The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views of TheStreet or its management.
NEW YORK (
) -- The dollar index has been on a roller coaster ride on Tuesday, having absorbed a Monday session of trade that was dominated by futures markets, due to the Presidents' Day bank holiday in the U.S. An explosive move higher from a test of support at 77.50, the same price point that now forms a quadruple bottom that has seen moves higher over the course of the last five months, created momentum that added 1.5% to dollar index values overnight.
However, the failure of European cash market trade to drop equities lower, and the ability for U.S. futures market trade to hold
contracts above 1320, reversed the moves in the dollar index, ahead of Tuesday's Wall Street trade.
These are unique trading times, with unique economic environments, and unique central banking outlooks, that are pitting one region against another in regard to currency valuations and fair value. The
is not alone in wanting to manipulate its currency, but does stand alone as the instigator of explosive moves higher in equity and commodity trade, which have not yet been matched by the same percentage drops in the U.S. dollar.
Overseas holders of U.S. debt are not going to allow the Federal Reserve to easily crush the value of the greenback, and are trying to negate Fed-induced commodity inflation, which increases the value of regional exporting countries' currencies.
These are pivotal times in regard to economic and social outlooks, both of which will have as much to do in finding fair value on global currencies as the quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve. The globalization of markets seen over the course of the last five years is now at an inflection point that really does look to be setting new values in regard to the U.S. dollar, which highlights the need for something other than just the greenback to be used as the global reserve currency. (Read gold, silver, and oil).
In general, traders will be well advised to bank early and bank often when using currency to trade in-line with days that risk is being bought, because one sound-bite or headline has the ability to greatly move all markets. It would be wise to watch the complete Tuesday session of global trade that absorbs Wall Street's first trading session of the week, before decisions are made as to where the dollar, and the major currencies, will be able to trade going into the beginning of March. One thing that is perfectly clear, however, is the global markets' desire to hold the dollar index above 77.00 support.
Marco Hague is one of the founders and principals of The London Forex Broadsheet (commonly known as TheLFB), a global forex trader portal with headquarters in the U.S. Hague began his career with the Bank of England dealing with foreign exchange control, and he has been trading for the last three decades. He has been involved with institutional risk asset ratio analysis and the implementation and maintenance of institutional trade desks globally.