Cramer: The Next Short-Killer Is MGIC - TheStreet

This column was originally published on RealMoney on April 17 at 11:33 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

We would always be worried about it being too easy when I was at my hedge fund.

Coke

? Was that so hard?

Goldman Sachs

? What were we thinking selling that at $195? Did anyone really think that

AIG

wouldn't come back when the insider selling let up, which it seems to for a day or two?

This market is a short-killer because it is

obvious

. Once some factors were priced in -- inflation and the subprime chaos -- anything good would trigger a monster rally.

Let's take the case of

Moody's

(MCO) - Get Report

and

McGraw-Hill

(MHP)

. How could people

not

have covered on these the moment that

Fremont

(FMT)

said things were OK? Moody's is levered to leverage buyout bonds,

not

residential mortgage bonds, although the latter will live again as repackaged bonds with an equity kicker.

I'm glad I

told you about Moody's and McGraw-Hill Monday. Hope you did them. I have the next one:

MGIC

(MTG) - Get Report

.

Let me reiterate that MGIC, which didn't go down on that last quarter -- one that was just plain toxic -- will now explode to the upside for the same reason that the ancillary plays like Moody's and McGraw-Hill exploded.

My level of conviction? I would buy the

April

60 calls. One call, and you have 5 points to the upside.

Who wouldn't take that risk reward?

Random musings:

OK, let's get over it. It wasn't a meltdown. It was just a series of corrupt companies writing bad loans and thinking they could get away with it. If it were a "meltdown," wouldn't

Countrywide

(CFC)

have taken out its low? ... Some fun stuff

on video with James Altucher about who taught me to buy down. Never talked about that before. ... There's almost no open interest in the

Sears

(SHLD)

April 200s. That's a good sign. It means there is no cap on the stock, because people won't get long as it gets higher. I bet the stock doesn't stop here.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs, AIG and Sears Holdings.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

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