Top Takes From RealMoney
The RealMoney contributors are in the business of trading and investing all day on the basis of ongoing news flow. Below, we offer the top five ideas that RealMoney contributors posted today and how they played those ideas.
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1. Continuing Unemployment Claims
By Robert Marcin
1:42 p.m. EDT
Since I believe that the economic recovery is highly dependent on a recovery in employment conditions, I keep an eye out for the continuing claims data. Since the recession began, multiple jobless benefits programs have been added to the standard federal benefits program. One must add three programs to get the proper number of jobless claimants.
Despite the tick down in the standard program, the supplemental programs have been growing rapidly. There are now almost 10 million workers receiving unemployment compensation and the "green shoot" in the standard data doesn't matter in the whole.
No positions.
2. TCF Financial CEO Speaks Out
By Tim Melvin
1:12 p.m. EDT
Bill Cooper of
TCF Financial
(TCB)
continues to impress me. He is the kind of CEO I want to see running the nations financial institutions. He was just on TV criticizing the TARP program and related stimulus programs. He basically said he felt force to take the TARP money or be labeled as a weak bank. He also said that the system was taking money form the strong institutions to give to bailout the unhealthy ones.
TCF was recently identified by
Barclays
(BCS) - Get Report
as having one of the best balance sheets of all regional banks. The stock is at the top of my "I want to buy this bank on a selloff and own it for the rest of my life" list.
No positions.
3. Moody's Getting Hit
By Gary Morrow
12:47 p.m. EDT
Moody's
(MCO) - Get Report
is off over 8% this morning, testing important support in the process.
This weakness follows reports that the company must defend itself against subprime mortgages claims. The danger is that the stock will take out the solid support it has enjoyed from its 200-day moving average over the past five months.
After putting in a double-bottom near $15.50, Moody's began a powerful recovery rally in late March. The stock more than doubled in price by the time it ran out of steam in early May. A healthy pullback followed as average volume began to decline. Moody's has maintained a tight range while working off the huge spring rally. Each time the stock dipped down to its 200-day throughout the past four months, it has recovered. Extremely heavy selling in late July did not break this trend.
Heavy volume is pushing the stock down again, and another big test of 200-day support is under way. A hold would be quite an accomplishment. The stock may have used up all the support its 200-day can offer. How the stock closes out this week will be key.
No positions
4. Treasury Supply
By Tom Graff
11:09 a.m. EDT
The Treasury announced details of next week's bond auctions. The 10- and 30-year bonds will be re-openings, and the three-year will be a new security. In total, the size of the 3/10/30 cycle will be slightly smaller than the August auctions. The three-year will be $1 billion larger at $38 billion, but the 10-year will be $3 billion smaller at $20 billion, and the 30-year will be $2 billion smaller at $15 billion.
It's a little curious, because the Treasury has told the market it expects to
increase
the average maturity of outstanding debt, which would suggest making the shorter-term auctions smaller and the longer-term maturities larger.
The market seems a bit confused by this as well, extending the day's losses mildly on the news.
No positions.
5. Not All Sentiment Polls Look Alike
By Rick Bensignor
8:53 a.m. EDT
My favorite of all sentiment polls is the Daily Sentiment Index -- a poll of non-professional futures traders. It give s a very good clue of what John Q. Public is thinking. Unlike other polls, which tend to see extreme readings at beneath 35% or above 65%, this poll doesn't really hit extreme until roughly 85-90% bulls, or only 15-10% bulls.
For the
S&P
futures, today shows 74% bulls, down from 87% bulls just four trading days ago. Moreover, its nine-day moving average is 83% bulls. These are somewhat lofty levels, but not as high as they were recently. Nonetheless, three out of four are bullish equities.
Other interesting and even more extreme readings are sugar at 86%, down from 95% just two days ago; corn at 10% and a nine-day moving average of 13%; wheat at 12% and a nine-day average of 14%: natural gas at 11% and a nine-day average of 11%.
No positions.
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.
