
Against the Spread: 2010 NFL Picks: Week 14
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- It's Week 14 in the NFL season, leaving precious few weeks left for bettors in Vegas to win with their picks against the spread. Thanks to a winning record in Week 13, I'm nearly back in the money with still time to play.
Overall, my record with against-the-spread picks is 34-30 with one tie. Last week, I won with correct picks of the Patriots, Steelers, Browns and Eagles. My only loss came after picking the
Buffalo Bills
as underdogs playing the
Minnesota Vikings
. Despite knocking Vikings quarterback Brett Favre out of the game, the Bills were blown out and didn't come close to covering the spread. Still, I hold onto a winning record this season, which is something former Denver coach Josh McDaniels can't say.
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If you are a professional bettor, you typically need to win 53% of your bets in order to profit. That's based on the idea that you have to wager 110 units in order to win 100 units. With 34 correct picks out of a total of 65 so far this season, my success rate is 52.3%, just shy of that 53% threshold. If the push from Week 11 is factored as a win, my winning percentage rises to 53.8%. In TheStreet's Yahoo! Pick 'Em league, where entrants pick every game each week against the spread, my record of 107-79 is good for a 57.5% winning percentage.
And now here we are at Week 14, where a two issues standout when it comes to picking games against the spread. The first is that there are nine road favorites this week. Last week, I noted the trend that road underdogs have a good record against the spread. With a majority of road favorites, which are favored to win by an average of less than 4 points, bettors are given a great opportunity to take some underdog picks with the benefit of home-field advantage.
For example, the
Indianapolis Colts
traveled to Tennessee last night as 3-point favorites but failed to cover, winning the game 30-28. In my estimation, the Titans were one of the more difficult underdogs to take this week, given the extensive issues the team has dealt with on and off the field. Again, if you're looking for value though, Tennessee was the right pick.
Secondly, weather becomes a bigger factor in games starting this week. The Sunday matchup between the
Chicago Bears
and
New England Patriots
is expected to be played in snowy conditions with severe winds. Similarly, weekend games in New Jersey, Carolina, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh will be played in tough weather conditions.
"The wind is of much great significance," says Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site
. His Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.
"It's about how the wind impacts the passing game. It's a much bigger impact than precipitation. I wouldn't say that the lines that we're looking at greatly account for weather. But once people wake up Sunday morning and they see the stadium video with snow, it all changes. You need to get in ahead of time and take advantage of it now."
When it comes to those tough weather conditions, the margin of victory typically shrinks. Bessire notes that bad weather typically leads to lower scoring games, "and you can expect it will be a closer game as well."
So without further ado, it's on to my picks for the slate of games in Week 14. Once again, these are for entertainment purposes only. And as always, I've enlisted the help of
Paul Bessire.
I've also collected commentary on each game from
Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson
. His analysis focuses on the spread movement by his oddsmakers and a look at where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These are necessary tools for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value based on betting trends.
Read on for the first game preview, the Sunday meeting between the
Cleveland Browns
and the
Buffalo Bills
.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Here I go again with the Browns!
When I was first trying to guess the line for this game, I expected Cleveland would be favored by 2.5 points. When I found it to be Bills -1, I immediately tried to figure out why. First of all, Cleveland doesn't have a terrific road record, losing to the Bucs, Ravens, Jaguars and Steelers. Cleveland has been victorious in New Orleans and just last week in Miami. Secondly, I thought Colt McCoy would be returning this week as quarterback for the Browns, but after missing practice Thursday, it looks like Cleveland will have Jake Delhomme back under center.
The Bills, on the other hand, took a monster step backwards last week. I've found the Bills to be intriguing and fun to watch, despite the miserable 2-10 record. Buffalo has a good quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick and had a good running game for several weeks. Last week, though, the Bills hit a wall in Minnesota, allowing the Vikings to rush for 210 yards. That came a week after allowing Steelers running backs to run for 206 yards. The Bills defense doesn't get to rest yet, as they now have to find a way to stop Peyton Hillis, who has nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season.
Bessire's Take
: "We definitely respect the Bills and fully acknowledge that they have played better than their record. That being said, Cleveland is in a similar position - even without Colt McCoy at quarterback. The Browns currently rank in the top half of our power rankings, ten spots ahead of Buffalo. The Buffalo Bills give up 4.7 yards-per-carry and 171 yards-per-game on the ground. Uh, Peyton Hillis...? The Bills greatest strength -- running the football with Fred Jackson -- is essentially neutralized by a decent Browns' run defense. Buffalo has homefield advantage, where they are a 1-5 and have been outscored 142-99. Sure, the Bills have kept games relatively close against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Miami at home, but they lost all of those games and that's all that matters with this line."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Bookmaker.com posted the Bills as a 1.5-point favorite over the Browns Sunday evening. Although these two teams have a poor win record, they have shown signs of excellence during the course of the year. Expect the spread to stay steady with Buffalo's home-town advantage."
