If you think the decline in the U.S. stock market was bad today, take a look at China's, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Tuesday. For months now, Cramer has cautioned investors that the stock market won't like a trade war. But now that we have one, the next question is, who has the upper hand and who's likely to win?
The fact is the U.S. imports four times as many goods from China than they do from us. That means there are four times as many Chinese jobs at stake if those businesses move elsewhere. Industries like apparel and appliances could relocate pretty quickly, Cramer noted, while it may take more time for electronics and machinery to do the same. But that doesn't mean China couldn't boycott Starbucks (SBUX - Get Report) or ground planes owned by FedEx (FDX - Get Report) in the meantime.
The problem for China is that the country requires U.S. companies to partner with local firms to do business there. That means any action taken against us hurts China as well. Then there's the Chinese stock market, which -- while modeled after U.S. markets -- are not nearly as robust as U.S. markets, thus the 10% slide in today's session.
With the U.S. economy strong and able to absorb some initial blows, Cramer concluded that it's the U.S. that has the upper hand. It's clear they need us more than we need them, he said, despite what the skeptics claim. The only question is, how long will it take to reconcile our differences?
Over on Real Money, Cramer says Trump is betting that China is a paper tiger. Get more of his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
Executive Decision: Carrizo Oil & Gas
Johnson explained that all oil is not priced the same, which is why Carrizo has been shifting assets toward the Eagle Ford shale region, where prices can be $20 per barrel higher than in the Permian Basin. He said the Permian is still ahead of its pipeline capacity, which makes getting oil out of the region difficult. The needed pipelines aren't expected to come online until the third quarter of 2019.
As for the effect of trade wars on the oil market, Johnson said if the Chinese won't buy our oil, Carrizo can sell it to Europe or other places around the globe. It will add inefficiency, he said, but it won't be a dealbreaker. China still needs oil.
Finally, when asked about production prices, Johnson said that Carrizo is able to drill for about half the price of a decade ago, as they have better rigs, better drill bits, better technology and better crews to run it all.
Cramer and the AAP team are adding VMWare (VMW - Get Report) to the bullpen. Find out what they're telling their investment club members and get in on the conversation with a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
Off the Charts
In the "Off The Charts" segment, Cramer checked in with colleague Carolyn Boroden for some longer-term perspectives on a handful of stocks that appear to have bottomed.
Boroden noted that the weekly chart of Tesla (TSLA - Get Report) , showed an average decline of 28 weeks back in April, which is when she first turned bullish. Nearly $108 a share later, she felt there was still more upside present.
Boroden was also bullish on CVS Health (CVS - Get Report) , where the weekly chart showed a bottom near $60 a share, but the Fibonacci ratios indicated $128 a share could be possible after first clearing some resistance. Rival Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA - Get Report) displayed a similar pattern, with $107 a share possible after clearing resistance between $75 and $78 a share.
Finally, Boroden said the weekly chart of Citigroup (C - Get Report) , an Action Alerts PLUS holding, was Laos bullish, with a floor of support near $65, resistance at $72 and a price target of $84 a share.
To look at the charts and read more analysis from Cramer and Boroden, read CVS, Walgreens and Citigroup: Cramer's 'Off the Charts'.
Executive Decision: OptiNose
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down for the first time with Peter Miller, CEO of OptiNose (OPTN , the drugmaker with two products on the market for migraines and nasal polyps. Shares of OptiNose are up 30% for 2018.
Miller explained that nasal polyps are largely misunderstood, with over 10 million patients often opting for surgery as their only remedy. After receiving FDA approval last fall, OptiNose chose to delay their launch until this year to help build awareness, which now stands at 85%, and insurance coverage, which is now 74% of all patients.
One of the keys to the OptiNose system is their patented delivery system. Unlike traditional nasal sprays that only deliver 50% of their dosage, OptiNose is far more effective at getting the drug into nasal passages, despite the body's natural disposition to keep things out of nasal passages.
Cramer said OptiNose has big market opportunities ahead of it.
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer dispelled the myth that America is hostage to China because the Chinese own $1.18 trillion of U.S. Treasuries. He said simply, "That's not how it works."
Even if the Chinese did decide to sell a ton of Treasuries to prop up their stock market, all that would do is send long-term interest rates higher.
What's the major concern in the bond market right now? That the interest rates on long-term Treasuries aren't high enough. If interest rates rise, then the banks would be able to make more money, Cramer explained, and that's a good thing.
Plus, China has been keeping their own currency low by investing in those U.S. Treasuries. If they were to sell, that would only weaken the dollar and strengthen the yuan -- the exact opposite of what you'd want in the middle of a trade war.
Cramer said the whole exercise is self-defeating. There are plenty of things to worry about, but this isn't one of them.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Exelixis (EXEL - Get Report) , Flagstar Bancorp (FBC - Get Report) , PPL Corp (PPL - Get Report) , Box (BOX - Get Report) , Sirius XM Radio (SIRI - Get Report) and MSCI (MSCI - Get Report) .
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