Bounce From Lows Brings Cheer, Along With Skepticism
You can't say that it wasn't dramatic the way stocks turned this morning, the way the heavy early selling found investors willing to buy. And you can't say that it isn't cheering to see it, after days and days where any hint of strength was met by selling. It's comforting to see the trading screens finally flash green.
But skepticism is reigning on Wall Street, where the move is seen as little more than a head fake, a momentary respite on the way to declines that will end with a much more capitulative downturn than what we saw this morning.
Both fundamentally and technically, said Peter Canelo, U.S. strategist at
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
, the market is on shaky footing.
Fundamentally, the concern is interest rates, and a growing concern that the
Fed
will raise rates not just at its meeting Aug. 24, but also at its Oct. 4 get-together.
"What's happening is, we had this crisis, it brought inflation down a little bit too much and it brought interest rates down a little too much," said Canelo. "So rates are going back where they were." This is really not too much of a problem -- the market was doing fine when rates were higher, after all -- but Canelo thinks it will be enough to weigh down the market through to the end of the quarter.
Technically, Canelo is worried about what effect the Internets will have on the market. "We have seen a massive head-and-shoulders top on
TheStreet.com Internet Sector
index," he said. In that context, today's turn in the dot-coms is not very comforting, representing the usual fake-out rally after a
head-and-shoulders gets completed. Among the technically minded, it's considered the classic shorting opportunity.
The DOT lately was up 3 to 493, having traded as low as 452.90.
"In my opinion, we're going to 300" on the DOT, said Canelo. That, he thinks, will bring margin calls which will prompt selling in other issues. "That could take the
S&P 500
below 1280, and then you go back to your February and March lows." Around 1220.
The corollary level on the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
to 1280 is 10,500, according to Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at
Everen Securities
in Chicago. "I think the market, in terms of the Dow, has a fighting chance to stay in the trading range it's been in since April, 10,500 is shaping up to be the pivotal point -- we are probably in danger of brushing it and playing with fire." If the Dow breaks that level on heavy volume, Nie worries that his indicators will point bearish for the first time in a long while.
The Dow was lately up 30 to 10,704 while the S&P 500 was down a fraction to 1305. The
Nasdaq Composite Index
was off 6 to 2534. It had been as low as 2474.41. The
Russell 2000
was off 4 to 426.
Canelo doubts that Dow will get too heavily hit, though, protected by its weighting in cyclicals. The S&P, loaded with tech and financials, is another story. "I think you need anywhere from four to six weeks just to grind out the weak hands, losing positions, margin calls and that sort of thing," he said. Once the selling is over, though, "I think we're going to see a tremendous rally in the market in the fourth quarter."
Decliners were topping advancers 1,945 to 868 on the
New York Stock Exchange
with 540 million shares changing hands. There were 150 new 52-week lows against 25 new highs. In
Nasdaq Stock Market
action, decliners were beating advancers 2,472 to 1,186 on 753 million shares. There were 174 new lows and 23 new highs.
Thursday's Midday Watchlist
By
Eileen Kinsella
Staff Reporter
In the the midst of a volatile market, investors responded harshly to companies that missed earnings estimates or warned of bad news to come. Shares of
Buckle
(BKE) - Get Report
got belted 9 5/8, or 34.2%, to 18 9/16 after the company said it could miss the
First Call
consensus expectation of 31 cents a share by as much as 4 cents.
Protein Design Labs
(PDLI) - Get Report
weakened 4 3/16, or 15.5%, to 22 7/8 after reporting a wider than-expected-loss of 14 cents a share for the second quarter, compared with a five-analyst estimate of a 9-cent loss and a year-ago loss of 5 cents.
Upscale retailer
Neiman Marcus
(NMG)
wasn't looking so fancy after the upscale retailer warned fourth-quarter earnings might miss their mark by as much as 5 cents due to weak sales. The current five-analyst estimate is for 12 cents. Shares slipped 1 3/16, or 7.6%, to 22.
Separately,
Internet Capital
(ICGE:Nasdaq) was a bright spot in the otherwise bleak IPO market. Its shares rocketed up 10 3/4, or 89.5%, to 22 3/4 after
Merrill Lynch
priced 14.9 million shares at $12 each.
Mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures
American Access Technologies
(AATK)
added 5/8 to 17 3/8 and
Herman Miller
(MLHR) - Get Report
slipped 5/16 to 25 9/16 after the companies announced a marketing deal.
Calpine
(CPN)
rose 3/4 to 74 1/4 after it said it entered into an agreement with a subsidiary of EXCHANGE="" PRIMARY="NO"/>
Enron
(ENE)
to acquire development rights for natural gas power plant in California. Shares of Enron were flat at 84 13/16.