The Pick: Browns +1
. I love this underdog pick. The Bills are only favored because they're at home. This line says that Vegas actually believes the Browns are a better team, and I agree. As I said last week, I'm going to want to vomit every time I see Jake Delhomme in the shotgun, but Buffalo will not be able to stop Peyton Hillis from rushing for big yards. Given the weather outlook for this game -- notably the high winds -- the running game becomes more important. The Browns only allow 119 rushing yards per game, compared to 170 rushing yards per game for the Bills defense.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5)
I've been terrible at picking games involving either team that I have to believe a game involving both can only bring good things. Sound logic, huh?
I'm not joking. I looked back at a friendly contest I'm in and the Raiders and Jaguars games are ones I consistently get wrong, and it appears as though it's because I have underestimated both teams.
Take the Raiders. Last week they were 13-point underdogs to the Chargers. I picked San Diego last week, but put few confidence points on the pick. Not only did the Chargers fail to cover, the Raiders handily defeated them. This is the same Raiders team that lost by 16 points to the Dolphins in a game at Oakland the week before.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, have been fairly consistent over the last few weeks, going 5-0 against the spread in the team's last five games. But I'm still not convinced they're a good team. Aside from the Colts, the Jaguars have beaten mediocre to crappy teams, including the Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Texans, Browns and Titans. Maybe it's that thought process that constantly has me doubting Jacksonville.
Bessire's Take
: "Jacksonville has proven to be our toughest team to accurately predict. The Jaguars have covered the spread in the last five games since David Garrard returned from injury. Oh, for the good old days of betting against Todd Bouman. Still, we think this number is just a little too high. Jacksonville is the slightly better team and is playing at home. That's good for 3.5 to 4 points, but not five. The jump from 4 to 5 points is significant. Since it's the difference between a touchdown and a field goal, rewarding the underdog in a close game for losing by a 4-point margin or less can make that underdog a strong play. Healthy, and with an offense capable of putting up big points, Oakland is definitely good enough to keep this within a one-score game. Neither defense is exceptional here, so expect a shootout no matter who wins or by how much."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Bookmaker.com oddsmakers have seemed to peg this matchup correctly giving the Jaguars a 4.5-point advantage. The head count so far is two ways but the majority of the money is finding the Jags. It is more probable to see this number close 5.5 with the hedge crowd finding value buying a half a point to 6."
The Pick: Raiders +5
. There are a few things I don't like about picking the road underdog in this case. West Coast teams are terrible when traveling east for a 1 p.m. ET game. The Jags defense has also been good at stopping the run, while Maurice Jones-Drew is really turning it on. The Raiders are also playing their second road game in as many weeks. To me, this is a trap game for Jacksonville. They had division opponent Tennessee last week and the Colts next week. They can win this game against Oakland, but it shouldn't be by more than 5 points.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
The NFC West may be the least interesting division to follow for the public -- the division champ could actually make the playoffs with a losing record -- but NFL bettors against the spread can still find value in seemingly boring games like this one.
Let's examine the Seahawks first. In Week 1, Seattle stomped on the 49ers, winning by a score of 31-6 in a game where San Francisco was favored to win. However, the Seahawks have not been able to prove they can consistently win on the road, going 2-4 away from the friendly confines of Qwest Field. It doesn't help that the Seattle defense has been completely ineffective in stopping opposing running backs. Excluding the Week 10 game against Arizona, Seattle's defense has allowed an average of 177 rushing yards per game over the last six game the team has played. Yeesh.
The Seahawks, though, avoid facing 49ers quarterback Troy Smith, as Alex Smith has been reinstalled in the position for this game. It has been six weeks since Alex Smith has started for the 49ers, and he has only lead the team to one victory this year. In Week 1 against Seattle, Alex Smith completed a season-high 26 passes, but he threw for only 225 yards and two interceptions. Without Frank Gore in the backfield,
Bessire's Take
: "San Francisco is switching back to Alex Smith at quarterback. Unless you have him (or Vernon Davis - Alex's favorite target) in fantasy football, that does not mean much. What does matter in this game is how lucky/unlucky these teams have been. Seattle has faced the 29th toughest schedule and has been outgained by more than a half a yard through the air and on the ground, yet is still in position for a playoff spot at 6-6. The Seahawks are also just 2-4 on the road (and 4-2 at home). San Francisco has played a tougher schedule (23rd) and has outgained its competition by more than half a yard per rush (the 49ers have been outgained through the air by just 0.3 yards-per-pass), yet is stuck at just 4-8. However, the 49ers have 3-3 at home (1-5 on the road). In other words, Seattle is not nearly as good as its overall record, especially on the road; San Francisco is better than its overall record, especially at home. It's a big number for a 4-8 home favorite - and we don't have a very strong opinion on it - but the 49ers are good enough to win this game by a touchdown."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "It seems Seattle has more to gain than San Fran has to lose with this division matchup. The 49ers opened favored by 4.5 and has stayed consistent throughout the week. Bookmaker.com predicts the sharps will play the dog late with a close of 3.5 to 4.5."
