This column was originally published on RealMoney on June 13 at 10:28 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
The technology sector is 11.2% undervalued, with computers 16.5% undervalued, semiconductors 14.5% undervalued and software 10.2% undervalued.
With most tech stocks on the slide, their weekly chart profiles have gone negative with declining or oversold momentum (12x3 weekly slow stochastic).
With many names shifting 180 degrees from overvalued and overbought to undervalued and oversold, it's time to consider when to rebuild a technology portfolio, and with which names.
In setting my screens, I found that there are no tech stocks with a market capitalization above $1 billion that have a strong buy or buy rating from ValuEngine.
Casting the net wider, I looked for hold-rated tech stocks that are at least 20% undervalued with a market capitalization above $10 billion. I came up with 10 names.
Before rushing out to buy these stocks, keep in mind that I am not bullish on the market. The
weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week modified moving average at 2235.
If the Nasdaq ends the month below its five-month MMA at 2232, the monthly chart profile will shift to negative, confirming the double top at 2375 set in April as the high for the year, if not longer.
In the second half of the year, it could fall to the April 2005 low of 1890. My semiannual support is at 1853.
My model suggests that a tradable bottom could occur if the market opens lower on Wednesday in reaction to the CPI data. The daily chart profile shows that the Nasdaq is oversold, in a similar fashion to May 24, this time with support somewhere between 2060 and 2030.
Investors who allocate assets to technology now should start to rebuild positions slowly and on weakness to my value levels using dollar-cost averaging and good-till-cancelled limit orders.
is down about 30% from its January high, swinging it from overvalued to 21.1% undervalued. Adobe bucked Monday's down market on an upgrade to outperform from neutral by Cowen. Investors should add to positions on weakness to the 200-week simple moving average of $24.03.
has fallen some 23% from its February high and is 24.3% undervalued. A fall to my semiannual pivot of $31.33 would make it worth picking up.
fell 40% from its January high to its May low, and is the most undervalued of the 10 stocks at 37.5% below fair value. A record crowd attended the fifth annual eBay Developers Conference over the weekend, and the company introduced several new applications which should help the stock near-term. Investors who buy now should be prepared to add to positions on weakness to a value level, which should evolve next month.
Electronic Data Systems
is down about 15% from its March high, making it 24.1% undervalued. Last week, EDS announced that it was increasing its stake in Indian outsourcing firm Mphasis. I'd add to positions on weakness to the 200-week SMA of $21.20.
is down about 20% from its March high and is trading 27.7% below its fair value. It would be worth a buy if it drops to its 200-week SMA of $11.66.
is down some 37% from its January high and is 32.8% undervalued. The embattled chipmaker has had three brokerage upgrades in the past seven days. Investors should add to positions on weakness to my quarterly value level of $16.08.
has plummeted 38% from its January high and is 21.1% undervalued. On Monday, the company announced that its planned 2-for-1 stock split had been approved by shareholders and will likely be effective on July 24. I'd buy if it drops to my quarterly value level of $43.37.
is down some 23% from its January high, leaving it 21.8% undervalued. Add to positions on weakness to my semiannual value level of $19.91.
is down 23% from its April high and is trading 32.4% below its fair value. Prudential upgraded it to neutral from underweight Friday. I'd add to positions on weakness to my semiannual value level of $10.65.
is down 24.9% from its January high and is trading 28.2% below its fair value. Monday morning, the company announced that it was privately selling $2 billion in convertible senior notes. Investors who buy now should be prepared to add to positions on weakness to a value level, which should evolve next month.
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Richard Suttmeier is president of Global Market Consultants, Ltd., and chief market strategist for Joseph Stevens & Co., a full service brokerage firm located in lower Manhattan. Early in his career, Suttmeier became the first U.S. Treasury Bond Trader at Bache. He later began the government bond division at L. F. Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the technicals of the U.S. capital markets. He also has been U.S. Treasury Strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University.