Against the Spread: 2010 NFL Picks: Week 9
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Betting against the spread in NFL games may be one of the reasons my love for baseball has diminished over the years.
My record after eight weeks is 23-17, so I'm safely in the black heading into Week 9. Last week, I went 3-2 in my against-the-spread picks, which was good enough for a win. But overall, I had a miserable week with losses in picking Denver, Dallas, Cincinnati, Washington, Kansas City and Seattle.
Randy Moss |
Growing up, baseball was my absolute favorite of the professional sports, and my dad used to bring me to Fenway Park regularly in the late 1980s. As I've gotten older, though, my interest in baseball has waned as my love for the NFL has grown. I blame this on my first visit to a Vegas sports book during the NFL season.
That bias toward football seems to extend to the media.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series
for the first time in more than 50 years, but those headlines were instantly replaced when the
Minnesota Vikings
waived Randy Moss after he allegedly complained about catering in the Vikings locker room.
Unfortunately, NFL bettors can't play the Randy Moss move this week, as the
Tennessee Titans
have the week off. Thankfully, there are other value plays out there this week.
One betting theme this season has been the outperformance of underdogs, although that didn't hold true in Week 8. By my count, only five underdogs managed to cover the spread; Four of those teams won outright, including Green Bay and Miami.
In fact, Week 8 saw every home team favored by odds makers. More than half of the favorites in Week 9 are on the road, which could be a recipe for upsets this week.
With that in mind, it's on to my picks for the slate of games in Week 9. Once again, I've enlisted the help of
Paul Bessire.
I've also collected commentary on each game from
Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson
. His analysis focuses on the spread movement by his oddsmakers and a look at where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These are necessary tools for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value based on betting trends.
Read on for the first game preview, the Sunday afternoon matchup between the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
and the
Atlanta Falcons
.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5)
Laying 8.5 points is a lot, even if you're among the elite teams of the NFC. That number looks even more egregious when the underdog opponent looks to be the sleeper team of the season, even perhaps a potential Wild Card winner.
The Atlanta Falcons are a stellar team this season. When quarterback Matt Ryan (pictured above) plays at home in Georgia, the team is nearly unbeatable. In this season, though, the Falcons haven't given more than a touchdown to any team, including a 49ers team that was 0-3 heading into the Week 4 game against Atlanta.
While the Falcons are returning from a week off, the Bucs are back on the East Coast after a big comeback win against the Arizona Cardinals. Similarly, the Buccaneers have not be underdogs by more than 6.5 points this season. Tampa Bay has also been terffic on defense, forcing 18 turnovers in seven games.
Bessire's Take
: "I wouldn't say that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 'for real,' but 8.5 points is just a few too many in this circumstance. I understand that both of Tampa Bay's losses have been by 25 points and come at home when they have played elite competition in Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Now Tampa Bay goes on the road to face a 5-2 Falcons team coming off a bye. All of that says Falcons win big, which may be true, but 8.5 points is too big -- and Atlanta is not elite. As of right now, the Falcons are predicted to finish with the second best record in the NFC behind the Giants. That has more to do with the schedule than dominance. Atlanta has faced the 16th toughest schedule in the NFL and ranks 20th in passing efficiency, 16th in running efficiency, 30th against the pass and 18th against the run in the NFL. None of that says blowout."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Opinions are mixed on this matchup with heavy volume pushing the number from Atlanta as a 7.5 point favorite to 9.5. Currently the price is 8.5 and the close is anyone's guess. The Bookmaker.com odds makers are showing more respect for the Falcons and expect to close the matchup as a 9 point favorite."
The Pick: Buccaneers +8.5
. A fun stat: The Falcons are 0-3 against the spread when playing the Bucs at home, and are only 1-5 overall against the spread when playing Tampa Bay over the last three years. This Bucs team is certainly better than it has been in the past, so even if the Falcons are victorious at home, it's hard to expect them to win by 9 points or more.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-9)
Wow. The Arizona Cardinals are a bad team. I have to assume Larry Fitzgerald watches
Dancing With The Stars
every week hoping for Kurt Warner to be voted off the show.
The Cardinals returned from an off week and promptly loss on the road in Seattle and at home to the Buccaneers. Turnovers were the difference in both games, while the defense continued to allow running backs to rush up and down the field.
That bodes well for the Vikings and running back Adrian Peterson (pictured above). The Cardinals allow more than 140 rushing yards per game. An elite rusher like Peterson should have no problem carrying the ball well, whether Brett Favre or Tavaris Jackson is in the quarterback position.
Bessire's Take
: "Plain and simple, Arizona is not good at all right now. The Cardinals rank 31st in our power rankings -- barely ahead of Carolina -- and they have to go on the road to take on a talented team that is desperate for a win. With the recent moves by the players and coaching staff, the Vikings are probably just as likely to crumble, as they are to galvanize and rally. The fun part for Minnesota is that it should win this game either way. Look for huge numbers out of Adrian Peterson (like 125+ yards rushing) and for the Vikings to win the penalty and turnover battle easily in a rout."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Bookmaker.com opened Minny an 8 point favorite and the early money pushed the home team up to 9 points. Shoppers will find this spread jumping back and forth from 9 to 9.5 all the way until post time with the sharps buying a half a point to 10 whenever they can spot the movement."
The Pick: Vikings -9
. The Cardinals can be the cure for what ails the Vikings. Favre was hit hard in the game against the Patriots, but Jackson did well filling in during the fourth quarter, even passing for a touchdown. This should easily be a rout in favor of Minnesota, who needs to feast on bad teams like Arizona before the schedule gets tough down the stretch.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-2)
I have done a terrible job at betting on games involving the Oakland Raiders this year, so I may be stupid trying to pick this specific matchup.
