to the forex market, where he worked for FXInstructor LLC as a technical analyst and head of research before joining FXTechstrategy.com. He has written extensively on the forex market and technical analysis and his articles have been featured in The Technical Analyst Magazine, The Forex Journal Magazine, The International Business Times and FXstreet.com. At FXTechstrategy.com, he writes daily, weekly and long-term technical commentaries on currencies and commodities, which are offered to its clients. He also produces

The Professional Suite

for his subscribers. He provides full coverage of the forex market with specific focus on G10 currencies as well as the commodities markets, with focus on five key commodities.