Against the Spread: 2010 NFL Picks: Week 10
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Am I crazy, or have oddsmakers set the spreads in NFL games really low this season?
I examined
through nine weeks of this NFL season, and only nine games had a line of 10 points or higher. Six of those double-digit spread games came in the first four weeks of the season. Through nine weeks in 2009, 27 games had spreads in the double digits. Maybe I'm not so crazy after all.
So why, then, haven't lines been higher this year when compared to last year? The logical answer is parity.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady |
"There is definitely parity, and that comes through in the fact that there aren't a whole lot of big lines," say Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site
. The Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down matchups as it simulates each game 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.
Bessire notes that in Week 10, there is only one line above seven points right now, as the
New York Giants
are laying 14 points to the
Dallas Cowboys
, who fired Coach Wade Phillips this week. By comparison, four games in Week 10 of the 2009 season had spreads above 10 points. While the matchups are certainly different week to week and year to year, the other explanation is how balanced many NFL teams are this year compared to years past.
"The spread right now has more to do with parity," Bessire says. "Week in and week out, we saw several big lines over the last several years. In 2007, the Patriots were consistently favored by double digits while some of the NFL's worst teams, like Detroit and St. Louis, were consistently underdogs by double digits."
There may be some truth to the notion that the NFL doesn't have those really elite teams or those really bad teams. Bessire says the Giants are the most balanced and should be a double-digit favorite whenever they play at home. On the other hand, an 0-8 team like the
Buffalo Bills
is
giving
three points at home this week to the Detroit Lions.
It has been harder to gauge which teams to bet on with the lower spreads. One game that I had waffled on last week and elected not to include in my weekly column was the one between the
Cleveland Browns
as the underdog at home and the
New England Patriots
.
At the start of the season, it wouldn't have been outrageous to think this Week 9 game would be a double-digit spread. Ultimately, though, the spread was only 4.5 points and I reluctantly picked the Browns in TheStreet's Yahoo! Pick 'Em pool. Cleveland didn't just cover the spread; they shellacked Tom Brady and a Patriots team on a five-game winning streak.
It's a shame I didn't include that pick. Instead, my record after nine weeks is 25-20, as I went 2-3 in my against-the-spread picks last week. My losing picks of the
Kansas City Chiefs
and the
Philadelphia Eagles
nearly won until late-game scores by the
Oakland Raiders
and the
Indianapolis Colts
.
Without further ado, it's on to my picks for the slate of games in Week 10. Once again, these are for entertainment purposes only. And as always, I've enlisted the help of
Paul Bessire.
I've also collected commentary on each game from
Bookmaker.com CEO Mickey Richardson
. His analysis focuses on the spread movement by his oddsmakers and a look at where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These are necessary tools for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value based on betting trends.
Read on for the first game preview, the Thursday night meeting between the
Baltimore Ravens
and the
Atlanta Falcons
.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Week 10 marks the return of the NFL's Thursday night games. For bettors, these games can be difficult to assess because of the extremely short turnaround teams have after playing just four days prior. Common sense would dictate that the road team is more likely to lose these Thursday night games due to having to rest and recover from a Sunday game, practice and then quickly head out on the road in such a short time.
Prompted by a comment made on
ESPN's
Bill Simmons' podcast, I looked at the won/loss record of home teams on Thursday games over the last two seasons from Week 10 on. The good news for Baltimore is that the common sense hypothesis doesn't hold water. Home teams in Thursday games went 4-5 last season and 5-4 in 2008. In other words, road teams with the quick turnaround don't appear to be at a distinct disadvantage during these Thursday games.
That said, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (pictured above) hasn't lost a home game in Atlanta since Nov. 16, 2008. With the spread at only 1 point, Vegas oddsmakers are essentially saying bettors need to select the team who can win this game outright. That makes a lot of sense, given that the Falcons and Ravens aren't built to blow out opponents. The Falcons have played close games, with the exception of a 41-7 win at home against the Cardinals in Week 2. The Ravens, meanwhile, trounced the Broncos and Dolphins at home but every other game they've played has been decided by a touchdown or less.