The Pick: Seattle +5
. Do I want to pick a team still fighting for a playoff spot, or one playing musical chairs at quarterback and without their star running back? This is a no-brainer. I'm not crazy that Seattle is on the road, but they have shown they can win on the road with victories in Chicago and Arizona. But even if they don't win, they should hold it close with the Niners.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+3)
Houston, like many teams in this year of parity, is still in the playoff hunt. That's baffling to me this late in the season.
I'm so puzzled by it because of how bad the Texans defense is. They've managed to contain opposing running backs, allowing roughly 101 rushing yards per game on average. Houston stinks, though, in stopping quarterbacks from completing passes. Stripping out Week 12's game against a woeful Titans team, the Texans allow an average of 301 passing yards per game.
Luckily for Houston, they're playing at home this week against a team that will not be able to capitalize on those weaknesses. I know Baltimore is a strong contender in the AFC, but I have absolutely no faith in Joe Flacco, especially considering last week's awful finish in the Ravens loss to the Steelers. Flacco has more passing targets, like Anquan Boldin (pictured above). But the offense still averages two turnovers per game. And even worse, Ray Rice hasn't been the star running back he was last season.
Bessire's Take
: "These teams have about the same shot at winning their divisions, though Baltimore is almost a lock to make the playoffs, while Houston can really only get in by taking the AFC South. That's great news to fans and those who like Houston +3 here because the game means something to both teams and should remain competitive. In the end, Baltimore is the better team, but it's much closer than most probably expect. Unless Flacco leads an early drive or two that puts the Ravens up big -- a possibility against a defense prone to giving up the big play -- and forces the Texans to focus almost exclusively on passing, this game should come within a few points either way. Part of the reason this is not a strong opinion is due to the high likelihood of a push at Baltimore -3."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Ravens need to bounce back after the bad beating from the Steelers last week however the smart money is
slightly
against them. Baltimore opened as a field goal advantage and the early money pushed the juice toward Houston. This game will not move from the magic number 3 however Bookmaker.com should have a slight lean to the Texans at kickoff."
The Pick: Texans +3
. Look at the road games Baltimore has played. They lost in Cincinnati, New England, and Atlanta but pulled out wins against Pittsburgh before Roethlisberger's return and in Carolina against the Panthers, which is possibly the worst team in the NFL. What I'm saying is that I don't trust the Ravens on the road, especially against a Texans team that has rested for 11 days now.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3)
Take your pick with this game: Classic letdown after a Monday night, classic letdown after a blowout victory over a hated rival, classic letdown on the road after a big home win, or classic letdown against an opponent no one believes in.
At 9-3, it seems like no one believes in the potential of the Bears. But some of those victories have come against tough opponents, like the Packers and Eagles. The offense has been more consistent in running the ball and the turnovers have been few over the last five weeks.
Then there is the Patriots, coming off a huge 45-3 victory against the Jets Monday night. But I've already laid out the arguments against a Pats win against the spread. It was a huge win against New York at home, and now New England has one less day to prepare and travel to Chicago to play a team that people are underestimating. Snow is in the forecast, but that won't stop Tom Brady and the Patriots, who destroyed the Titans last season in a blizzard.
Bessire's Take
: "Weather could be a serious concern here. We're watching this game closely. While both teams prefer to pass, they are also fairly well suited to play in cold, wind and/or snowstorm. That being said, the weather event alone could/should keep this game close throughout -- it already looked like a pretty close game by the numbers. As an aside, don't believe anyone who tells you that the Patriots have the worst pass defense in the NFL. That person is likely looking at the Patriots aggregate passing yards allowed, which is an inefficient way to measure team's success. The Patriots get ahead. Teams pass. Boom. That being said, the Bears still have the advantage in both matchups of the passing game. According to our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, New England ranks third in the NFL in passing, but Chicago ranks first against the pass. The Bears rank ninth in passing. New England is still not great, ranking 21st against the pass. We expect the Patriots to win, but just slightly more often than not (55.4% of the time) and that's enough to give us a mild lean towards Chicago against a 3-point line. With a high likelihood of a push in this close game, a push as a safety net on that pick is acceptable."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Pats have one less day to prepare after the whipping they gave to the Jets and the smart money doesn't seem to mind. The Pat opened a 2.5-point favorite and that was quickly pushed to 3 by the wise guys and the public. Shoppers and arbitrage players will see 3.5 however it should close 3 with a big lean to New England."
The Pick: Bears +3
. The public is going to love New England after that big Monday Night win against the Jets. Don't get me wrong. I love the Patriots. They're my rooting interest. But the Chicago defense is great at stopping running backs. With high winds and snow in the forecast, it's going to come down to the running games. Chicago may not win, but it feels like a 23-21 game.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston
.
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.
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