This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 7 at 1:44 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
Could this be the long-awaited breakout of
? This stock has been, with the possible exception of
, the most profound disappointment of 2007.
The froth of the iPhone coupled with a belief that the new device must be a failure because of its price point -- even as my teenage daughters tell me otherwise -- has kept a huge lid on the story.
I think that lid could be sliding off.
Here's why: We are able, now, to see the power of Steve Jobs. He owns a whole industry with this iTunes, a
industry. Who can imagine what will happen when we get to iTV?!?
Jobs is the most important man in media; therefore, Apple is the most important company in media -- again, with the possible exception of Google.
To me that's worth more of a premium than Apple currently sells for.
Indeed, the great mystery of Apple is how darned cheap it is vs. its growth rate. Apple sells at 26 times next year's earnings estimate, with a 20%-plus growth rate. That makes no sense and reflects a belief that iPhone's a joke like
Zune. It isn't.
What people are missing is what was in that great article in
The New York Times
over the weekend about
and how the Razr wasn't fashionable.
Jobs, and Apple, have a sense of style. Jobs has an eye. The iPhone will sell at a premium and get it, the same way
sells its goods at a premium and gets it, or if you want to use an analogy for the younger generation, how
Abercrombie & Fitch
gets you to pay much more for its jeans than you should.
The fashion price-to-earnings ratio is lacking for Apple. The shorts have been laying all over it -- and Microsoft and
and Google -- for weeks now.
I think the rude awakening is coming.
One of the reasons I see a quick short-selling rout is the way that
is trading. After the
disappointment, after the blowout quarter that
had and the sad aftermath, if you were a short-seller you had to believe that shorting Intevac was risk-free. Oops! Glass half-full!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard.
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