Bessire's Take
: "As the Ravens proved in an impressive, dominating performance against the Miami Dolphins last week, they are one of the best teams in the NFL right now. Not only is Atlanta the inferior team, the Falcons are generally overrated. Despite a 6-2 record, the Falcons rank 11th in our most recent power rankings. Baltimore may not have any eye-popping stats -- especially on defense, where the team is not quite its intimidating self -- but the Ravens win with balance, by not hurting themselves. They have also played the sixth toughest schedule in the league and have only lost two close games. Atlanta has the same record, yet against the 15th toughest schedule in the league. The Falcons rushing attack, led by Michael Turner, is the only matchup other than home-field where Atlanta has the advantage. At this point, we assume that he will play and be at full strength, but the fact that star wide receiver Roddy White is banged up can't hurt the likelihood of our upset pick."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Bookmaker.com opened this Thursday night event with the hometown team Atlanta as a 1-point favorite. So far, the head count is on the Ravens. However, the majority of the money is on the Falcons. It is more predictable to see this number go to 2 rather than down to a pick."
The Pick: Ravens +1
. Vegas is beseeching bettors to take the Falcons with that one-point line, which is why it could move higher into the weekend. And according to my numbers show, the Falcons
should
win by six points, thanks to a better turnover differential (+7 to +1 for the Ravens) and home-field advantage. But as the data show, home-field advantage doesn't necessarily exist during these Thursday games. And the Ravens have stopped turning the ball over, which was a problem for the team in the first few weeks. Baltimore's defense is heating up too, forcing nine turnovers in the last three games alone. This all could lead to Matt Ryan's first home loss in two years.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)
The first thing that pops to mind when looking at this spread is that Vegas is really down on the Texans.
That view is justifiable, as Houston has lost two straight games after having Week 7 off. The schedule doesn't get easier for the Texans, either, as the team will play five of its final eight games on the road. That means that, with a record of 4-4 through five home games and three road games, the Texans are underachieving. The team's offense has had two of its worst performances in the last two weeks, based on the yards-per-play metric. More broadly, the Texans have a point differential of -33 and a turnover margin of -2. Those numbers are not particularly inspiring for a team that beat the Colts, Chiefs and Redskins this season.
The Jaguars have an identical win/loss record of 4-4 and were off last week after pummeling the Cowboys in Dallas during Week 8. To a casual observer, the Jags look like they should be able to put up a fight at home. But the team's numbers aren't particularly inspiring, either. Jacksonville loses when its running backs, including Maurice Jones-Drew (pictured above), rush for 130 yards or less in a game. The offense turns the ball over often. Stripping out the four forced turnovers on defense against the hapless Cowboys last week, the Jags have a turnover differential of -11. The team has a point differential of -61, remarkably worse than the -33 of the Texans. The Jags also have difficulty stopping the rushing attack of good teams, losing to the Titans, Chargers and Chiefs in giving up more than 150 rushing yards in each of those games.
Bessire's Take
: "To me, this line appears to be too reliant on recent performances. In the last two weeks, Houston has been schooled by the banged-up Colts in Indianapolis and beaten late in a shootout at home against the Chargers. In the same time period, the Jaguars destroyed the Cowboys and then had a bye week. The problem is that the Texans ran into better football teams that were perfectly built to exploit Houston's weaknesses. Jacksonville beat a bad Cowboys team that gave up in that game. In this matchup, Houston is the better team and has the weapons to exploit Jacksonville's weaknesses. We have talked at length about how bad the Texans' secondary is and how that will keep them from making a serious playoff push. Well, the only worse team against the pass this season has been the Jacksonville Jaguars. And while David Garrard should put up some big fantasy points against the Texans, Houston's offensive passing game is significantly better than Jacksonville's. As is the Texans' running game and its ability to defend the run. Advantage Houston across the board, save for home field."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Houston Texans were made a 1-point road favorite by the Bookmaker.com odds makers and the sharps pounded the home team until the favorite changed to the Jags as a 1.5-point favorite. This number has the potential to close Jags as a 3-point favorite. However, it's more likely to close 2 to 2.5."
