BOSTON (TheStreet) -- It's time to shed a tear for the end of the NFL's regular season as well as my record for picks against the spread.

Due to the holiday and a rush to complete

other projects

for

TheStreet

, I did not manage to assemble my column ahead of the games last week. However, if you

follow me on Twitter

, you saw that I picked the

Detroit Lions

,

New York Jets

,

Washington Redskins

,

St. Louis Rams

and

San Diego Chargers

against the spread.

Tom Brady (New England Patriots)

Of those five picks, three were winners, pushing my overall column record to 40-39 with one tie. My success rate is right at 50%, shy of the magical 53% threshold.

>>College Football: Bowl Crunch Time

A bettor typically needs to win 53% of his or her bets in order to profit, based on the idea that you have to wager 110 units in order to win 100 units. If I can run the table this week and go 5-0 with my picks, I'd be at 52.9%. Wishful thinking, I know.

Then again, there is a lot for bettors to be grateful for this week, even if Week 17 marks the end of the NFL's regular season. For one, there are a handful of games that bettors should steer clear of. Many teams have nothing to play for while other teams are bound for the playoffs and may rest players.

Uncertainty over which players will start and which players will sit creates havoc for bettors, as the lines can change on these games in the blink of an eye.

"I worked on the picks Tuesday and Wednesday morning and had them ready to go by 2 p.m. yesterday afternoon," says Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site

PredictionMachine.com

. His Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread. However, Bessire says he was forced to redo most of his work by Wednesday afternoon.

"There were five games where the lines changed by 4 points or more between Tuesday and Wednesday," Bessire says. "It's my most frustrating week for that reason, and it could continue to happen as we find out which players are resting."

For bettors who pay close attention to the market for lines, it'll be very interesting to see what happens, as the motivation for certain teams could change, which could come as late as 4 p.m. ET on Sunday. For instance, if the

Atlanta Falcons

lose to the

Carolina Panthers

in their 1 p.m. ET game, the

Chicago Bears

would be more motivated to beat the

Green Bay Packers

in order to secure the top seed -- and home-field advantage -- in the NFC.

"It's about timing and how the market can change so quickly," Bessire adds. "It's a week of potentially great value depending on when you get the pick in. You can get great value early, but it becomes a lot riskier."

Like the Bears and Falcons, I'm certainly motivated to win this week, so let's get to the picks for Week 17. Once again, these are for entertainment purposes only. And as always, I've enlisted the help of

PredictionMachine.com's

Paul Bessire.

I've also collected commentary on each game from

Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson

. His analysis focuses on the spread movement by his oddsmakers and a look at where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These are necessary tools for bettors on the hunt for inefficiencies and value based on betting trends.

Read on for the first game preview, the

Tennessee Titans

and the

Indianapolis Colts

.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-10)

I hate laying double digits in NFL games, so I don't feel particularly great that the Colts are giving 10 points to the Titans in the final week of the NFL season.

If this game were played in Week 17 of the last few years, it'd be a no-brainer to take the underdog and the points, because the Colts always rest Peyton Manning and other starters late in the season. But unlike recent years, the Colts are scratching to get into the playoffs, rather than sitting pretty with home-field advantage locked up.

Even without Austin Collie, the Colts' offense looking surprisingly strong last week against the Raiders. Oakland was an underdog by 3 points in that Week 16 game, and some bettors thought they had found value in an Oakland pick, including yours truly. But the Colts found a way to stop the run, like they did the week before against the Jaguars.

Bessire's Take

: "Typically, we'll end up staying away from double-digit lines, but we love Indianapolis in this spot. It's a pretty big line, but all signs point to the Indianapolis Colts, who have the playoffs to gain with a home win, blowing out a Tennessee Titans team that laid down against Kansas City as the Chiefs clinched the AFC West by winning 34-14 last week. When these two teams met a few weeks ago on Thursday night in Tennessee, both the Titans and Colts had a shot at the playoffs, yet Indianapolis won easily. A late, meaningless touchdown gave the Titans a back-door cover, but the score really should have been 30-21. Combine that outcome with the impact this game has on the Colts, that this game is played in Indianapolis, the health of the Colts and the regression of the Titans' defense and we should see an easy double-digit win from Indianapolis."

Bookmaker.com Take

: "Indy looks to control its own destiny in the last week of the season. A hometown win gives them a seat to the playoffs. The early money is backing Manning taking the spread from 8.5 to 10. The sharps believe there is no chance for an upset placing more wagers in the money line than the spread. Bookmaker.com will close this event at 10 points, although shoppers will see an occasional 10.5."

