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Trifecta Stocks

Trifecta Stocks Weekly Roundup

By Chris Versace and Bob Lang | 09/23/16 - 05:10 PM EDT

If we simply looked at the 1.2% move higher clocked in by the S&P 500 this week, one would think the market was all hunky dory. Certainly it was this past week, primarily due to the Federal Reserve leaving monetary policy unchanged for at least several more months. Despite the growing number of signs in recent weeks that this was the likely course to be taken by the Fed, the market still welcomed the news with open arms, overlooking the fact the Fed once again trimmed back its 2016 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.0% in July and 2.2% in March.

That slowing velocity was affirmed not only in some of the housing data we received this week, but also in the rash of Flash September PMI data from Markit Economics that once again painted the picture of a slowing global economy. Outside of the official stats, Chris shared some of the other indicators he's been watching when it comes to the speed of the domestic economy, such as weekly rail traffic, when he shared his quick take on the Fed's no-go decision earlier this week.

Over the last few weeks, we've been talking about the disconnect between the slowing speed of the economy and earnings expectations not so much for the current quarter, which are slated to be down yet again, but for the upcoming December quarter. We touched on this in last week's Roundup, and it's safe to say that little has changed for the better over the last few days. While the Fed cut its outlook, other forecasts like those from FedEx (FDX:NYSE) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development offer a more somber view of the domestic economy. As such, with just a handful of days left in the September and 3Q 2016, we'll be on the lookout for any and all negative earnings pre-announcement, and what they may mean for any of our holdings. Despite the move in the market this week, the S&P 500 is tracking to still be down roughly 0.6% for December.

From a portfolio perspective, we had a number of strong performers this week including International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF:NYSE), United Parcel Service (UPS:NYSE), Sherwin-Williams (SHW:NYSE), Alphabet (GOOGL:Nasdaq) and MasterCard (MA:NYSE), all of which outperformed the major market indices. Over the last few weeks, we've been scaling into several positions and we did so once again this week when we added to our Disney (DIS:NYSE) position following an upbeat presentation made by Chairman and CEO Bob Iger that confirmed our underlying thesis on the shares. The only real disappointment in the portfolio this week was with our inverse ETF positions, which given the market move, gave back some of the ground they gained in September. With nearly every other position higher this week, we'll take it.

Next week we have earnings from athletic apparel and footwear giant Nike (NKE:NYSE) after Monday's close. We have more details on what's expected and what we're looking for in the company section below, but we see today's better-than-expected quarterly revenue from Finish Line (FINL:Nasdaq) as favorable for Nike's U.S. business.

On the economic docket, more August data are coming, including Durable Orders and Personal Income & Spending, as well as the third estimate of 2Q 2016 GDP. Given the August Industrial Production reading as well as today's Flash US September Manufacturing PMI from Market Economics that showed another step down in manufacturing order activity, odds are the pending Personal Income & Spending report will carry greater weight as investors get a bead on the consumer ahead of year-end holiday shopping.

Enjoy your weekend, and we'll be here next week to break it all down for you.

As a reminder, Ones are stocks we would buy right now, Twos are stocks that we'd buy on a pullback, Threes are stocks we would sell on strength and Fours are stocks we want to unload as soon as our trading restrictions allow. (The information in parenthesis at the start of each company rundown contains the company's stock symbol, the stock's most recent closing price and its percentage weighting in the model portfolio. For up-to-date information about the model portfolio, click here.)

As a reminder, Ones are stocks we would buy right now, Twos are stocks that we'd buy on a pullback, Threes are stocks we would sell on strength and Fours are stocks we want to unload as soon as our trading restrictions allow. (The information in parenthesis at the start of each company rundown contains the company's stock symbol, the stock's most recent closing price and its percentage weighting in the model portfolio. For up-to-date information about the model portfolio, click here.)

ONES

Costco Wholesale (COST:Nasdaq, $152.53, 5.84%): Costco shares rebounded just under 0.5% this week following bullish comments from Deutsche Bank about the company's relative outperformance compared to the overall retail sector. We always love it, when others come around to our way of thinking and support our core thesis. Next week brings August Personal Income & Spending, which will offer another view on consumer spending appetites. We continue to see COST gaining share in the shopping-heavy second half of the year, with benefits to be had from co-branded Costco card marketing; any membership price increase in the coming months would bode well for margins in 2017. Based on the upside to be had to our $170 price target, we continue to have a One rating on the shares. Initial and current Street Quant Ratings: A-.