The Pick: Texans +2
: After this game, the Texans travel to New York to play the Jets, come home against the Titans, go to Philadelphia, and then come back home to play the Ravens. This game against the Jags, while on the road, may be one of few opportunities for the team to notch a win. I expect Arian Foster to rush the ball quite a bit in an upset victory for Houston.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Was the Patriots' loss to the Browns last week truly an aberration, or is this New England team not as good as the betting public perceived?
The Patriots are on the road for the second straight week against another AFC North opponent in the Steelers. The team comes off an embarrassing loss, having allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards against the defensive unit. Quarterback Tom Brady hasn't done much of note in the last several games. In fact, Brady has only thrown for an average of 215 yards per game this season. Now, Brady has to deal with the pass rush of the Pittsburgh Steelers, which has been solid against the run and pass.
The argument could be made that the Steelers aren't much better on offense with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back under center. Pittsburgh's defense is still performing well, allowing fewer than 300 total yards per game through Week 9, but the offense is a different story. The Steelers turned the ball over five times on offense through the first four games this season without Roethlisberger, compared to seven turnovers in the games with Big Ben. Backup Charlie Batch had the same win/loss record and the same amount of interceptions as Roethlisberger in the same number of games against arguably tougher opponents in the Ravens, Falcons, Titans and Bucs.
Bessire's Take
: "I think the general public is finally starting to realize that the Patriots defense, especially against the pass, is not very good. This line opened essentially favoring Pittsburgh due to home-field advantage, but that number has crept up to 4.5, which is rare in general, let alone to move in the direction of a team on a short week. The line still has not moved far enough. The Steelers have a tremendous matchup advantage in this game: Their offense against the Patriots' defense. Pittsburgh has played the second-toughest schedule of any team to date, yet ranks second in our passing offense metrics and 14th running the ball. New England has played the 12th toughest schedule of any team in 2010 and ranks 28th against the pass and 18th against the run. Since the Patriots offense against the Steelers defense is essentially a wash, look for the Steelers to put up big offensive numbers in winning this game by a touchdown or more."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "The Sunday night event could not ask for a better matchup with both teams having a huge national following. The Steelers opened as a 4-point favorite and have settled at 5 points in the middle of the week. Don't be fooled the money came early on Pittsburgh; 5 points is a dead number and the book is trying to take advantage of the public. Bookmaker.com expects to close this game with Pittsburgh at a 4-point advantage."
The Pick: Steelers -4.5
: I hate picking against my personal rooting interest twice in as many weeks, but you have to make bets with your mind, not your heart. Brady has thrown four interceptions all season, but they all came during games against the Jets and Ravens, which many say have defenses that are on par with the Steelers.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Like the Texans, the Carolina Panthers play five of their remaining eight games on the road, starting this week against division rivals the Bucs. In the previous three years, the Panthers are 2-1 against the Bucs when playing in Tampa Bay, but both of these teams are radically different this year.
On one hand, the 1-7 Panthers are relying on a second-round draft pick to play quarterback, now that Matt Moore is done for the season due to injuries. Jimmy Clausen hasn't done well in his short time in the quarterback position, throwing one touchdown and four interceptions. This will be Clausen's second road game, the other being a loss to the Saints in New Orleans when he threw for 146 yards. As a team the Panthers rank as the worst passing team in the NFL and among the worst rushing teams. Of the few positives for the team, Carolina is among the best in allowing the fewest passing yards to opponents.
All of that bodes well for the Bucs, who are looking to bounce back after a near-win against the Falcons in Week 9. Tampa's defense eats up weak quarterbacks, forcing three or more turnovers in games this season against the Browns, Bengals, Cardinals and these same Panthers. Despite the relatively good stats for the Panthers defense against the pass, Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman had his second highest quarterback rating of 102.4 come earlier this year against Carolina.