Cardinal Health
(CAH) - Get Report
lost 11/16 to 66 3/8 after it said it's acquiring privately held
Automatic Liquid Packaging
of Woodstock, Ill., a custom manufacturer of sterile liquid pharmaceuticals and other health-care products, for $390 million in stock.
IBM
(IBM) - Get Report
added 7/8 to 119 3/8 and
i2 Technologies
(ITWO)
tacked on 3 1/2, or 13.4%, to 29 3/4 after the two companies agreed to jointly market supply chain software to companies moving their business onto the Internet.
Jabil Circuit
(JBL) - Get Report
added 3 3/4, or 10.2%, to 40 7/16 after it said it plans to acquire
GET Manufacturing
, a privately held electronics manufacturing services provider which is headquartered in Hong Kong, for $250 million in stock. GET has principle manufacturing operations in China, with additional sites in Mexico and California.
Earnings/revenue reports and previews
Ethan Allen
(ETH) - Get Report
lost 1/2 to 27 5/16 despite posting fourth-quarter earnings of 54 cents a share, ahead of the 12-analyst estimate of 52 cents.
Pier 1 Imports
(PIR) - Get Report
fell 2 11/16, or 30.7% to 6/16 after it said its chief financial officer resigned and second-quarter earnings will fall below expectations. Pier 1 said it expects to report earnings of 12 to 14 cents a share. The 15-analyst estimate called for the company to earn 18 cents. The company said Stephen Magnum, the CFO, is leaving "to pursue other interests."
Royal Dutch/Shell Group
, on an adjusted current cost of supplies basis, posted better-than-expected second-quarter results of $1.61 billion, up about 5% from $1.54 billion in the year-ago period.
Royal Dutch Petroleum
(RD)
which owns 60% of Royal Dutch/Shell Group, rose 2 1/8 to 62 1/2 while
Shell Transport & Trading
(SC) - Get Report
, which owns 40%, added 2 1/8 to 49 5/8.
UnitedHealth Group
(UNH) - Get Report
jumped 5 5/8, or 10.1%, to 61 3/16 after posting second-quarter earnings of 76 cents a share, ahead of the 21-analyst estimate and up from the year-ago 45 cents.
Offerings and stock actions
Be Free
, an Internet marketing service, said it plans to raise $60 million through an IPO of common stock.
Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette
,
Hambrecht & Quist
and
Dain Rauscher Wessels
will underwrite the offering.
CIT Group
(CIT) - Get Report
fell 2 1/16, or 7.9%, to 23 7/8 after it said it approved a 2-million share repurchase program.
Things were looking blue for the trading debut of
Cobalt
(CBLT:Nasdaq), which lost 1 5/8, or 14.8%, to 9 3/8 after being priced at $11 a share by
BancBoston Robertson Stephens
.
Interactive Pictures'
(IPIX:Nasdaq) lost 3 /16 to 17 15/16 after
J.P. Morgan
priced its shares top-range at $18 each.
Trizetto Group
, a health-care Internet portal in Newport Beach, Calif., said it plans to raise more than $57 million in an initial public offering.
Bear Stearns
, DLJ and
Adams Harkness & Hill
will underwrite the offering.
Analyst actions
Charles Schwab
(SCH)
climbed 1 5/16 to 38 15/16 after
Warburg Dillon Read
initiated coverage with a buy rating and set a price target of 55 on the stock.
Dow Chemical
(DOW) - Get Report
gained 3 5/16 to 121 15/16 after J.P. Morgan and
PaineWebber
raised their recommended ratings to long-term buy, and attractive respectively.
Miscellany
Eastman Kodak
(EK)
lost 5/8 to 69 7/8 after it said that Jesse Greene has been promoted to senior vice president of business strategy and information technology, a newly created position that expands the executive management team. Greene will report directly to Dan Carp, who will become the company's CEO in January, Kodak said.
Microsoft
(MSFT) - Get Report
gained 1 1/4 to 86 1/8 after it said it's laying plans for low-priced, or perhaps even free, Internet access in a challenge to
America Online's
(AOL)
dial-up Net-access business, as reported in
The Wall Street Journal
. AOL lost 5 5/8, or 6.4%, to 81 3/4.
The Heard on the Street column in the
Journal
today takes a look at prominent analyst Bill Burnham of
Credit Suisse First Boston
. The column notes that his record at First Boston has been mixed, pointing out that his 12-month price targets on
E*Trade
(EGRP)
and
Ameritrade
(AMTD) - Get Report
have been surpassed, but two of the IPOs he recommended after First Boston took the companies public -- online broker
TD Waterhouse Group
(TWE)
and
Pilot Network Services
(PILT)
, an Internet-security firm -- are now trading well below their IPO prices. People in the industry say new investment banking clients have been drawn to First Boston because of Burnham's clout, the column reports, helping to improve the firm's rankings in Internet underwritings.