One thing I do know about the Raiders is that they have difficulty stopping teams with a good running back. Oakland's four losses this season come when the defense allows more than 100 rushing yards, as they did to the Titans, Cardinals, Texans and Niners. Quarterback Jason Campbell (pictured above) is slated to start for the Raiders this Sunday after performing well recently.
The Chiefs, coming off back-to-back wins at home, are hoping that the Raiders' rushing defense is soft this Sunday. That's because the Chiefs have been winning almost exclusively because of their rushing attack, piling up more than 190 rushing yards per game (compared to only 164 passing yards per game).
Bessire's Take
: "When we first played this game against Oakland at -2.5, we liked Oakland as a moderate play. However, with the news that Nnamdi Asomugha has a high ankle sprain and will likely miss the matchup with the Chiefs, we think the pick could easily go either way and don't have as strong of an opinion. Oakland's rush offense has been tremendous lately. In the two games where Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Jason Campbell have all played, the team has put up over 1,000 yards. However, it's been the defense, and creating turnovers that has really led to the domination. If Asomugha plays and is close to 100%, Oakland is the play at -2.5. If he doesn't play at all, Kansas City becomes a decent value -- and Dwayne Bowe is an even better fantasy option."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Oakland Raiders were played the last two weeks by the wise guys and they are looking to ride the streak for a third week in a row. Bookmaker.com opened the Raiders a 1-point favorite and quickly jumped to 2.5 until settling as a 2-point favorite. Volume has been heavy on this matchup thus far but the odds maker's believe this price will come down by the end of the week."
The Pick: Chiefs +2
. I like the value in this pick. As I wrote, Kansas City has a terrific running attack. If they can rush for more than 100 yards -- which they have done in every game this season -- the Chiefs should have no trouble winning this game outright. It should also be noted that over the last three seasons, the Raiders are 0-3 against the spread when hosting the Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
I have to disclose up front that I'm not particularly confident in this pick. That said, with the Colts a popular bet for the public at large, the Eagles actually feel like the underdog in this game.
Indianapolis has a huge public following because they're really good and they win a lot of games, plain and simple. My concern with picking Peyton Manning this week is that both Colts losses this season came on the road to the Texans and the Jaguars. Those teams don't strike fear into the heart of anyone.
Meanwhile, Sunday's game will see the return of Michael Vick to the Eagles after a Week 4 injury that fractured his collarbone. Vick hasn't thrown an interception all year, although that may change against a strong Colts defense.
Bessire's Take
: "For us, this is a 'no pick' between two of the NFL's top 10 teams. The 3-point line favoring the Eagles is essentially representative of a home-field advantage, and that's all that really separates these two teams. I expect a lot of action on Indianapolis here, so much that the line may drop to -2.5. If it does, we like the Eagles to cover. People will be impressed with what Peyton Manning was able to do with so many injuries at home against Houston. But Houston has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and the Colts were at home coming off a bye. Now, the Colts are on the road, outside and on short rest against what we view as a top 10 pass defense. "
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Eagles opened Sunday evening as a slight favorite with a 1-point advantage until the smart money drove the spread to 3 points. Once Philly hit the key number 3, the trading flowed both ways. It is predictable that Bookmaker.com will stick to the 3-point spread for the rest of the week."
The Pick: Eagles -3
. The Colts have lost when the defense allows more than 120 rushing yards in a game. While DeSean Jackson is reportedly going to play Sunday, a stingy Colts defense will force Vick or LeSean McCoy to run the ball more.
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+1)
I really don't like Jay Cutler (pictured above). It's nothing personal. I believe that's he's one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league, and not even Mike Martz can help him.
That said, Cutler is unlucky in that he plays behind the Bears' offensive line, which is absolutely horrendous. That may change when guard Roberto Garza returns to the lineup after Chicago had last week off.
The Bills, on the other hand, look much better than their 0-7 record may indicate. As much as I dislike watching Cutler play, I love watching Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buffalo has been up against a tough schedule so far this season and came within one score of beating the Dolphins, Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs. That 0-7 record could easily be 4-3.
While Buffalo should have home-field advantage, this is the team's annual trip across the northern border to Canada.
Bessire's Take
: "Since quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick took over in Week 3, Buffalo has lost three games by one score or less, including the last two by just three points on the road against teams with winning records. Buffalo has played the league's toughest schedule so far and put up some respectable numbers. One might think that Chicago has a good matchup against a team that has only intercepted one pass all season. It's the other way around. This is a great chance for the Bills' defense to force turnovers and get pressure. Chicago has only faced the 30th toughest schedule so far, including taking on four quarterbacks -- Shaun Hill, Jimmy Clausen, Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb -- who may not be the best/preferred starting quarterbacks on their own teams. The play of Fitzpatrick and the struggles of the Bears' offense should be enough to keep this game close throughout."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "There sometimes can be a neutral field advantage. However, this game is being played a stone's throw away from Buffalo in Toronto, Canada. Bookmaker.com opened the Bears as a 2.5-point favorite and quickly settled on 3. The volume has been brisk and coming in on both side. The number 3 should hold until closing with a slight lean to the Bills."
The Pick: Bears -1
. Chicago running back Matt Forte has been MIA this season. His one strong performance came against Carolina on the road. The Bills are worse at stopping the run than Carolina, allowing an average of 188 rushing yards per game. That may take some pressure off Cutler and allow the Bears to eke out a road win in Canada.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston
.
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