EUR-USD: The pair's entry into the 1.4554-78 region continues to face bear attacks. A test of the 1.4554 level failed today, sending EUR lower.
As referenced in our previous analysis, the pair will have to firmly hold above the 1.4446/79 levels to open up upside risk toward the 1.4625 level, its Nov. 3, 2009 low, or risk a return to the downside, toward the 1.4262 level, its Jan. 8 2010 low.
Its hesitation ahead of the 1.4625 level may be giving us a clue of what may happen next. If below the 1.4262 level is traded, downside threats will target the 1.4216 level, its 2010 low. This is our preferred bias, which is consistent with its short-term declines triggered off the 1.5143 level.
Invalidating the 1.4216 level will resume its short-term trend toward the 1.4176 level, its Sept. 1, 2009 low, with a loss of there accelerating further downside weakness toward the 1.4044 level, its Aug. 17, 2009 low and subsequently its big psycho level at 1.4000.
However, if EUR is able to hold off the bears' attacks ahead of the 1.4625 level and eventually breaks there, further upside threats could be seen toward the 1.4799 level, its Nov. 20, 2009 high, or even higher. On the whole, while hesitation continues to be seen ahead of the 1.4625 level, risk of a break back below the 1.4446/79 levels could be shaping up.
Mohammed Isah is a technical strategist and head of research at FXTechstrategy.com, a technical-research Web site. He has been trading and analyzing the foreign exchange market for the past seven years. He formerly traded stocks before crossing over to the forex market, where he worked for FXInstructor LLC as a technical analyst and head of research before joining FXTechstrategy.com. He has written extensively on the forex market and technical analysis and his articles have been featured in The Technical Analyst Magazine, The Forex Journal Magazine, The International Business Times and FXstreet.com. At FXTechstrategy.com, he writes daily, weekly and long-term technical commentaries on currencies and commodities, which are offered to its clients. He also produces
for his subscribers. He provides full coverage of the forex market with specific focus on G10 currencies as well as the commodities markets, with focus on five key commodities.