The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) - With AUD-USD violating its key supports in the 1.0422 area in early trading Thursday, the risk is for it to weaken further.
The pair is testing the 1.0366 level, its daily 200 exponential moving average and a decisive break of there will turn focus to the psychological level of 1.0300. Further down, support stands at 1.0253, its .618 Fibonacci Retracement (0.9861-to-1.0853 rally). Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view.
The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to its Feb. 8 high at 1.0853. Above there will end its present bear threats and open further upside risk toward the 1.0900 level, representing its psychological level.
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Further out, the next upside target is the 1.1000-level area and ultimately, the July 27 high at 1.1078. Until this occurs, our bias remains lower on further weakness.
All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside.
Mohammed Isah is a technical strategist and head of research at FXTechstrategy.com, a technical-research Web site. He has been trading and analyzing the foreign exchange market for the past seven years. He formerly traded stocks before crossing over to the forex market, where he worked for FXInstructor LLC as a technical analyst and head of research before joining FXTechstrategy.com. He has written extensively on the forex market and technical analysis and his articles have been featured in The Technical Analyst Magazine, The Forex Journal Magazine, The International Business Times and FXstreet.com. At FXTechstrategy.com, he writes daily, weekly and long-term technical commentaries on currencies and commodities, which are offered to its clients. He also produces
for his subscribers. He provides full coverage of the forex market with specific focus on G10 currencies as well as the commodities markets, with focus on five key commodities.