contributors are in the business of trading and investing all day on the basis of ongoing news flow. Below, we offer the top five ideas that
contributors posted today and how they played those ideas.
brings you the news all day, and with
's "Columnist Conversation," you can see how the pros are playing it on a real-time basis. Here are the top five ideas from today:
1. Intel and JPMorgan Stocks Discount Better Earnings
By Doug Kass
8:08 a.m. EST
Surprise No. 1:
There is a glaring upside to first-quarter 2010 corporate profits (up 100% year over year) and first-quarter 2010 GDP (up 4.5%). It grows clear that, owing to continued draconian cost cuts, coupled with a series of positive economic releases and a long list of company profit guidance increases in mid to late January and early February, there is a very large upside to first-quarter GDP (up 4.5%) and, even more important, to S&P profit growth (which doubles!). The upside on both counts is in sharp contrast to more muted growth expectations. While corporate managers, economists and strategists raise earnings per share, full-year growth and S&P target estimates, surprisingly, the U.S. equity market fails to respond positively to the much better growth dynamic, and the S&P 500 remains tightly range-bound (between 1,050 and 1,150) into spring 2010.-- Doug Kass, " 20 Surprises for 2010"
The next week will give us a sense as to whether stock prices have begun to fully discount better-than-expected reported fourth- and anticipated first-quarter earnings, which was my principal surprise for 2010 (above).
are the first important reads, and thus far, both stocks, after experiencing better-than-expected results, have seemingly discounted the better profit news.
I believe this to be the case.
Long JPM shares; short JPM calls.
2. TAO May Be a Good Short
By Robert Moreno
9:47 a.m. EST
Claymore AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF
is a passive index strategy fund that tracks the AlphaShares China Real Estate Index. TAO gained 66% in 2009 and has a yield of 2.05%. The fund has assets of only $84.52 million and average daily volume of about 120,000 shares.
Michael McDonough has done an excellent series in Columnist Conversation recently about the likelihood of China tightening accommodating lending policies, so I thought I'd take a technical look at TAO.
The chart looks decidedly negative and appears to be breaking down from a "wedge" consolidation formation. There were three attempts to break higher out of the range, all of which failed, and now we see a violation of the support line with a surge in volume. The volume-by-price indicator illustrates volume action inside the consolidation zone and confirms the action to the sell side. The relative strength indicator (RSI) shows waning momentum over the last several months.
TAO, like any China stock/ETF, can be a volatile trade, and shorting any stock requires disciplined money management, but this one looks like a shorting opportunity.
3. CF Abandons Terra Bid
By Sham Gad
10:35 a.m. EST
announced that they have dropped their interest in acquiring
, having disposed of all of its holdings in the company. This removes a key obstacle in
offer for CF. While CF still finds AGU's bid too low, CF shares are up more than 4% while AGU shares are down nearly 4% -- typical market behavior in an M&A deal. The current AGU offer values CF at nearly $110, with CF still trading at $96. Stay tuned.
4. Exiting the Last of my Jan GLD Trade
By Timothy Collins
10:52 a.m. EST
I am selling the last bit of my Jan 109-113-115 call combo spread on
SPDR Gold Trust
for around $1.80. These were bought earlier in the week at $1.30.
Still long Feb 109 calls.
5. AT&T Yield
By Gary Dvorchak
11:32 a.m. EST
went ex-dividend on Jan. 6, so it does have yield, but you are not collecting any cash again until April ... a lifetime in this market!
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.