The Pick: Colts -10

. The Titans aren't playing for anything, not even Jeff Fisher's coaching job. Under normal circumstances, the Colts win this game by a touchdown easily. With a playoff spot on the line for Indy and nothing to win or lose for Tennessee, the Colts get that extra score to win by 10 points or more. I wish I had locked this in at Colts -8.5, but there's still value in a Colts -10 pick.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10)

This is probably going to be my favorite game of Week 17 because there is so much riding for both teams. The Packers need to win this game if they hope to make the playoffs, while the Bears need to win in order to secure a bye week and home-field advantage in Round 2.

While it's tempting to blindly pick the Packers at -10, given how they've been a juggernaut recently, bettors need to understand how important home-field advantage in the playoffs is for the Bears. Either the team gets a week off and then hosts a game in the divisional round, or they have to play next week at home against a dangerous New Orleans Saints team, depending on how the other games in Week 17 shake out.

No matter what, though, the Bears are in the playoffs. The same cannot be said for the Packers. If Green Bay loses, they have to hope that both the Giants and Buccaneers lose their respective games later Sunday. The Packers are finally healthy with quarterback Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a concussion in Week 14 and they flexed their muscles in brutalizing the Giants last week. If I'm an NFC team, I'm afraid of the Packers.

Bessire's Take

: "In Lambeau Field and as healthy as they currently are, the Green Bay Packers are 10 points better than Chicago. Motivation or otherwise, Green Bay should win this game easily. The Packers may have the best team in the NFC. It will be a tough battle for Green Bay to make the playoffs and get to the second round, but the team is as capable as any in the conference of making a Super Bowl run. And given how good the Packers looked against New England and the Jets, they're probably the team best suited to pull in upset for the NFC in the Super Bowl."

Bookmaker.com Take

: "The Packers need a win to get into the playoffs and Chicago has an outside chance to gain home-field advantage. Bookmaker.com made Green Bay a 10-point favorite and it has stayed steady since it opened. There could be big movement before kickoff. If the Falcons and the Saints both lose, then Chicago will put on its game face to gain home-field advantage."

The Pick: Packers -10

. I don't think the Falcons are going to lose to Carolina, so that would kill some of Chicago's motivation. For Green Bay, though, this is essentially a playoff game. Given how well the Packers have run the ball recently and how the defense has kept a lid on opposing offenses, it's hard not to take the home team here, even if it means laying 10 points.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-14.5)

Another game with big playoff implications and another double-digit spread. I can't honestly take another home favorite, can I?

The Falcons didn't instill much confidence in bettors last week with a Monday night loss to division rivals the Saints. Atlanta managed only 215 total yards on offense and turned the ball over twice to New Orleans. The loss snapped a streak of eight wins for the Falcons and kept the team from securing a top seed in the NFC. If the Falcons don't win this game and the Saints win against Tampa Bay this week, the Falcons will drop all the way to the fifth seed overall.

Then again, it's really hard for me to take Carolina, even with the outsized point spread, on the road. They performed admirably against the Saints in New Orleans as well as against the Browns in Cleveland. However, the Panthers lost their other five road games by an average of 15.8 points. They also lost to the Falcons at home earlier this season by 21 points. Simply put, Carolina can't score a lot of points.

Bessire's Take

: "The numbers have a difficult time supporting the claim that Atlanta should be greater than 14-point favorites against any team. Carolina is the worst team in the NFL, but Atlanta is barely in the top 10 and not expected to be very dominant over anyone. In our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, the Falcons rank 28th in passing, 24th in rushing, 18th against the pass and 22nd against the run. In other words, the Falcons are not in the top half of the NFL in any major category (aside from wins). It's hard to expect a team that average to blow out any opponent -- regardless of motivation."

Bookmaker.com Take

: "The Falcons opened as a 14.5-point favorite over the Panthers, and so far the action has remained steady on both sides. Atlanta has clinched a playoff spot and could get home-field advantage with a win and a Saints' and Bears' loss. It is more likely for Bookmaker.com to close this event 14 than 14.5."

The Pick: Falcons -14.5

. All Atlanta has to do is win and they are guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. At 14.5 points, I'm almost tempted to take the Panthers. But Jimmy Clausen is horrendous as the quarterback of the Panthers. He has two touchdowns and eight interceptions in 12 games this season. Why would I expect him and the Panthers to do well on the road in the final game of a terrible season?

New York Giants at Washington Redskin (+4)

One of my editors here at

TheStreet

is a Giants fan, and I've been telling him for weeks that New York will not make the playoffs. Even after the blowout victory over the Vikings, I said the Giants aren't good enough.