CVS Health (CVS:NYSE, $90.60, 4.94%): Last week CVS shares exited the week oversold, but they found some footing this week climbing just under 1%. Amid fresh data that points to the domestic economy being much slower than expected a few months back, investors are likely flocking to the shares given the favorable demographic behind the core business and strength in Health and Personal Care retail sales. Given the push out in any Fed rate hike until at least September investors also like CVS's policy on increasing dividends. Speaking of dividends, this week CVS declared its next quarterly dividend of $0.425 per share that will be payable on Nov. 3 to shareholders of record on Oct. 24. We continue to like the favorable demographic tailwind at the company's back as well as continued synergies to be had with the integration of Target Pharmacies and other acquired businesses. As we have been saying, the crux of the investment story near term will be the company's ability to deliver margin growth in the back half of 2016 as well as earnings growth. As it continues to deliver or beat expectations, we should see expansion of its multiple take hold. While the next major catalyst will be September quarter earnings in October, the event that is likely to have far more influence on CVS shares longer term is the company's December analyst day. This will be the company's next major update to its long guidance, which currently calls for growth in earnings per share of 10% to 14%. At that meeting we also expect an update on acquisition integration and expected synergies that are forecast to drive margin improvement in 2017. Our price target remains $120. Initial and current Street Quant Ratings: A-

Walt Disney (DIS:NYSE, $9.27, 5.58%): After several catalyst-free weeks, Disney shares rose roughly 1% this week following the presentation of Chairman and CEO Bob Iger at the Goldman Sachs Cornucopia Conference. This morning we added to the Trifecta position and in the note to subscribers we walked through a number of thesis-confirming statements made during that presentation -- if you missed that note, you can find it here. Exiting the week, DIS shares are trading at 15.3x expected 2017 earnings of $6.09 per share, well below its three- and five-year average multiples between 19x and 20x. Before too long, though, we expect Fat Brain Toys, Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq), Toys R Us and others will have their "Hot Christmas Toys" lists for 2016, and we once again expect Disney's merchandising arm to be well-represented. Also too, new films from Disney -- Marvel's Dr. Strange, Disney Animation's Moana, and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story -- will start to hit screens in several weeks. We are inclined to be patient with Disney as we see it as the Content Is King company, with its international efforts propelled by rising disposable incomes and a brand-conscious rising middle class. We continue to see Disney making the right investments (streaming media and turning studio content into park rides and attractions) to drive revenue and profits. Our price target on DIS shares remains $115. Initial and current Street Quant Ratings: A-.

Alphabet (GOOGL:NYSE, $814.96, 4.64%): Our GOOGL shares rose more than 2% this past week adding to the upward move they've enjoyed thus far in September. There were a number of positives to be had during the week for GOOGL shares including a profile on CFO Ruth Porat in Fortune magazine that called out Porat's push for greater cost control on "creatives" in order to bring costs closer in line with revenue. Having seen the benefit of similar efforts on margins at Amazon, we applaud the initiative. Through Google Capital, Alphabet invested in Airbnb's latest financing round, and given the strategic nature of Google Capital investments, the odds of a closer affiliation between the two companies is rather high. Finally, Alphabet set an Oct. 4 event data at which it is expected to unveil new hardware, including smartphone models as well as its answer to Amazon's Echo digital assistant, a new Android powered virtual reality platform and a new messaging app to compete with Apple's (AAPL:Nasdaq) iMessage and Facebook's (FB:Nasdaq) Messenger and What's App apps. The company still has time remaining to respond to EU charges that Google was "harming consumers because of its demand that smartphone makers must pre-install Google Search and the Google Chrome browser on their devices to access other Google apps." If found guilty Google can be fined up to $7.4 billion, roughly 10% percent of its global sales -- not a major concern given the $78.5 billion in cash and short-term investments on the company's balance sheet at the end of June. We continue to favor GOOGL shares given it's poised to benefit from the continued shift in lifestyle to digital from analog around the globe that includes search, shopping and video consumption. GOOGL is rated a One with a $900 price target. Initial Street Quant Rating: A-

MasterCard (MA:NYSE, $101.66, 4.41%): On the heels of an upbeat analyst meeting last week that featured better than expected top-line commentary, MasterCard shares are up another 0.7% this week. Month to date, MasterCard shares have been one of the stronger performers due in part to its recent upbeat analyst meeting. While we continue to see the company benefitting from the accelerating shift toward digital shopping and cashless consumption in the short-term as well as longer-term opportunities associated with China opening up to outside payment processing vendors, MA share just over 8% from our $110 price target. In coming days, we'll reevaluate the price target for any and all upside potential. The upward move in earnings expectations over the last month could lead to at least a modest bump higher in our target price. We continue to like MA's longer-term prospects given that just 15% of global payments are occurring digitally and another $8 trillion can be converted to digital payments over the next five years. We continue to rate MA shares a One and for now our price target remains $110. Initial Street Quant Rating: A+; current rating: A-.

ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH:NYSE, $38.14, 2.79%): Shares of this inverse ETF for the S&P 500 gave back some of the ground they gained earlier in September given the market rally. Month to date, however, the position is relatively unchanged. Given several concerns -- slowing economy, overly robust December quarter earnings expectations, and potential for more companies to reset guidance in the coming weeks -- we will continue to hold SH shares during what has historically been one of the worst-performing months for the stock market. Our rating remains a One. The Street Quant Rating on SH shares is D-, which easily fits with the mandate that inverse ETFs and shorts have a quant rating below C+.

ProShares Short Dow30 ETF (DOG:NYSE, $20.79, 2.81%): Much like SH shares, DOG shares retreated this week, but on a month-to-date basis the shares closed the week up roughly 0.5%. As with our SH shares, we will continue to keep our DOG position intact over the coming weeks to help hedge the portfolio and limit losses in a more volatile market that is likely as we close the quarter and brace for any negative earnings pre-announcements ahead of September quarter earnings. DOG shares have a Street Rating of D; that's well below a C rating, which meets our investment criteria for inverse ETFs. Our price target for DOG shares is $25.

ProShares Short Russell2000 ETF (RWM:NYSE; $53.70; 2.62%): RWM is an inverse ETF for the small-cap-heavy Russell 2000 Index (IWM:NYSE) and was hands down the worst performer in the portfolio this week, falling roughly 3%. That reflects the strong rebound following the Fed's no-go announcement in the Russell 2000. Keeping in with our comments, however, on both SH and DOG shares, we will continue to hold our RWM shares over the coming weeks. RMW shares have a Street Quant Rating of D; that's well below a C rating, which means its inverse nature meets our investment criteria. Our price target for RWM shares is $67.

Sherwin-Williams (SHW:NYSE, $283.00, 5.51%). Shares of this paint and coating company rose roughly 3% this week, handily beating all the major market indices, leaving the shares down modestly month to date. While the headline housing data this week -- August Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales -- suggested the housing market is likely sputtering vs. July, we'd note that August Existing Sales rose year over year and the number of homes under construction in August was up more than 13% year over year. If you missed our note on the latter, you can find it here. Over the last few weeks, we've built out the Trifecta position in SHW and we will look to so more opportunistically given the current position size vs. the robust outlook for repair & remodel spending over the coming quarters. As we continue to watch repair-and-remodel data, both economic and industry wide, we'll keep an eye on key raw material costs, such as titanium dioxide (TiO2). Our price target remains $350, which is in line with prior peak multiples. Initial and current Street Quant Ratings: A+

Whirlpool (WHR:NYSE, $162.17, 4.27%): Shares of this leading appliance manufacture were relatively unchanged this past week, a noticeable change of pace from the drubbing the shares took earlier this month. The same housing as well as repair & remodel-related comments we made above for Sherwin Williams stand for Whirlpool. As such, we will continue to be patient with the shares and look to round out the position size further in the coming weeks. Exiting the week, WHR shares have climbed ever so slightly from oversold territory, but remain far enough away from the $150 technical level that would have us re-think the position. Our fundamental thesis, much like that for Sherwin Williams, rests on the outlook for repair and remodel spending in the back half of 2016 and the next few years in the developed markets while the emerging markets continue to increase the number of appliances per home. There are a number of factors to like about Whirlpool given its leading appliance industry position, wide product portfolio and its knack for increasing its annual dividend, not to mention the current valuation relative to its long-term earnings target. WHR shares are rated a One and our price target is $232. Initial Street Quant Rating: A-

