The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- With crude oil halting its recovery at the 83.64 level and taking back its Tuesday gains in Wednesday's trading session, risk of a resumption of its medium-term downtrend is now shaping up.
Pressure is building up on the Sept. 26 low of 77.11. An eventual violation of that level will trigger further weakness toward the Aug. 9 low of 76.61. A move below here will pave the way for resumption of its medium-term downtrend (started from the 115.46 level) toward the Sept. 2009 low of 74.41.
Further down, support lies at the July 2009 low of 72.50. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view.
Alternatively, the commodity will have to climb back above the 90.69 level to reverse its present bear threats and bring further strength toward the Aug. 3 low of 94.13 and subsequently the July 26 high of 100.62.
All in all, crude oil remains vulnerable to the downside in the medium term.
Mohammed Isah is a technical strategist and head of research at FXTechstrategy.com, a technical-research Web site. He has been trading and analyzing the foreign exchange market for the past seven years. He formerly traded stocks before crossing over to the forex market, where he worked for FXInstructor LLC as a technical analyst and head of research before joining FXTechstrategy.com. He has written extensively on the forex market and technical analysis and his articles have been featured in The Technical Analyst Magazine, The Forex Journal Magazine, The International Business Times and FXstreet.com. At FXTechstrategy.com, he writes daily, weekly and long-term technical commentaries on currencies and commodities, which are offered to its clients. He also produces
for his subscribers. He provides full coverage of the forex market with specific focus on G10 currencies as well as the commodities markets, with focus on five key commodities.