Of course, the Giants are still in the hunt and can be the sixth seed in the NFC with a victory against the Redskins and a Packers loss to the Bears. And the Giants have shown that they can beat up on the Redskins after a 31-7 win in Week 13 in New Jersey.

A lot has changed since Week 13 for both teams. The Giants collapsed against the Eagles, and they followed that up with a lopsided loss to the Packers last week. The Redskins, on the other hand, have been a good pick against the spread with Rex Grossman at quarterback and Donovan McNabb on the bench. Could the Redskins upset their division rivals and spoil any chance at the Giants making the playoffs?

Bessire's Take

: "We actually like the home underdogs in this spot. The Redskins' offense has played better and stayed in both games with Rex Grossman starting at quarterback. Obviously, in New York's last two games, the Giants have regressed. Likely without Hakeem Nicks (Steve Smith is also out for the season), New York's offense could struggle even more. Eli Manning has not played well when down multiple receivers this season. We clearly don't expect Grossman to look like Aaron Rodgers did last week, yet the Redskins' offensive output should be enough to keep this in doubt throughout."

Bookmaker.com Take

: "The Giants could get into the playoffs with a win over the Skins. However, they would need Chicago to beat the Packers. This seems unlikely, but the early money is still backing the Giants, moving the opening line from 3.5 to 4. Bookmaker.com predicts New York to close as a 4.5-point favorite."

The Pick: Redskins +4

. If this was Giants -3, I might bite on the favorite. But I have zero confidence in the Giants, especially on the road against a team that appears to be rejuvenated. The McNabb quarterback controversy is just noise, and Rex Grossman is certainly not as good as the numbers would indicate. But Washington has a very good chance of spoiling the Giants' playoff party and could get their Coach Tom Coughlin fired.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

With NFC West title hanging in the balance, this crappy game gets a lot more interesting. It's so interesting that NBC flexed this game into prime time.

I like St. Louis, mostly because their coach is great, and I love watching rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. The Seahawks, though, are an awful team to watch. Last week's game against the Buccaneers was truly painful, as Seattle managed only 174 yards on offense while the defense surrendered 439 yards.

That has been the story with the Seahawks all year. Early wins in the season against the Chargers and Bears likely fooled a lot of bettors into picking Seattle against the spread this season. But since the win in Chicago, the Seahawks have been able to defeat only weaker teams in the Cardinals and Panthers. At 6-9, the Seahawks could make the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.

St. Louis, on the other hand, has a chance to finish with an 8-8 record as the NFC West winner with a victory in Seattle Sunday night. What bodes well for the Rams and Bradford is that the Rams almost always win when they score 20 or more points in a game. But like Seattle, the Rams have defeated weaker teams. In order to pick this regular season finale, bettors needs to know which team is actually the weakest.

Bessire's Take

: "Before the season, my standard response when asked why we simulated the entire NFL season 50,000 times was because we wanted to be able to get so specific that we could say that 'the St. Louis Rams made the playoffs 15 of those 50,000 times, yet never won more than eight games, meaning that they never won the wild card and that the NFC West could be won with an 8-8 record.' Not only did I not realize how prophetic that would be, I did not even think to look into the likelihood that an NFC West team -- or a team from any division -- could make the playoffs with a losing record. Fortunately, all playoff teams should be at least .500, as the Rams have the much better team that has also been improving as of late. An easy case can be made that Seattle has been the worst team in the NFL since the Seahawks' bye week. In their last nine games, the Seahawks have lost by more than two touchdowns in seven games. In fact, in Seattle's nine losses, they have lost by at least 15 points each time, including a 20-3 loss at St. Louis in Week 4. "

Bookmaker.com Take

: "Bookmaker.com may have opened a bad price this week, overestimating home-field advantage and the battle for the NFC West. Seattle opened as a 1-point favorite and the wise guys quickly pushed the spread to the Rams as a 3-point favorite. This rarely happens in the NFL without a major injury announcement. The early money says the Rams are the right side and it is doubtful the spread will move from the magic number 3."

The Pick: Rams -3

. Charlie Whitehurst is starting the game for the Seahawks. He's thrown only one touchdown in five games. Marshawn Lynch has six touchdowns, but three came against the Panthers. I don't see where Seattle is going to generate the offense needed to beat the Rams. I like Bradford at quarterback, even though I know there is concern that a rookie could crumble under the pressure of this game, especially at Qwest Field. Even so, Stephen Jackson should do well running the ball and the Rams should win and make the playoffs.

-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston

.

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