TWOS

AT&T (T:NYSE, $41.28, 3.03%): Earlier this month AT&T shares were well off their mid-August high and as the shares flirted with $40 we added to the position. This week the shares climbed just under 3%, which we attribute to the on-again search for yield and predictable as well as inelastic business models as the reality of the slower than expected economy hits. Also helping the shares and their 4.7% dividend yield was the as-expected push out in Fed rate-hike timing. During the week, AT&T management gave an upbeat presentation at the Goldman Sachs Cornucopia Conference and shared that it plans to have Web streaming as its primary TV platform by 2020. In our view this shores up the company's competitive position against Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) and Verizon Communications (VZ:NYSE). Given confidence to its streaming initiative, AT&T added Starz (STRZA:Nasdaq) and Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI:NYSE), the TV home of HGTV, Food Network, DIY, Cooking Channel, Travel Channel and more, to its growing number of content deals. AT&T also took an equity stake in Starz partners Lions Gate Entertainment (LFG:NYSE). DirecTV Now launches in Q4 with more than 100 channels and what AT&T chief Randall Stephenson calls a "very, very aggressive price point" and data-cap exemptions for AT&T wireless subscribers. We remain far more focused on its next generation technologies and strategies to expand on its DirecTV offering as consumers increasingly chew more and more mobile data. We will look to add further to the position, counting our dividends as we do so. Our price target on the shares remains $44. Initial Street Quant Rating: A; current rating: A+

Foot Locker (FL:NYSE, $67.07, 4.92%): This retailer of shoes and apparel operates in two segments: Athletic Stores and Direct to Customers. The Athletic Stores unit operates more than 3,400 stores in 23 countries. FL shares rose just under 2% this week. We continue to see FL shares benefiting from the company's relationship with Nike (NKE:NYSE) and Under Armour (UA:NYSE) as well as the rebound that is underway with Adidas and Puma brands. By carrying some of the top brands and models across vendors, Foot Locker is positioned to pick up incremental share following the bankruptcies of Sports Authority, Sports Chalet and others catering to consumer athletic wear needs. This morning's better-than-expected quarterly revenue at Finish Line (FINL:Nasdaq) is the latest confirming data point on the continued strength in the athletic footwear and apparel market. One of Foot Locker's internal strategies is remodeling its stores, which is improving the look and feel as well as calling attention to key brands and models. We continue to like the expanding relationship with Under Armour, which appears to be gaining market share in athletic shoes. Next week, key partner Nike will issues its quarterly results after Monday's close and we expect the results will be a boost for FL shares. Our price target remains $70 for now, and subscribers who are underweight FL shares should look to add to the position closer to $64. Initial Street Quant Ratings: A-; current rating: B.

International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF:NYSE, $141.91, 4.13%): IFF shares were one of the best performers this week climbing nearly 4%. We chalk part of that to investor appetite looking for safer haven stocks with an increasing dividend policy, but also the continued prospects for growth in IFF's flavor and fragrances business. As a reminder, the Freedonia Group forecasts global demand for flavors and fragrances to reach $26.3 billion by 2020, which would be up 21% from $21.7 billion in 2015. We continue to see IFF's business benefiting from the emerging middle class in developing markets as well as from product introductions and demand for its premium fragrances. We will continue to add to the position opportunistically to improve our costs basis and capture more of the company's increasing dividend policy. Speaking of dividends, IFF will pay its next dividend of $0.64 per share on Oct. 6. Also in early October we will look for flavor & fragrance competitor Givaudan AG's monthly sales report, which should help pinpoint its revenue growth for the September quarter and offer some perspective on IFF's September quarter revenue. We continue to rate IFF shares a Two at current levels and our price target remains $145. Initial Street Quant Rating: A

Nike (NKE:NYSE, $55.15, 2.86%): Over the last week, Nike shares were little changed despite bullish results from retail partner Finish Line (FINL: Nasdaq) earlier today. What this tells us is investors are waiting for Nike's own quarterly results that will come after Monday's (Sept. 26) market close. Expectations have the company earning $0.56 per share on revenue of $8.88 billion for the August quarter and guiding EPS in the range of $0.48 to $0.55 on revenue of $8.19 billion to $8.47 billion. Favorable comments over the last several weeks from Dick's Sporting Goods, Foot Locker and Finish Line point to a solid domestic demand for Nike's products and very good demand in Asia, it's two largest operating profit generators on a geographic basis. In the company's results and subsequent conference call, we'll be looking to see how it is fending off Adidas, Puma and Under Armour (UA:NYSE), all of which appear to be gaining share in Europe. The one wildcard to watch in Nike's quarterly results will be its Direct 2 Consumer business, which has thrown a wrench in many naysayer views over the last few quarters. When we initiated the position with a Two rating, we noted we would be inclined to scoop up more shares closer to $55. Clearly the shares have "come to us" over the last few weeks, and we are putting pen and pencil to paper to revisit the stock's technicals as we chart our next move. Our long-term price target remains $67. Initial and Current Street Quant Rating: B+.

