The stock market still isn't out of the woods yet, Jim Cramer warned his Mad Money viewers Thursday. Just because the Federal Reserve has now become a friend to Wall Street, there are still escalating trade tensions that must be dealt with -- especially heading into the G-20 meetings.
That's why Cramer suggested four stocks that have secular growth stories strong enough to overcome even the harshest of tariffs.
Cramer said Dollar Tree's (DLTR - Get Report) acquisition of Family Dollar is only now beginning to pay dividends and that's why he'll be talking to the CEO later in the show. CVS Health (CVS - Get Report) is also benefiting from an acquisition, that of Aetna. Given how beaten down the drugstore stocks have been, Cramer said CVS has lots more room to run.
Cramer was also bullish on McDonald's (MCD - Get Report) , a long-time favorite that continues to turn itself around. He said McDonald's is also the go-to stock for money managers worried about trade and tariffs. Finally, Cramer said that Constellation Brands (STZ - Get Report) remains a favorite, as the company is expertly expanding into cannabis without getting caught int the hype.
Cramer and the AAP team are trimming shares of Textron (TXT - Get Report) in a move that rebuilds their cash position. Find out what they're telling their investment club members and get in on the conversation with a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
Executive Decision: PVH Corp.
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Manny Chirico, chairman and CEO of apparel maker PVH Corp. (PVH - Get Report) , which just posted a seven-cents-a-share earnings beat with solid guidance.
Chirico said PVH just delivered another strong quarter and they continue to see growth ahead for their many brands. He said jeans continue to be a problem area for Calvin Klein, but overall there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the brand and it has great consumer recognition around the globe.
PVH has seen a great start to the fourth quarter, Chirico added, and Tommy Hilfiger is not seeing any slowdowns in the U.S. or in Europe. Sportswear also continues to sell well going into the holiday season.
When asked about the elephant in the room -- tariffs -- Chirico said that PVH is a big company and tariffs could total $70 million. That's only 7% to 8% of their cost of goods sold, he said, and supply chains can be moved, but it will take some time for that to happen. Chirico noted the sad fact is that consumers will be the ones most hurt by tariffs.
Brace For the Economic Data
What exactly did the Federal Reserve see in the economy that led it to change its mind on interest rates? That's what money managers and pundits alike were trying to ascertain today. Was it the tariffs set to rise from 10% to 25% in January? Was it the impeding layoffs in housing, retail and autos? Maybe the Fed felt it won the battle against inflation now that oil prices are plunging and both Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) and Walmart (WMT - Get Report) are lowering prices every day.
No matter what the Fed's reasoning, one thing is for sure Cramer said, and that's the fact that negative economic data will be coming soon to a TV screen near you.
Many economists and academics argue that in absolute terms, interest rates remain historically low and therefore cannot negatively impact the economy. But, Cramer said, comparatively speaking, that 5% mortgage rate costs a whole lot more than the 3% rate consumers are now used to.
That's why he suggested keeping money on the sidelines, and even taking some profits, going into this weekend. He said there's no particular ticking time bomb, but there is considerable risk coming from the ongoing trade talks, or lack thereof.
Over on Real Money, Cramer says to brace for weaker data, and wait for the outcome of Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Get more of his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
Executive Decision: Dollar Tree
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer also sat down with Gary Philbin, president and CEO of Dollar Tree (DLTR - Get Report) , the discount retailer that soared 6.1% on what was viewed as mixed quarterly results.
Philbin explained this quarter was the first to offer some clarity for investors on their Family Dollar acquisition last year. The company is seeing great success after renovating Family Dollar locations, which is why they're accelerating those renovations with a goal of 1,000 locations next year alone. Customers continue to love the treasure hunt experience at all of Dollar Tree's locations, he said, especially around the holidays.
When asked about tariffs, Philbin said they expect tariffs to rise to 25%, but fortunately they have a long history of controlling their supply chain to extract the margins they require. They can change many variables, from how an item is made and where it's made to how it's packaged and delivered.
Speaking of deliveries, Philbin added that the shortage of truck drivers is become a real issue for the industry and they don't expect to see relief until mid-2019.
Executive Decision: SoFi
In his final "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer welcomed back Anthony Nodo, CEO of SoFi, to discuss the non-bank lending market.
Nodo started off by explaining that SoFi takes a long-term view of their members and it isn't out to make short-term gains from them. Their goal is to be a one-stop shop for all financial products and their newest offerings allows members to save, spend and pay bills all from one easy to use account with no fees or restrictions.
Sofi is about more than just banking though, the company also focused on career and financial education advice for every stage of life.
When asked whether non-bank lenders take more risks, Nodo said that Sofi has strong risk controls in place and they're about making quality loans and are not shooting for quantity. The company's current student loan default rate is currently under 1%.
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