Bessire's Take
: "The Carolina offense is terrible. Tampa Bay may be able to score one touchdown and still cover in this game. I would guess that when the season started, Carolina did not expect that they would be taking on a 5-3 Tampa Bay team, which already won by double-digits in Carolina, with Jimmy Clausen, Mike Goodson and David Gettis as critical offensive players. Each of those players has shown some flashes of ability, but none should be starting in the NFL right now. It's that simple."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Tampa Bay opened as a 7.5-point favorite and the wise guys disagreed, pushing the spread past the key number of 7. Currently, the spread is 6.5 but it is likely to close at 6 with Bookmaker.com seeing lopsided volume on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is also a heavy teaser side this week."
The Pick: Buccaneers -6.5
. The Bucs won in Carolina earlier this year by a 20-7 score. They should easily be able to replicate that result this week at home against a Carolina team that looks even worse than it did during the Week 2 contest.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3)
It's difficult to fully embrace Michael Vick considering his troubled past with dog fighting. While that still remains in the back of my mind, I absolutely love watching Vick play football, especially after his dominant performance against the Colts last week.
Vick has yet to throw an interception this year, although that could change against a Redskins defense that has at least one turnover in every game this year. Even still, Vick has to have revenge on his mind after the Redskins defense gave him the rib injury in Week 4 that kept him out of three consecutive games. In his short playing time during that first game against the Redskins, Vick had a 90.8 quarterback rating after completing five of seven attempts for 49 yards while rushing for another 17 yards.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are in disarray. Coach Mike Shanahan benched quarterback Donovan McNabb late in a Week 8 loss to the Detroit Lions, claiming McNabb was unfit to run the two-minute offense for a comeback win. Instead, Shanahan elected to put Rex Grossman (pictured above) in the game, who promptly fumbled the ball on his first play to allow a Lions defensive touchdown. Quarterback controversy aside, Washington has been good on defense with a turnover margin of +8. But little else about the team is remarkable from a statistical perspective.
Bessire's Take
: "We loved the Eagles at home -6 against Washington earlier this season. A couple of big plays by the Redskins and a Michael Vick injury and that never came true. Well, we still love the Eagles now. The confidence may not be as high against the three-point line on the road, but Philadelphia is just such a better team. And we assume Donovan McNabb will be playing the entire game. If he doesn't, for whatever reason, and Rex Grossman has to fill in, that could only help our case. Philadelphia has played the ninth toughest schedule in the NFL this season and ranks as the league's best rushing team (with Michael Vick starting), its sixth best passing team, the fifth best team against the pass and the tenth best team against the run. Washington is playing at home, and that's about where the positives end. The Redskins have faced the 20th toughest schedule and rank 17th in passing, 18th running (with all running backs healthy), 18th against the pass and 29th against the run. It's not even close. Look for Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy to put up big numbers and for Mike Shanahan to have to answer a ton of uncomfortable questions after the game."
Bookmaker.com Take
: "Philly opened as a 3-point flat favorite and the handicappers tried to push the Bookmaker.com odds makers off the most consistent point spread number in the NFL. This Monday Night event should bring in the volume with McNabb and Vick. However, it is doubtful the oddsmakers will move away from the original 3-point spread."
The Pick: Eagles -3
. Washington has won its only other two division games this year, which came against the Cowboys in Week 1 before many realized how weak Dallas would play. The other victory came against the Eagles after Vick was injured. I won't expect the same result this time around. It's tough taking a team laying three points on the road after a big home win, especially against a team that had a week off to regroup. But the Eagles look legit, and I can't wait to see Michael Vick running plays Monday night.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston
.
>To contact the writer of this article, click here:
Robert Holmes
.
>To follow Robert Holmes on Twitter, go to
http://twitter.com/RobTheStreet
.
>To submit a news tip, send an email to:
.
Disclosure: TheStreet's editorial policy prohibits staff editors, reporters and analysts from holding positions in any individual stocks.