PetMed Express (PETS:Nasdaq, $20.79, 4.57%): Shares of this online pet pharmacy company were one of the stronger performers this week climbing more roughly 1.5%. Aside for the ongoing shift to digital commerce that is benefitting PetMed's business, the enviable dividend of 3.65% has likely caught the eye of many investors looking for yield and safer havens given more data on the slowing nature of the domestic economy paired with the push out in any Fed rate hike. We recently added to the position size, which now sits over 4% of the overall portfolio. We'd be more inclined to add to the position further closer to $20. Our price target on PETS shares remains $23. Initial Street Quant Ratings: A-; current rating: A

United Parcel Service (UPS:NYSE, $109.21 5.49%): On the back of better than expected quarterly results this week at competitor FedEx (FDX:NYSE), which served to confirm both our thesis on UPS shares and favorable retail sales data for the accelerating shift to digital commerce, our UPS shares rose just under 3% this week. That move in the shares has led to a rebound that has reversed the majority of the move in the shares earlier in September. Ahead of the company's September quarter earnings, we await the National Retail Federation's take on year-end holiday spending, including the break down between brick & mortar and digital spending. UPS has already shared it expects to hire about 95,000 seasonal employees to support the anticipated increase in package volume that will begin in November and continue through January 2017. While we wait for the NRF's holiday outlook, yesterday the NRF shared that it expects total spending for Halloween to reach $8.4 billion, an all-time high in the survey's 11-year history with the average U.S. consumers are expected to spend an average of $82.93, up from last year's $74.34. We suspect more than a fair amount of costumes and related items will be bought online. Recently, RetailNext expects digital sales will climb to 16% of total retail sales this holiday season, up from 14.4% last year. We expect other such forecasts will echo this shift. We continue to rate UPS share a Two with a $122 price target. Initial Street Quant Rating: B; current rating: A

Don't Get Sucker-Punched by the Negative Tone

When there is little volatility in markets, it is perceived as boring and uninteresting so the business news channels switch to the irrelevant political follies. But with a pickup in volatility as we had when the market was pasted on Sept. 9, the "end of the world" talk begins. Truly, bipolar sentiment is the order of the day.

Did you watch some of the biggest fund managers chatting it up recently at CNBC's Delivering Alpha conference? The smartest minds in markets and trading were interviewed and they espoused their opinions of markets. Not one cared for the markets at this time, and most were painting a dark picture of the post-election future.

We heard similar opinions in July before the market went on an enormous run: Soros is short futures, Icahn and Tepper are cautious, Bill Gross hates all markets. For the record, the stock market is higher since these views were offered.

Sentiment can quickly change when there is less certainty, and as it relates to Fed policy -- the driver of liquidity and stock market moves -- there is little visibility. When this happens, we tend to gravitate to those who "know," but this may be a tragic mistake. These so-called experts who made a name investing in a very different world can talk their book all they want, influencing the audience to see their point of view.

Is it right or wrong? Truth or fallacy? I don't know, but I can tell you this much: The market will tell us the right answer about how to proceed, regardless of the overtones. The market action is what I listen to, not the managers trotted out by the media to talk their book.

Regards,

Chris Versace & Bob Lang
Co-Portfolio Managers, Trifecta Stocks

Finish Line's Beat is Good News for FL, NKE
Stocks in Focus: FL, NKE

Our Foot Locker and Nike positions will benefit from Finish Line's strong report today.

09/23/16 - 09:15 AM EDT
Bearish Bets: An Oil Giant, an Industrial and Other Stocks That Look Good Short
Stocks in Focus: VMI, VNO, BAM, RLJ, SNP

VMI, VNO, BAM, RLJ and SNP were all recently downgraded by TheStreet’s Quant Ratings.

09/23/16 - 09:00 AM EDT
Our Rationale for Adding to Disney
Stocks in Focus: DIS

Iger's upbeat comments confirm our investment thesis.

09/23/16 - 08:39 AM EDT
Trifecta Stocks Weekly Roundup

The model portfolio had a number of strong performers this week as the market welcomed the Fed's lack of action with open arms.

09/23/16 - 05:10 PM EDT

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